Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 11.650
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 15.940
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- The latest cash flow is zero or negative.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 3 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Developers often carry land banks at historical cost under VAS, so book value can understate asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (book value with its property share marked up 1.5×) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.
Technical details
RE developers carry large land inventories at historical cost; cash flows depend on project delivery timing. RNAV captures hidden land value, while DCF captures earnings power. The leverage screen guards against over-leveraged developers.
RNAV proxy: the property share of BVPS (investment property, fixed assets and inventories over total assets) × 1.5 plus the rest at book, or 1.25× all of book when that share is 10% or less or unknown, cut by up to 50% as D/E rises above 2. DCF: 5-year projection on median cash flow with CAPM-derived WACC. If D/E > 3 or interest coverage < 1.5, WACC is increased by 2%. Final value = 40% RNAV + 60% DCF.
Property developers and real estate firms with significant land banks recorded at below-market historical cost.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
DCF Sensitivity
Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 1.0548th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 0.8%32nd pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The accounting signals show very strong statistical flags for aggressive accounting: a Beneish M-Score of 8.306 (100th percentile versus Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year rise of +11.85, driven by extreme component values (DSRI 10.0000, SGAI 10.0000, GMI 6.9540). At the same time, some fundamentals are mixed: the Altman Z-Score is 6.31 (in the safe zone for bankruptcy distance) while the Piotroski F-Score is weak at 3/9; earnings-quality metrics are very poor (overall 2.4/100) especially cash conversion and receivables quality (both 0.0/100).
- Beneish M-Score 8.306 (100th percentile vs Vietnam peers; YoY change +11.85) — the M-Score is a composite designed to signal likely earnings manipulation; the peer percentile and the large positive year-over-year change indicate accounting has become materially more aggressive relative to Vietnamese companies.
- DSRI (Days Sales Receivable Index) = 10.0000 — this measures abnormal growth in receivables relative to sales; a value this high suggests receivables (or revenue recognition patterns) have expanded much faster than sales.
- SGAI (Sales, General & Admin Index) = 10.0000 — this measures unusual increases in SG&A relative to sales; an extreme value implies SG&A expense behavior that departs sharply from revenue trends.
- GMI (Gross Margin Index) = 6.9540 — this measures deterioration in gross margins; a value >1 suggests margins worsened year-over-year, and here it is very elevated.
- TATA (total accruals to total assets) = 0.3608 — this accruals measure is high and contributes to low accruals-quality (Accruals quality 5.2/100), indicating earnings rely substantially on accruals.
- Earnings-quality score 2.4/100 with Cash conversion 0.0/100 and Receivables quality 0.0/100 — these sub-scores indicate reported profits are poorly backed by operating cash and receivables appear weak or atypical.
- Piotroski F-Score = 3/9 — this low score signals weak underlying operational and profitability fundamentals in the last year.
- Altman Z-Score = 6.31 (safe zone) — this distance-to-default metric indicates financial distress is not apparent by Altman’s model.
- No accumulated losses; owner’s equity (excluding minority interest) is positive and parent net loss count = 0 years up to FY2025 — the statutory balance-sheet facts show the company is not reporting accumulated statutory losses.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 0.8% of total assets (32nd percentile) — the absolute level of non-trade receivables and prepayments is small relative to total assets compared with peers.
- Vietnam three-year cash conversion (OCF / net profit) = 1.05 (48th percentile) — while not strong, cash conversion over three years is around parity with net profit and is not among the worst for Vietnam.
Ownership is moderately concentrated: one individual holds 19.2% (Đinh Quang Chiến) with another insider at 6.0%. Institutional holders include PYN Elite (5.0%), asiavantage global (4.6%) and Deutsche Bank (4.4%). Director-deal registrations for 2025-10-30 to 2026-10-30 show 0 sale registrations and 4 purchase registrations totalling 24,300,000 shares (net registered +19.92% of shares outstanding); these are exchange-registered intentions, not executed trades, and repeated registrations can reflect the same holder re-registering.
- Compare the year-over-year change in trade receivables and the DSRI drivers in the revenue note and the receivables ageing schedule — confirm the composition of receivables and the timing of revenue recognition.
- Reconcile operating profit to cash flows in the cash-flow statement and the notes: verify the components of total accruals (TATA = 0.3608) in the working-capital and accrual schedules.
- Inspect the SG&A breakdown and related-party disclosures to explain SGAI = 10.0000 — check whether large one-off SG&A items, capitalised costs, or intra-group recharges are recorded and where they are disclosed.
- Review the note(s) on prepayments, loans receivable and other long-term receivables (the ‘receivables outside the trade cycle’ line = 0.8% of assets) and cross-check with related-party schedules and any long-term contract schedules.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.89
- P/S
- 82.17
- ROE
- 1.0%
- ROA
- 0.9%
- EPS
- 143
- BVPS
- 13.199
- Gross Margin
- 8.8%
- Net Margin
- 99.5%
- D/E
- 0.01
- Current Ratio
- 7.35
- Rev Growth
- −98.8%
- Profit Growth
- −96.6%
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Div Yield
- 8.5%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 122M
- Charter Capital
- 1,220B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Bất động sản
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Bất động sản
- Sub-industry
- Bất động sản
- Company Type
- CT