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NSS

Công ty Cổ phần Nông súc sản Đồng Nai

VietnamConsumerThực phẩm và đồ uốngSản xuất thực phẩmUPCOMCT
3.700
VND · Last close

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+36.3%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
3.700
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
5.045

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • The closing price is too old for comparison.
  • Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
  • The latest cash flow is zero or negative.

Also note

  • The model’s gap was capped before calibration.
  • Net cash exceeds the market value of the company; the step from enterprise value to equity needs a check.
  • Historical growth has declined.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Thực phẩm và đồ uống→Consumer
Classified as consumer because ICB sector “Thực phẩm và đồ uống” maps to the consumer group.
ModelFCF-Based DCF
Intrinsic = 70% x DCF Value + 30% x (Fair P/E x EPS)

A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.

Technical details
Why this model

Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).

How it works

Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.

Best for

Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.36%
+
Betasector default
0.910
x
ERP
4.38%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
11.10%
Ke
11.10%
x
E/(D+E)
100.00%
+
Kd(1-t)
0.00%
x
D/(D+E)
0.00%
=
WACC
11.10%
2
Growth Estimate
historical blend4.00%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
Base FCF→29.15B
Projection years→10
4
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→3.700
Calibrated value vs last close→+36.3%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
5.045
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Discount rate (WACC)11.10%
Growth rate4.00%growth method: historical blend
Base cash flow29.1 tỷone off strip ratio: 0

DCF Sensitivity

Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.

WACC \ Growth1.0%2.5%4.0%5.5%7.0%
9.1%5.0455.0455.0455.0455.045
10.1%5.0455.0455.0455.0455.045
11.1%5.0455.0455.0455.0455.045
12.1%5.0455.0455.0455.0455.045
13.1%5.0455.0455.0455.0455.045
Above market priceBelow market priceCurrent estimate
Feeds valuation:Cost of capitalGrowthModel inputsFinal calculation
Line item20262025202420232022202120202019201820172016
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·150155161158192·137144211420
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·220.6610·31311726
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·12714411583114·6066145346
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·12224·4555
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·0.010.20.020.20.09·0.06331
Net Inventories
·197436865·43434542
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·197436865·43435042
Other current assets
·0.60.50.700·0000.4
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·3029405665·78829493
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·1723293644·61656258
Tangible fixed assets
·914202533·49525753
Intagible fixed assets
·89101011·121355
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·110.811·0.9188
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)
·11111·1188
Less: Provision for diminuation in value of long term investments
·00−0.200·−0.2000
Other non-current assets
·124102020·15161518
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·124102020·15161518
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·180184201214258·215227306513
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·1519303933·261822112
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·1519303933·261822112
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·44,97800.10.50.4·0.020.20.040
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·00000·0.20.30.30.3
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)Discount rate (WACC)
·165165171175225·189208284401
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·165165171174224·188207282399
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·103103103103103·103103103103
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·6262626262·6262204297
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·0.80.761060·2443−250
Budget sources and other funds
·000.20.40.6·1112
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·180184201214258·215227306513
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·103103103103103·103103103103

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
28
Poor
Accrual Quality
52
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
55
Margin Stability
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
75th–90th
M −1.55 · 79th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +0.72
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
1.088
GMI
0.996
AQI
2.433
SGI
0.697
DEPI
0.876
SGAI
1.631
TATA
0.130
LVGI
0.823

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
3.6688th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
0.0%2nd pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

The company’s Beneish M-Score is -1.5499 (79th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +0.72, indicating its accruals- and revenue-related ratios are more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers and have moved materially year-on-year. Earnings-quality metrics are weak overall (28.2/100), driven especially by cash conversion (0.0/100) and margin quality (0.0/100), while the Altman Z-Score is 2.84 (the ‘grey zone’ for bankruptcy distance) and the Piotroski F-Score is 4/9 (neutral).

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score = -1.5499: measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation using eight financial ratios; this score is above the US -1.78 cutoff and sits at the 79th percentile among Vietnamese peers (higher values imply more aggressive signals), and it rose by +0.72 year-over-year (the trajectory is a secondary cue).
  • AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 2.4325: part of the M-Score that rises when non-current assets (like intangibles, other assets) increase relative to total assets; a high AQI can signal capitalising or reclassifying costs or growth in non-trade assets.
  • SGAI (Sales, General & Admin Index) = 1.6308: measures growth in S,G&A relative to sales; a value >1 indicates S,G&A growing faster than sales, which can be a pressure point for earnings quality.
  • TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = 0.1299: measures accrual-based component of earnings; a positive TATA of ~13.0% of assets indicates earnings are being supported by accruals rather than cash flow.
  • Cash conversion (3‑year operating cash flow / net profit) = 3.66 (88th percentile among VN companies): this high ratio (low cash conversion relative to profit) signals profits are not converting into cash compared with peers.
  • Earnings-quality sub-scores: Cash conversion = 0.0/100 and Margin quality = 0.0/100, indicating especially weak signals for cash-based earnings and stable gross/net margins.
Positive Signals
  • DSRI (Days Sales in Receivables Index) = 1.0875: indicates receivables have risen modestly relative to sales (about an 8.8% increase in DSRI), not an extreme spike in days receivable.
  • GMI (Gross Margin Index) = 0.9962: a value slightly below 1 means gross margin has been stable or slightly improved year-over-year, which is not a strong deterioration signal.
  • DEPI (Depreciation Index) = 0.8757 and LVGI (Leverage Index) = 0.8231: DEPI <1 implies depreciation rates may have increased (or asset base aged) rather than decreased to boost profits; LVGI <1 implies leverage has not increased relative to assets, reducing leverage-related manipulation pressure.
  • Receivables outside the trade cycle = 0.0% of total assets (2nd percentile among VN companies): there is no measurable stock of long-term receivables, prepayments outside trade, or related-party lending reported as a ratio of assets, which reduces one common area of concern.
Ownership Risk

Ownership is highly concentrated: Tổng Công ty Công Nghiệp Thực Phẩm Đồng Nai holds 84.3% (institutional, state-related industrial food conglomerate), with one individual at 7.9% and the remainder dispersed; concentrated majority control raises single-shareholder influence over governance and reporting choices. No director-deal registrations were provided in the dataset.

To check in the filings
  • Compare the components of AQI (notes or schedules on 'other long-term assets' and 'intangible assets') in the FY2025 balance sheet and the related accounting policy note to see what drove AQI to 2.4325.
  • Reconcile operating cash flow to profit: verify the three-year operating cash flow and net profit lines in the cash flow statement and profit & loss to confirm the cash conversion ratio of 3.66.
  • Inspect the notes on related-party transactions, loans receivable and prepayments to confirm the 0.0% receivables-outside-trade-cycle figure and to check for any disclosure of off‑balance-sheet or unconsolidated group items.
  • Review the S,G&A disclosure and segment / cost breakdown that explain SGAI = 1.6308 (note or schedule showing S,G&A expense and how it changed relative to revenue).

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
4/9
Neutral
Z-Score
2.84
Grey Zone
Sharpe
1.13
Above 1
Composite
51
50 to 69
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✗Operating CF > 0
✗ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✗Lower Leverage
✓Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✓Margin Up
✗Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.75×Interest Burden0.78×Op. Margin0.01×Turnover0.39×Leverage1.09=ROE0.3%
Price Risk
Momentum
−0.9%
Volatility
56.1%
Max Drawdown
−0.9%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
66.60P/E
P/B
0.23
P/S
0.53
ROE
0.3%
ROA
0.3%
EPS
56
BVPS
16.098
Gross Margin
−0.8%
Net Margin
0.8%
D/E
0.00
Current Ratio
10.02
EV/EBITDA
—
Div Yield
—

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
10.3M
Charter Capital
103B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Thực phẩm và đồ uống
Industry (ICB L3)
Sản xuất thực phẩm
Sub-industry
Nuôi trồng nông & hải sản
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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