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Consumer sector

PSL

Consumer
Công ty Cổ phần Chăn nuôi Phú Sơn
Thực phẩm và đồ uống/Sản xuất thực phẩmCT
12.000
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
9.412
Current
12.000
Gap
-21.6%
ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CTThực phẩm và đồ uốngConsumer
Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Thực phẩm và đồ uống" maps to the consumer group
ModelFCF-Based DCF
Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.800
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
10.10%
Ke
10.10%
x
E/(D+E)
92.23%
+
Kd(1-t)
6.33%
x
D/(D+E)
7.77%
=
WACC
10.00%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend4.00%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
Base FCF5.96B
Projection years10
4
Valuation
Base FCF
5.96B
Growth Rate
4.00%
WACC
10.00%
Terminal Growth
4.00%
DCF Value
9.412
Value Decomposition
43%
57%
Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — PSL

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2024

74
Good
Accrual Quality
95
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
35
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2024

-2.43
Moderate
DSRI
0.661
GMI
0.760
AQI
1.318
SGI
1.253
DEPI
1.092
SGAI
0.880
TATA
-0.013
LVGI
0.499

PSL exhibits a moderate risk level primarily due to its Beneish M-Score of -2.432, indicating a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation. However, the earnings quality metrics reveal significant weaknesses, particularly in revenue recognition, which could raise concerns about the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags
  • The SGI of 1.2529 suggests aggressive growth strategies that may not be supported by actual sales, indicating potential revenue manipulation.
  • The eq_margin score of 34.9/100 is low, reflecting poor profitability relative to revenue, which could signal issues in operational efficiency.
Positive Signals
  • The earnings quality score of 73.9/100, particularly high cash conversion (100.0/100) and receivables management (100.0/100), indicates strong cash flow management.
  • The DSRI of 0.6614 suggests that inventory levels are being managed effectively relative to sales, which is a positive sign in the context of potential overproduction.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with Tổng Công ty Công Nghiệp Thực Phẩm Đồng Nai holding 73.6% of shares, which could lead to governance issues and reduced minority shareholder influence.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor PSL's revenue recognition practices and operational efficiency while considering a cautious approach due to the concentrated ownership structure. Engaging with management on future growth strategies may provide additional insights.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
7/9
Strong
Z-Score
8.83
Safe Zone
Sharpe
-0.07
Negative
Composite
46
Weak
Price Risk
Momentum
-12.9%
Volatility
88.2%
Max Drawdown
-42.1%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2024
42.71P/E
P/B0.92
P/S0.87
ROE3.6%
ROA3.1%
EPS450.21
BVPS12576.70
Gross Margin7.4%
Net Margin3.4%
D/E0.08
Current Ratio6.95
Rev Growth25.3%
Profit Growth-34.9%
EV/EBITDA14.07
Div Yield2.2%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
11.8M
Charter Capital
118.1B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Thực phẩm và đồ uống
Industry (ICB L3)
Sản xuất thực phẩm
Sub-industry
Nuôi trồng nông & hải sản
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for PSL — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Tổng Công ty Công Nghiệp Thực Phẩm Đồng Nai
Inst
73.6%
8.7 trieu
Hà Văn Sơn
Indiv
1.8%
218.176
Lê Văn Mẽ
Indiv
0.8%
34.425
Võ Thị Loan
Indiv
0.3%
15.345
Trần Văn Cẩn
Indiv
0.3%
14.820
Nguyễn Văn Khâm
Indiv
0.3%
36.847
Nguyễn Anh
Indiv
0.3%
13.860
Vũ Quang Khải
Indiv
0.3%
13.860
Nguyễn Minh Quang
Indiv
0.2%
9.480
Đinh Trung Liêm
Indiv
0.2%
7.665
Vương Thị Kim Được
Indiv
0.1%
15.001
Đỗ Văn Trong
Indiv
0.1%
14.017
Board & Management
Đỗ Văn Trong0.1%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Giám đốc
Vũ Quang Tiến
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Trương Nguyễn Ngọc Hòa
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Thị Hiền
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Thị Diệu Linh
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Đinh Văn Hồng
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Lê Thị Anh
Kế toán trưởng
Nguyễn Diên Anh Khoa
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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