VSE

Construction

Công ty Cổ phần Dịch vụ Đường cao tốc Việt Nam

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Vận tảiCT

8.200

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

6.140

Current

8.200

Gap

-25.1%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

72.93%

Kd(1-t)

6.40%

D/(D+E)

27.07%

WACC

10.63%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend3.00%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

8.494

50%DCF Value

3.786

Blended Intrinsic

6.140

Value Decomposition

37%

63%

Explicit period (37%)Terminal value (63%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — VSE

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2024

Weak

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2024

-2.42

Moderate

DSRI

0.947

GMI

0.787

AQI

0.740

SGI

1.075

DEPI

1.086

SGAI

0.683

TATA

0.042

LVGI

0.990

VSE exhibits several concerning indicators of potential earnings manipulation, as highlighted by its Beneish M-Score of -2.4159, which is below the manipulation threshold of -1.78. Additionally, the low earnings quality score of 36.2 suggests significant issues with cash conversion and revenue recognition.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of -2.4159 indicates potential earnings manipulation, significantly below the threshold of -1.78.
Earnings quality score of 36.2/100, with cash conversion at 0.0/100, raises concerns about the reliability of reported earnings.

Positive Signals

DSRI at 0.9466 suggests that inventory levels are in line with sales, which is a positive indicator.
Ownership structure shows significant institutional backing, with top shareholders holding a combined 99.2%, indicating potential stability.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated among state and institutional investors, which may reduce volatility but could also lead to governance risks and lack of transparency in decision-making.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and closely monitor VSE's financial disclosures and operational performance, particularly focusing on cash flow metrics and revenue recognition practices before making investment decisions.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

5/9

Neutral

Z-Score

2.38

Grey Zone

Sharpe

-0.56

Negative

Composite

Poor

Price Risk

Momentum

-15.3%

Volatility

48.1%

Max Drawdown

-29.1%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2024

47.59P/E

P/B0.93

P/S1.27

ROE2.0%

ROA1.4%

EPS195.87

BVPS10024.82

Gross Margin13.1%

Net Margin2.7%

D/E0.37

Current Ratio3.37

Rev Growth7.5%

Profit Growth168.1%

EV/EBITDA52.85

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

8.9M

Charter Capital

89.4B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp

Industry (ICB L3)

Vận tải

Sub-industry

Kho bãi, hậu cần và bảo dưỡng

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for VSE — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Tổng Công ty Đầu tư Phát triển Đường cao tốc Việt Nam - Công ty TNHH MTV

State

22.4%

2.0 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Đầu Tư Thùy Dương

Inst

22.4%

2.0 trieu

Tập đoàn Xăng dầu Việt Nam

Inst

22.4%

2.0 trieu

Công ty Cổ Phần Đầu Tư Và Phát Triển Indel

Inst

20.4%

1.8 trieu

Công ty CP Blue Point

Inst

11.2%

1.0 trieu

Trần Văn Thế

Indiv

10.9%

975.700

Nguyễn Văn Nhi

Indiv

0.4%

37.700

Phạm Thái Long

Indiv

0.1%

12.000

Bùi Thái Hòa

Indiv

0.1%

10.000

Board & Management

Phạm Thái Long0.1%

Phó Giám đốc

Bùi Thái Hòa0.1%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Tiên Phong

Phó Giám đốc

Trần Thị Thu Hương

Phó Giám đốc

TRƯƠNG HÙNG SƠN

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Lê Nguyễn Thùy Giang

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Phạm Thị Hiển

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Quang Vinh

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Xuân Hoàng

Kế toán trưởng

Nguyễn Quang Bảo

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Hải Anh

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Trọng Đồng

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Top connections

PLC79.1%VPA58.0%PSC52.7%PGC52.4%IDP51.8%PJC51.1%PTX51.0%PGI40.9%PGB40.6%BMF22.4%VTD10.9%KHG9.9%

Computed 12/04/2026