Back to Dashboard

NTL

Công ty Cổ phần Phát triển Đô thị Từ Liêm

VietnamReal EstateBất động sảnHOSECT
11.650
VND · Close 3 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+36.8%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
11.650
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
15.940

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • The latest cash flow is zero or negative.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Bất động sản→Real Estate
Classified as real estate because ICB sector “Bất động sản” maps to the real estate group.
ModelRNAV + DCF Blend
Intrinsic = 40% x RNAV proxy + 60% x DCF Value

Developers often carry land banks at historical cost under VAS, so book value can understate asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (book value with its property share marked up 1.5×) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.

Technical details
Why this model

RE developers carry large land inventories at historical cost; cash flows depend on project delivery timing. RNAV captures hidden land value, while DCF captures earnings power. The leverage screen guards against over-leveraged developers.

How it works

RNAV proxy: the property share of BVPS (investment property, fixed assets and inventories over total assets) × 1.5 plus the rest at book, or 1.25× all of book when that share is 10% or less or unknown, cut by up to 50% as D/E rises above 2. DCF: 5-year projection on median cash flow with CAPM-derived WACC. If D/E > 3 or interest coverage < 1.5, WACC is increased by 2%. Final value = 40% RNAV + 60% DCF.

Best for

Property developers and real estate firms with significant land banks recorded at below-market historical cost.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.36%
+
Betasector default
1.047
x
ERP
4.38%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
11.69%
Ke
11.69%
x
E/(D+E)
99.12%
+
Kd(1-t)
4.14%
x
D/(D+E)
0.88%
=
WACC
11.63%
+2% WACC penalty (high leverage)
2
Growth Estimate
Sector Default3.50%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
4
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→11.650
Calibrated value vs last close→+36.8%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
15.940
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Discount rate (WACC)13.63%high risk: yes
Growth rate3.50%growth method: default
Base cash flow702.8 tỷone off strip ratio: 6.22

DCF Sensitivity

Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.

WACC \ Growth0.5%2.0%3.5%5.0%6.5%
11.6%18.12018.12018.12018.12018.120
12.6%16.46217.63518.12018.12018.120
13.6%16.46216.46216.46216.46216.490
14.6%15.94015.94016.02816.46216.462
15.6%15.94015.94015.94015.94015.940
Above market priceBelow market priceCurrent estimate
Feeds valuation:Cost of capitalGrowthModel inputsFinal calculation
Line item2026202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152014201320112010
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·1,8322,1181,9631,6071,8281,7251,4761,5731,4811,0901,1451,1811,234··
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·51257747926371288143185139515588125··
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·600935300570003010.80.40.80.5··
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·14910517223627726331124513619512113674··
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·1573945282429412628722··
Net Inventories
·5675001,0101,2561,1551,1581,0151,1071,187838961957963··
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·5675001,0101,2561,1551,1581,0151,1071,187838961957963··
Other current assets
·30.613225168618670.172··
Other current assets (Bn. VND)
·00000000000065··
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·53607379498514710711728713318690··
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·0.010.010.010.010.010.010.0200021370··
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·0.010.010.010.010.010.010.02000000··
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·41485045283741323628414443··
Tangible fixed assets
·41485045283641323628414443··
Intagible fixed assets
·0.050.08000.10.20.3000000··
Investment in properties
·00000000011233··
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·001089343232312343··
Investments in associate companies
·000000000280023··
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)
·26262626262626262626262670··
Less: Provision for diminuation in value of long term investments
·−26−26−16−18−17−22−24−23−24−22−24−23−51··
Other non-current assets
·0.82320.6220.80.020.000.050.40.8··
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·0.82320.6220.80.020.000.050.40.8··
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·1,8842,1782,0351,6851,8771,8101,6231,6801,5981,3771,2781,3671,323··
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·274420573427648646555686629415385505455··
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·249409562416637635544634473368272292424··
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·0015000123168178025002··
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·44188822558431301424753128226··
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·25111111111111521564711321331··
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·14000000411300000··
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)Discount rate (WACC)
·1,6101,7581,4621,2581,2291,1641,068994969961893850850··
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·1,6101,7581,4621,2581,2291,1641,068994969961893850850··
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·1,2201,220610610610610636636636636636636636··
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·00000084848076726818··
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·390538957753724659479404374368304277286··
Minority Interest
·000000000001118··
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·1,8842,1782,0351,6851,8771,8101,6231,6801,5981,3771,2781,3671,323··
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·1,2201,220610610610610636636636636636636636··
MINORITY INTERESTSNet debt bridge
·0000000010111100··

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
2
Poor
Accrual Quality
5
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
7
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
Highest band
M 8.31 · 100th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +11.85
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
10.000
GMI
6.954
AQI
1.083
SGI
0.012
DEPI
0.878
SGAI
10.000
TATA
0.361
LVGI
0.744

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
1.0548th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
0.8%32nd pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.

The accounting signals show very strong statistical flags for aggressive accounting: a Beneish M-Score of 8.306 (100th percentile versus Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year rise of +11.85, driven by extreme component values (DSRI 10.0000, SGAI 10.0000, GMI 6.9540). At the same time, some fundamentals are mixed: the Altman Z-Score is 6.31 (in the safe zone for bankruptcy distance) while the Piotroski F-Score is weak at 3/9; earnings-quality metrics are very poor (overall 2.4/100) especially cash conversion and receivables quality (both 0.0/100).

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score 8.306 (100th percentile vs Vietnam peers; YoY change +11.85) — the M-Score is a composite designed to signal likely earnings manipulation; the peer percentile and the large positive year-over-year change indicate accounting has become materially more aggressive relative to Vietnamese companies.
  • DSRI (Days Sales Receivable Index) = 10.0000 — this measures abnormal growth in receivables relative to sales; a value this high suggests receivables (or revenue recognition patterns) have expanded much faster than sales.
  • SGAI (Sales, General & Admin Index) = 10.0000 — this measures unusual increases in SG&A relative to sales; an extreme value implies SG&A expense behavior that departs sharply from revenue trends.
  • GMI (Gross Margin Index) = 6.9540 — this measures deterioration in gross margins; a value >1 suggests margins worsened year-over-year, and here it is very elevated.
  • TATA (total accruals to total assets) = 0.3608 — this accruals measure is high and contributes to low accruals-quality (Accruals quality 5.2/100), indicating earnings rely substantially on accruals.
  • Earnings-quality score 2.4/100 with Cash conversion 0.0/100 and Receivables quality 0.0/100 — these sub-scores indicate reported profits are poorly backed by operating cash and receivables appear weak or atypical.
  • Piotroski F-Score = 3/9 — this low score signals weak underlying operational and profitability fundamentals in the last year.
Positive Signals
  • Altman Z-Score = 6.31 (safe zone) — this distance-to-default metric indicates financial distress is not apparent by Altman’s model.
  • No accumulated losses; owner’s equity (excluding minority interest) is positive and parent net loss count = 0 years up to FY2025 — the statutory balance-sheet facts show the company is not reporting accumulated statutory losses.
  • Receivables outside the trade cycle = 0.8% of total assets (32nd percentile) — the absolute level of non-trade receivables and prepayments is small relative to total assets compared with peers.
  • Vietnam three-year cash conversion (OCF / net profit) = 1.05 (48th percentile) — while not strong, cash conversion over three years is around parity with net profit and is not among the worst for Vietnam.
Ownership Risk

Ownership is moderately concentrated: one individual holds 19.2% (Đinh Quang Chiến) with another insider at 6.0%. Institutional holders include PYN Elite (5.0%), asiavantage global (4.6%) and Deutsche Bank (4.4%). Director-deal registrations for 2025-10-30 to 2026-10-30 show 0 sale registrations and 4 purchase registrations totalling 24,300,000 shares (net registered +19.92% of shares outstanding); these are exchange-registered intentions, not executed trades, and repeated registrations can reflect the same holder re-registering.

To check in the filings
  • Compare the year-over-year change in trade receivables and the DSRI drivers in the revenue note and the receivables ageing schedule — confirm the composition of receivables and the timing of revenue recognition.
  • Reconcile operating profit to cash flows in the cash-flow statement and the notes: verify the components of total accruals (TATA = 0.3608) in the working-capital and accrual schedules.
  • Inspect the SG&A breakdown and related-party disclosures to explain SGAI = 10.0000 — check whether large one-off SG&A items, capitalised costs, or intra-group recharges are recorded and where they are disclosed.
  • Review the note(s) on prepayments, loans receivable and other long-term receivables (the ‘receivables outside the trade cycle’ line = 0.8% of assets) and cross-check with related-party schedules and any long-term contract schedules.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
3/9
Weak
Z-Score
6.31
Safe Zone
Sharpe
−1.57
Negative
Composite
60
50 to 69
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✗Operating CF > 0
✗ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✗Lower Leverage
✓Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✗Margin Up
✗Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.53×Interest Burden0.55×Op. Margin3.40×Turnover0.01×Leverage1.17=ROE1.1%
Price Risk
Momentum
−31.5%
Volatility
26.8%
Max Drawdown
−41.3%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
82.59P/E
P/B
0.89
P/S
82.17
ROE
1.0%
ROA
0.9%
EPS
143
BVPS
13.199
Gross Margin
8.8%
Net Margin
99.5%
D/E
0.01
Current Ratio
7.35
Rev Growth
−98.8%
Profit Growth
−96.6%
EV/EBITDA
—
Div Yield
8.5%

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
122M
Charter Capital
1,220B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Bất động sản
Industry (ICB L3)
Bất động sản
Sub-industry
Bất động sản
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a stock research tool. Its results are calculated from public financial data with published formulas. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

By using vnvalue you accept the Terms of Service and Privacy Policy. Full disclaimer →