NTL

Real Estate

Công ty Cổ phần Phát triển Đô thị Từ Liêm

Bất động sảnCT

16.300

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Very Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

42.420

Current

16.300

Gap

+160.3%

ModelDCF LEVERAGE SCREEN

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Bất động sản→Real Estate

Classified as real estate because ICB sector "Bất động sản" maps to the real estate group

ModelRNAV + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 40% x (BVPS x 1.5) + 60% x DCF Value

Real estate developers in Vietnam report land banks at historical acquisition cost (Vietnamese Accounting Standards don't allow revaluation). This means book value severely understates true asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (revalued net asset value, applying a 1.5x factor to book value) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.300

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

13.60%

E/(D+E)

80.71%

Kd(1-t)

5.72%

D/(D+E)

19.29%

WACC

12.08%

+2% WACC penalty (high leverage)

Growth Estimate

Sector Default3.00%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

40%RNAV Proxy

16.534

60%DCF Value

59.678

Blended Intrinsic

42.420

Value Decomposition

39%

61%

Explicit period (39%)Terminal value (61%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — NTL

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Poor

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2024

-3.54

Low Risk

DSRI

0.386

GMI

0.921

AQI

0.495

SGI

1.577

DEPI

0.794

SGAI

1.075

TATA

-0.178

LVGI

0.685

NTL's Beneish M-Score of -3.5421 indicates a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is well below the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality score of 44.5/100 raises concerns, particularly in receivables and revenue recognition, which could signal potential issues in financial reporting.

Red Flags

Earnings Quality Score of 44.5/100, with 0.0/100 in eq_receivables and eq_revenue, indicating poor management of receivables and revenue recognition.
SGI of 1.5769 suggests aggressive growth that may not be sustainable, raising concerns about the quality of reported earnings.

Positive Signals

Beneish M-Score of -3.5421 indicates a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, suggesting a more reliable financial reporting framework.
High cash conversion score of 100.0/100 indicates strong cash flow generation relative to earnings.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure shows significant individual holdings, with Đinh Quang Chiến holding 14.8%, which may lead to potential governance issues or conflicts of interest. However, institutional presence at 20% provides some level of oversight.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor NTL's revenue recognition practices and the sustainability of its growth. Consider a cautious approach, potentially waiting for improved earnings quality metrics before making significant investments.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

3/9

Weak

Z-Score

6.34

Safe Zone

Sharpe

-0.01

Negative

Composite

Weak

Price Risk

Momentum

+9.1%

Volatility

34.9%

Max Drawdown

-33.5%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

98.83P/E

P/B1.28

P/S117.68

ROE1.2%

ROA1.0%

EPS171.01

BVPS13226.86

Gross Margin8.8%

Net Margin119.1%

D/E0.17

Current Ratio7.02

Rev Growth-98.8%

Profit Growth-96.6%

EV/EBITDA-43.92

Div Yield5.9%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

122.0M

Charter Capital

1219.8B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Bất động sản

Industry (ICB L3)

Bất động sản

Sub-industry

Bất động sản

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for NTL — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Đinh Quang Chiến

Indiv

14.8%

18.0 trieu

Vũ Gia Cường

Indiv

6.0%

7.4 trieu

Luminous Vietnam and Indochina Growth Fund

Inst

5.1%

3.5 trieu

PYN Elite Fund

Inst

5.0%

6.1 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Quản lý quỹ đầu tư MB

Inst

4.9%

3.0 trieu

Trần Thị Mừng

Indiv

4.9%

3.0 trieu

Quỹ Đầu tư Chứng Khoán Năng động DC

Inst

4.6%

2.8 trieu

asiavantage global limited

Inst

4.6%

2.9 trieu

Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellchaft, London Branch

Inst

4.4%

2.8 trieu

Quỹ Đầu tư Tăng trưởng Việt Nam (VF2)

Inst

4.3%

2.7 trieu

nguyen-thi-mai

Indiv

3.2%

3.9 trieu

Lê Minh Quân

Indiv

2.1%

1.3 trieu

Lê Minh Tuấn

Indiv

1.7%

2.1 trieu

KITMC Worldwide Vietnam RSP Balanced Fund

Inst

1.3%

809.570

Nguyễn Văn Ninh

Indiv

1.2%

790.552

Nguyễn Hữu Lập

Indiv

0.9%

549.412

Nguyễn Ngọc Thắng

Indiv

0.7%

859.112

Nguyễn Hồng Khiêm

Indiv

0.7%

868.148

Quỹ Đầu tư Cổ phiếu Tập trung Cổ tức DC

Inst

0.6%

98.240

Công ty TNHH MTV Quản Lý Quỹ Ngân Hàng Thương Mại Cổ phần Công Thương Việt Nam

Inst

0.5%

297.000

Nguyễn Thị Thúy Trinh

Indiv

0.4%

502.072

Nguyễn Ngọc Thịnh

Indiv

0.2%

108.000

Lê Anh Tuấn

Indiv

0.2%

200.000

Board & Management

Đinh Quang Chiến14.8%

Thành viên Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ/Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Vũ Gia Cường6.0%

Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Lê Minh Tuân1.7%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ

Nguyễn Văn Ninh1.2%

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Hữu Lập0.9%

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Hồng Khiêm0.7%

Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Hải Long

Thành viên Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ

Trần Quang Hiện

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập/Trưởng Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ

NGUYỄN VĂN KHA

Thành viên Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ/Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Thị Diệu Linh

Người phụ trách quản trị công ty/Thành viên Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ

Đỗ Huy Khải

Thành viên Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ/Kế toán trưởng

Đinh Đức Tiệp

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Trần Trọng Nghĩa

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Thu Phương

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Top connections

THS2 links SEB2 links VNY3 links HPO24.4%HHC18.3%LIG14.8%HCD14.8%TTA14.8%HDM14.8%GMH14.5%VC113.4%ASM11.2%

Computed 12/04/2026