VBG
CyclicalsValuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Valuation Track Record
Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — VBG
Earnings Quality
Fiscal year 2024
Financial Forensics
Beneish M-Score · 2024
VBG exhibits several concerning financial metrics, particularly with a Beneish M-Score of -2.5028, indicating a low likelihood of manipulation but raising questions about earnings quality. The earnings quality score of 52.2/100, combined with poor cash conversion metrics, suggests potential issues in revenue recognition and operational efficiency.
- Earnings Quality Score of 52.2/100 indicates moderate risk, particularly due to an eq_cash_conv score of 0.0/100, suggesting no cash conversion from earnings.
- SGI of 1.1483 indicates aggressive sales growth, which may not be sustainable given the low eq_margin score of 40.1/100.
- The DSRI of 1.0147 is close to 1, indicating that inventory levels are in line with sales, which is a positive sign.
- High eq_receivables score of 100.0/100 suggests effective management of receivables, which could indicate strong customer relationships.
The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with Tập đoàn Công nghiệp Than - Khoáng sản Việt Nam holding 92.0% and the state holding 51.0%. This could lead to potential governance issues and reduced accountability.
Investors should closely monitor VBG's cash flow and revenue recognition practices, given the low cash conversion rate. It may be prudent to adopt a cautious approach until clearer operational efficiencies are demonstrated.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
Company Overview
// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK
> mapping common ownership for VBG — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate