TMW

Cyclicals

Công ty Cổ phần Tổng hợp Gỗ Tân Mai

Tài nguyên Cơ bản/Lâm nghiệp và GiấyCT

23.400

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

18.618

Current

23.400

Gap

-20.4%

ModelEV EBITDA MIDCYCLE

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Tài nguyên Cơ bản→Cyclical

Classified as cyclical because ICB sector "Tài nguyên Cơ bản" maps to the cyclical group

ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle

Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

Model Inputs

Mid-Cycle EBITDA→10.77B

Fair EV/EBITDA→5.0x

Years of data→7

Valuation

Mid-Cycle EBITDA

10.77B

Fair EV/EBITDA

5.0x

Net Debt

-32.76B

Equity Value

18.618

Years of data→7

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — TMW

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2024

Good

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2024

-2.01

Moderate

DSRI

0.833

GMI

1.072

AQI

0.900

SGI

1.282

DEPI

0.837

SGAI

0.755

TATA

0.031

LVGI

0.388

TMW exhibits several concerning financial metrics, particularly a Beneish M-Score of -2.0145, which indicates a low likelihood of earnings manipulation. However, the earnings quality score of 70.7 suggests moderate reliability in reported earnings, though specific components raise concerns about revenue and margin quality.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of -2.0145 indicates potential manipulation risk, as it is below the threshold of -1.78.
Earnings quality margin score of 14.1/100 and revenue score of 17.2/100 are significantly low, indicating potential issues with profitability and revenue recognition.

Positive Signals

Earnings quality score of 70.7/100 and accrual score of 87.5/100 indicate a generally reliable earnings reporting framework.
Strong institutional ownership with Công ty Cổ phần Thanh Bình and Công ty TNHH Thanh Bình holding a combined 100.2% suggests a stable governance structure.

Ownership Risk

The high concentration of ownership among a few institutions (over 100% combined) could lead to governance risks, as minority shareholders may have limited influence over corporate decisions.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor TMW's earnings quality and revenue recognition practices, while considering a cautious approach due to elevated risks associated with ownership concentration and low margin quality.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

6/9

Neutral

Z-Score

5.74

Safe Zone

Sharpe

0.23

Positive

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

+67.7%

Volatility

159.4%

Max Drawdown

-50.0%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2024

2.68P/E

P/B0.87

P/S0.93

ROE38.1%

ROA29.5%

EPS8760.99

BVPS26882.26

Gross Margin17.1%

Net Margin34.7%

D/E0.15

Current Ratio7.42

Rev Growth28.2%

Profit Growth304.2%

EV/EBITDA4.23

Div Yield4.3%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

4.7M

Charter Capital

46.6B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Tài nguyên Cơ bản

Industry (ICB L3)

Lâm nghiệp và Giấy

Sub-industry

Lâm sản và Chế biến gỗ

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for TMW — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Công ty Cổ phần Thanh Bình

Inst

53.2%

2.5 trieu

Công ty TNHH Thanh Bình

Inst

47.0%

2.2 trieu

Tổng Công ty Công Nghiệp Thực Phẩm Đồng Nai

Inst

33.1%

1.5 trieu

Quỹ Đầu Tư Phát Triển Đồng Nai

Inst

6.5%

302.000

Lê Thị Mơ

Indiv

0.5%

22.250

Lý Mỹ Hà

Indiv

0.4%

20.000

Cao Tấn Thành

Indiv

0.3%

14.950

Huỳnh Thị Thanh Vân

Indiv

0.3%

13.100

Dương Thị Mỹ Dung

Indiv

0.3%

12.750

Cao Thị Ánh Tuyết

Indiv

0.2%

11.000

Nguyễn Hữu Trí

Indiv

0.2%

9.400

Lê Quý Minh

Indiv

0.2%

7.900

Cao Thị Cúc

Indiv

0.1%

5.000

Board & Management

Dương Thị Mỹ Dung0.3%

Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Lê Thị Xuân Hằng

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Phạm Ngọc Tuyết Vân

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Kế toán trưởng

Nguyễn Thị Bích Liên

Phó Giám đốc

Nguyễn Diên Anh Khoa

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Phạm Văn Sơ

Phó Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Tăng Trần Tuấn Khải

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Phạm Lan Đình

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Tử Mục

Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Thị Kim Trang

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin

Phạm Phước Bình

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

An Thị Phượng

Phó Giám đốc

Top connections

NSS84.3%PSL73.6%UPS72.3%DOC72.1%IRC65.8%DNT3 links VLB49.1%BHG24.1%FGL19.6%SZL6.5%SZB6.5%CET4.1%

Computed 12/04/2026