NSS
Công ty Cổ phần Nông súc sản Đồng Nai
Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 3.700
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 5.045
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- The closing price is too old for comparison.
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
- The latest cash flow is zero or negative.
Also note
- The model’s gap was capped before calibration.
- Net cash exceeds the market value of the company; the step from enterprise value to equity needs a check.
- Historical growth has declined.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 22 Nov 2024
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.
Technical details
Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).
Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.
Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
DCF Sensitivity
Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 3.6688th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 0.0%2nd pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company’s Beneish M-Score is -1.5499 (79th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +0.72, indicating its accruals- and revenue-related ratios are more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers and have moved materially year-on-year. Earnings-quality metrics are weak overall (28.2/100), driven especially by cash conversion (0.0/100) and margin quality (0.0/100), while the Altman Z-Score is 2.84 (the ‘grey zone’ for bankruptcy distance) and the Piotroski F-Score is 4/9 (neutral).
- Beneish M-Score = -1.5499: measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation using eight financial ratios; this score is above the US -1.78 cutoff and sits at the 79th percentile among Vietnamese peers (higher values imply more aggressive signals), and it rose by +0.72 year-over-year (the trajectory is a secondary cue).
- AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 2.4325: part of the M-Score that rises when non-current assets (like intangibles, other assets) increase relative to total assets; a high AQI can signal capitalising or reclassifying costs or growth in non-trade assets.
- SGAI (Sales, General & Admin Index) = 1.6308: measures growth in S,G&A relative to sales; a value >1 indicates S,G&A growing faster than sales, which can be a pressure point for earnings quality.
- TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = 0.1299: measures accrual-based component of earnings; a positive TATA of ~13.0% of assets indicates earnings are being supported by accruals rather than cash flow.
- Cash conversion (3‑year operating cash flow / net profit) = 3.66 (88th percentile among VN companies): this high ratio (low cash conversion relative to profit) signals profits are not converting into cash compared with peers.
- Earnings-quality sub-scores: Cash conversion = 0.0/100 and Margin quality = 0.0/100, indicating especially weak signals for cash-based earnings and stable gross/net margins.
- DSRI (Days Sales in Receivables Index) = 1.0875: indicates receivables have risen modestly relative to sales (about an 8.8% increase in DSRI), not an extreme spike in days receivable.
- GMI (Gross Margin Index) = 0.9962: a value slightly below 1 means gross margin has been stable or slightly improved year-over-year, which is not a strong deterioration signal.
- DEPI (Depreciation Index) = 0.8757 and LVGI (Leverage Index) = 0.8231: DEPI <1 implies depreciation rates may have increased (or asset base aged) rather than decreased to boost profits; LVGI <1 implies leverage has not increased relative to assets, reducing leverage-related manipulation pressure.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 0.0% of total assets (2nd percentile among VN companies): there is no measurable stock of long-term receivables, prepayments outside trade, or related-party lending reported as a ratio of assets, which reduces one common area of concern.
Ownership is highly concentrated: Tổng Công ty Công Nghiệp Thực Phẩm Đồng Nai holds 84.3% (institutional, state-related industrial food conglomerate), with one individual at 7.9% and the remainder dispersed; concentrated majority control raises single-shareholder influence over governance and reporting choices. No director-deal registrations were provided in the dataset.
- Compare the components of AQI (notes or schedules on 'other long-term assets' and 'intangible assets') in the FY2025 balance sheet and the related accounting policy note to see what drove AQI to 2.4325.
- Reconcile operating cash flow to profit: verify the three-year operating cash flow and net profit lines in the cash flow statement and profit & loss to confirm the cash conversion ratio of 3.66.
- Inspect the notes on related-party transactions, loans receivable and prepayments to confirm the 0.0% receivables-outside-trade-cycle figure and to check for any disclosure of off‑balance-sheet or unconsolidated group items.
- Review the S,G&A disclosure and segment / cost breakdown that explain SGAI = 1.6308 (note or schedule showing S,G&A expense and how it changed relative to revenue).
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.23
- P/S
- 0.53
- ROE
- 0.3%
- ROA
- 0.3%
- EPS
- 56
- BVPS
- 16.098
- Gross Margin
- −0.8%
- Net Margin
- 0.8%
- D/E
- 0.00
- Current Ratio
- 10.02
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 10.3M
- Charter Capital
- 103B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Thực phẩm và đồ uống
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Sản xuất thực phẩm
- Sub-industry
- Nuôi trồng nông & hải sản
- Company Type
- CT