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Consumer sector

OPC

Consumer
Công ty Cổ phần Dược Phẩm OPC
Y tế/Dược phẩmCT
22.600
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
15.835
Current
22.600
Gap
-29.9%
ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CTY tếConsumer
Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Y tế" maps to the consumer group
ModelFCF-Based DCF
Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.800
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
10.10%
Ke
10.10%
x
E/(D+E)
71.12%
+
Kd(1-t)
6.33%
x
D/(D+E)
28.88%
=
WACC
10.00%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend6.03%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
Base FCF43.75B
Projection years10
4
Valuation
Base FCF
43.75B
Growth Rate
6.03%
WACC
10.00%
Terminal Growth
4.00%
DCF Value
15.835
Value Decomposition
43%
57%
Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — OPC

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

67
Fair
Accrual Quality
85
Cash Conversion
44
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
100
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.16
Moderate
DSRI
1.012
GMI
1.004
AQI
1.011
SGI
1.159
DEPI
0.972
SGAI
1.069
TATA
0.039
LVGI
1.023

The Beneish M-Score of -2.1626 indicates a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is below the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality metrics reveal significant concerns, particularly with a cash conversion score of only 43.7/100, suggesting potential issues with cash flow relative to reported earnings.

Red Flags
  • Earnings Quality Score of 67.1/100 indicates moderate concerns, especially with a cash conversion score of 43.7/100, which suggests potential discrepancies between reported earnings and actual cash flows.
  • SGI of 1.1594 indicates a growth rate that may not be sustainable, raising concerns about the company's ability to maintain its revenue growth.
Positive Signals
  • The receivables score of 100.0/100 indicates excellent management of accounts receivable, suggesting that the company is efficient in collecting payments.
  • The low DEPI of 0.9719 suggests that the company is not overly aggressive in its depreciation policies, which is a positive sign for asset valuation.
Ownership Risk

The top shareholders include significant institutional investors, which can provide stability; however, the largest individual shareholder holds 14.1%, indicating potential concentration risk in decision-making.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor cash flow performance and revenue sustainability, as the elevated SGI and low cash conversion could signal future challenges. A deeper analysis of operational efficiency and potential growth strategies is recommended before making investment decisions.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
4/9
Neutral
Z-Score
4.28
Safe Zone
Sharpe
-0.37
Negative
Composite
47
Weak
Price Risk
Momentum
-1.1%
Volatility
30.8%
Max Drawdown
-13.5%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
12.29P/E
P/B1.57
P/S1.27
ROE13.5%
ROA8.9%
EPS1809.68
BVPS14213.53
Gross Margin41.4%
Net Margin10.3%
D/E0.41
Current Ratio2.72
Rev Growth16.0%
Profit Growth8.3%
EV/EBITDA7.81
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
64.1M
Charter Capital
640.5B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Y tế
Industry (ICB L3)
Dược phẩm
Sub-industry
Dược phẩm
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for OPC — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Trịnh Xuân Vương
Indiv
14.1%
9.1 trieu
Tổng Công ty Dược Việt Nam
Inst
13.4%
8.6 trieu
Công ty Cổ phần Pacific Partners
Inst
12.9%
8.2 trieu
Route One Investment Company
Inst
3.8%
766.140
Quỹ tầm nhìn SSI
Inst
2.5%
502.600
Pure Heart Value Investment Fund
Inst
2.2%
442.500
Quỹ Đầu tư Chứng khoán Y tế Bản Việt
Inst
1.9%
391.651
Đỗ Thụy Như Hà
Indiv
1.7%
1.1 trieu
Ngô Tân Long
Indiv
1.0%
273.252
Nguyễn Thị Minh Tâm
Indiv
0.7%
140.282
Lê Vũ Thuật
Indiv
0.7%
181.915
Nguyễn Văn Quang
Indiv
0.5%
92.290
Công ty Cổ phần Chứng khoán SSI
Inst
0.4%
111.401
Nguyễn Thị Ngọc Lan
Indiv
0.3%
80.165
Lê Thị Năm
Indiv
0.3%
78.750
Nguyễn Đăng Thoại
Indiv
0.2%
50.465
Lê Thị Chiến
Indiv
0.2%
106.974
nguyen-van-tan
Indiv
0.1%
36.093
Hà Đức Cường
Indiv
0.1%
89.998
nguyen-thi-hong
Indiv
0.1%
65.095
Board & Management
Trịnh Xuân Vương14.1%
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Ngô Tân Long1.0%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Lê Vũ Thuật0.7%
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Hà Đức Cường0.1%
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Thị Hồng0.1%
Phụ trách Công bố thông tin
Trịnh Việt Tuấn
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Thế Đề
Kế toán trưởng
Nguyễn Thị Mỹ Hạnh
Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Vòng Nhịt Mùi
Người phụ trách quản trị công ty
Lê Thị Thúy Anh
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Lê Minh Điểm
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Lê Văn Sơn
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Phạm Thị Xuân Hương
Tổng Giám đốc
Phan Công Cường
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Văn Khái
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Trịnh Việt Tuấn
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Ngọc Anh
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Chí Linh
Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Computed 12/04/2026
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