MKP

Consumer

Công ty Cổ phần Hóa - Dược phẩm Mekophar

Y tế/Dược phẩmCT

32.000

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Very Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

30.104

Current

32.000

Gap

-5.9%

ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Y tế→Consumer

Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Y tế" maps to the consumer group

ModelFCF-Based DCF

Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

0.800

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

10.10%

E/(D+E)

78.74%

Kd(1-t)

5.05%

D/(D+E)

21.26%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend4.00%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Base FCF→31.26B

Projection years→10

Valuation

Base FCF

31.26B

Growth Rate

4.00%

WACC

10.00%

Terminal Growth

4.00%

DCF Value

30.104

Value Decomposition

43%

57%

Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — MKP

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Weak

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-1.20

High Risk

DSRI

1.428

GMI

0.894

AQI

0.916

SGI

1.076

DEPI

1.710

SGAI

0.931

TATA

0.174

LVGI

1.006

The Beneish M-Score of -1.2004 indicates that MKP is not likely to be manipulating earnings, as it is above the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality score of 31.7/100, particularly low cash conversion (0.0/100), raises concerns about the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags

Earnings Quality Score of 31.7/100 indicates significant issues with earnings sustainability.
Cash conversion rate at 0.0/100 suggests that earnings are not translating into cash flow, which is a major concern.
High DSRI of 1.4281 indicates potential issues with inventory management, which could lead to overstatement of revenues.

Positive Signals

Receivables quality score at 100.0/100 suggests strong management of receivables, indicating potential reliability in revenue collection.
Beneish M-Score of -1.2004 is above the manipulation threshold, suggesting a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is concentrated, with the top five shareholders holding over 80% of the shares, which may lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor cash flow performance and earnings quality metrics before making investment decisions. Consider engaging with management regarding strategies to improve cash conversion and overall financial transparency.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

5/9

Neutral

Z-Score

2.39

Grey Zone

Sharpe

-0.15

Negative

Composite

Poor

Price Risk

Momentum

-10.0%

Volatility

61.7%

Max Drawdown

-27.0%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

54.77P/E

P/B0.60

P/S0.77

ROE1.1%

ROA0.9%

EPS544.08

BVPS50069.96

Gross Margin30.2%

Net Margin1.4%

D/E0.27

Current Ratio5.08

Rev Growth7.6%

Profit Growth-65.9%

EV/EBITDA8.01

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

25.5M

Charter Capital

255.5B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Y tế

Industry (ICB L3)

Dược phẩm

Sub-industry

Dược phẩm

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for MKP — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Huỳnh Thị Lan

Indiv

24.4%

6.2 trieu

Tổng Công ty Dược Việt Nam

Inst

18.2%

4.7 trieu

Công ty TNHH MTV BĐS ARECO

Inst

17.8%

1.8 trieu

Công ty CP Bệnh Viện Đa Khoa Tư Nhân An Sinh

Inst

10.4%

2.0 trieu

Quỹ đầu tư chứng khoán Con Hổ Việt Nam

Indiv

9.9%

1.0 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Ngoại thương và Phát triển Đầu tư Thành phố Hồ Chí Minh

Inst

9.3%

936.391

Phan Thị Lan Hương

Indiv

7.1%

1.8 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Quản lý quỹ đầu tư MB

Inst

4.9%

1.2 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Bao Bì Dược

Inst

3.3%

329.500

Đặng Thị Kim Lan

Indiv

3.0%

767.267

Nguyễn Thùy Vân

Indiv

2.2%

215.587

Lê Anh Phương

Indiv

1.6%

406.553

Công ty Cổ phần Dược phẩm Trung ương VIDIPHA

Inst

1.4%

144.000

Võ Thị Thanh Vân

Indiv

1.4%

134.720

Lê Thị Thúy Hằng

Indiv

1.2%

230.040

Lê Quang Đán

Indiv

1.0%

98.350

Công ty Cổ phần Dược phẩm Mekong

Inst

1.0%

100.000

Nguyễn Thị Quỳnh Anh

Indiv

0.8%

213.134

Trần Thị Hà Thanh

Indiv

0.4%

39.780

Trần Trung Ngôn

Indiv

0.3%

83.930

Lê Quang Minh

Indiv

0.3%

79.281

Trần Thị Yến

Indiv

0.2%

19.830

Công ty Cổ phần Dược Phẩm OPC

Inst

0.2%

15.345

Board & Management

Huỳnh Thị Lan24.4%

Tổng Giám đốc/Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Phan Thị Lan Hương7.1%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Đặng Thị Kim Lan3.0%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Lê Anh Phương1.6%

Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Lê Thị Thúy Hằng1.2%

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin

Nguyễn Thị Quỳnh Anh0.8%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Trần Trung Ngôn0.3%

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Bá Khoa

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Viết Luận

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Đinh Xuân Hấn

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Satoshi Kawamura

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Phan Anh Tài

Kế toán trưởng

Top connections

CDP66.3%DP165.4%TW365.0%UPH2 links DAN26.5%DP322.1%IMP22.0%VDP18.2%OPC18.2%MED18.2%VMD18.2%MTP18.2%

Computed 12/04/2026