HHC

Consumer

Công ty Cổ phần Bánh kẹo Hải Hà

Thực phẩm và đồ uống/Sản xuất thực phẩmCT

150.800

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

72.927

Current

150.800

Gap

-51.6%

ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Thực phẩm và đồ uống→Consumer

Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Thực phẩm và đồ uống" maps to the consumer group

ModelFCF-Based DCF

Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

0.800

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

10.10%

E/(D+E)

67.45%

Kd(1-t)

6.24%

D/(D+E)

32.55%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend3.09%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Base FCF→75.52B

Projection years→10

Valuation

Base FCF

75.52B

Growth Rate

3.09%

WACC

10.00%

Terminal Growth

4.00%

DCF Value

72.927

Value Decomposition

43%

57%

Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — HHC

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Fair

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.25

Moderate

DSRI

0.927

GMI

0.977

AQI

2.376

SGI

0.906

DEPI

0.790

SGAI

0.968

TATA

-0.030

LVGI

1.019

HHC shows a Beneish M-Score of -2.2535, indicating a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is below the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality score of 63.5/100 reveals significant weaknesses, particularly in receivables and revenue recognition.

Red Flags

Earnings Quality Score of 63.5/100, with a concerning eq_receivables score of 0.0/100, indicating potential issues in revenue collection.
Low eq_revenue score of 17.2/100 suggests that revenue recognition practices may not be reliable.

Positive Signals

Beneish M-Score of -2.2535 indicates a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation.
High eq_cash_conv score of 100.0/100 reflects strong cash conversion capabilities.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is concentrated, with the top two shareholders holding 48% of shares, which may lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor cash flow and revenue recognition practices, while considering the strong cash conversion metrics as a positive signal. It may be prudent to approach HHC with caution, given the elevated risks associated with earnings quality.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

6/9

Neutral

Z-Score

5.92

Safe Zone

Sharpe

0.42

Positive

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

+31.2%

Volatility

105.7%

Max Drawdown

-37.9%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

40.02P/E

P/B2.96

P/S2.82

ROE7.5%

ROA5.1%

EPS3003.29

BVPS40591.15

Gross Margin22.5%

Net Margin7.1%

D/E0.48

Current Ratio1.87

Rev Growth-6.1%

Profit Growth11.5%

EV/EBITDA41.96

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

16.4M

Charter Capital

164.3B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Thực phẩm và đồ uống

Industry (ICB L3)

Sản xuất thực phẩm

Sub-industry

Thực phẩm

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for HHC — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Lưu Văn Vũ

Indiv

24.0%

3.9 trieu

Trương Thị Bửu

Indiv

24.0%

3.9 trieu

Công ty TNHH MTV Quản Lý Quỹ Ngân Hàng Thương Mại Cổ phần Công Thương Việt Nam

Inst

18.3%

3.0 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Chứng khoán Ngân hàng Phát triển nhà Đồng bằng Sông Cửu Long

Inst

6.6%

542.700

Công ty Tài chính Tổng hợp Cổ phần Điện Lực

Inst

5.0%

820.000

Nguyễn Thị Lan

Indiv

4.5%

735.400

Công ty Cổ phần Chứng khoán Bảo Việt

Inst

3.3%

271.800

Công tyTNHH XNK Trang thiết bị y tế BMS

Inst

1.6%

132.600

Công ty Cổ phần Chứng khoán Nhất Việt

Inst

1.0%

159.100

Board & Management

Lê Mạnh Linh

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Mạnh Tuấn

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Trần Thị Thu Hà

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin

Nghiêm Khắc Đạt

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Trần Thu Hà

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin

Bùi Thị Thanh Hương

Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Vũ Thị Thúy

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Bùi Tuấn Anh

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Đỗ Thị Kim Xuân

Kế toán trưởng

Hoàng Hùng

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Top connections

VNY24.6%GMH18.3%SHE18.3%HMH18.3%GEX18.3%VSC18.3%PET18.3%NTL18.3%MBB18.3%FPT18.3%VNM18.3%CAT10.0%

Computed 12/04/2026