TMB

Cyclicals

Công ty Cổ phần Kinh doanh Than Miền Bắc - Vinacomin

Tài nguyên Cơ bản/Khai khoángCT

56.000

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Very Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

40.652

Current

56.000

Gap

-27.4%

ModelEV EBITDA MIDCYCLE

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Tài nguyên Cơ bản→Cyclical

Classified as cyclical because ICB sector "Tài nguyên Cơ bản" maps to the cyclical group

ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle

Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

Distressed Valuation

Negative Equity Value Bvps Floor

BVPS

58.074

Discount

70%

Floor Value

58.074

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — TMB

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Weak

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-4.53

Low Risk

DSRI

0.807

GMI

0.904

AQI

1.155

SGI

0.723

DEPI

0.978

SGAI

1.245

TATA

-0.344

LVGI

0.933

TMB's Beneish M-Score of -4.526 indicates a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is well below the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality score of 44.7/100, particularly low scores in revenue recognition and margin, raises concerns about the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags

Earnings Quality Score of 44.7/100, with a revenue score of 0.0/100 indicating potential issues in revenue recognition.
SGAI of 1.2445 suggests aggressive spending on sales and marketing, which may not translate into revenue growth.

Positive Signals

Beneish M-Score of -4.526 indicates low likelihood of earnings manipulation, suggesting a more reliable financial reporting.
High cash conversion score of 100.0/100 indicates strong cash flow generation relative to earnings.

Ownership Risk

The majority ownership by Tập đoàn Công nghiệp Than - Khoáng sản Việt Nam (67.4%) suggests a lack of diverse shareholder interests, which may lead to governance risks and potential misalignment of management incentives with minority shareholders.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor TMB's revenue recognition practices and overall earnings quality. Consider a cautious approach to investment until improvements in earnings sustainability and governance structures are evident.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

5/9

Neutral

Z-Score

9.79

Safe Zone

Sharpe

-1.53

Negative

Composite

Poor

Price Risk

Momentum

-22.2%

Volatility

28.2%

Max Drawdown

-31.6%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

10.38P/E

P/B0.96

P/S0.03

ROE9.4%

ROA2.2%

EPS5393.41

BVPS58073.82

Gross Margin4.2%

Net Margin0.3%

D/E2.81

Current Ratio1.31

Rev Growth-27.7%

Profit Growth-59.5%

EV/EBITDA14.07

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

15.0M

Charter Capital

150.0B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Tài nguyên Cơ bản

Industry (ICB L3)

Khai khoáng

Sub-industry

Khai thác Than

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for TMB — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Tập đoàn Công nghiệp Than - Khoáng sản Việt Nam

Inst

67.4%

10.1 trieu

Vũ Hữu Long

Indiv

0.1%

15.000

Board & Management

Vũ Hữu Long0.1%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Minh Hải

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Đặng Thị Hải Hà

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Phạm Văn Hảo

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Trần Minh Tâm

Trưởng Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ

Nguyễn Anh Toán

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Ngô Quang Trung

Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Đức Vinh

Trưởng phòng Tài chính - Kế toán/Kế toán trưởng

Cao Thị Nhung

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Bùi Thị Phương Thảo

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Vũ Huy Phương

Người phụ trách quản trị công ty

Nguyễn Anh Chung

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Phạm Tuấn Ngọc

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Top connections

DTK99.3%MVB98.2%KSV98.1%VTM95.2%VBG92.0%MGC86.6%HLC74.2%TVD67.4%CST67.4%MDC67.4%NBC67.4%TD667.4%

Computed 12/04/2026