DP1

Consumer

Công ty Cổ phần Dược phẩm Trung ương CPC1

Y tế/Dược phẩmCT

32.000

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

86.338

Current

32.000

Gap

+169.8%

ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Y tế→Consumer

Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Y tế" maps to the consumer group

ModelFCF-Based DCF

Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

0.800

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

10.10%

E/(D+E)

30.98%

Kd(1-t)

6.34%

D/(D+E)

69.02%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend9.95%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Base FCF→113.08B

Projection years→10

Valuation

Base FCF

113.08B

Growth Rate

9.95%

WACC

10.00%

Terminal Growth

4.00%

DCF Value

86.338

Value Decomposition

41%

59%

Explicit period (41%)Terminal value (59%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — DP1

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Weak

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

100

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-1.67

Elevated

DSRI

1.154

GMI

1.135

AQI

0.730

SGI

1.054

DEPI

1.182

SGAI

0.969

TATA

0.141

LVGI

1.091

DP1 exhibits several concerning indicators of potential earnings manipulation, particularly with a Beneish M-Score of -1.6705, which is close to the threshold for manipulation. The earnings quality score of 47.2/100, combined with a cash conversion score of 0.0/100, raises significant red flags regarding the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of -1.6705 is above the threshold of -1.78, indicating potential earnings manipulation.
Earnings Quality Score of 47.2/100, particularly low cash conversion score of 0.0/100, suggests poor quality of earnings.
High DSRI of 1.1545 and DEPI of 1.1817 indicate potential issues with revenue recognition and inventory management.

Positive Signals

Receivables and margin metrics at 100.0/100 indicate strong performance in collections and profitability.
SGAI of 0.9688 suggests effective cost management relative to sales growth.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with Tổng Công ty Dược Việt Nam holding 65.4%, which may lead to governance risks and reduced accountability for minority shareholders.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and conduct further due diligence on DP1, particularly focusing on cash flow statements and revenue recognition practices. Consider monitoring future earnings reports closely for signs of improvement in cash conversion and overall earnings quality.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

1/9

Weak

Z-Score

2.18

Grey Zone

Sharpe

-0.71

Negative

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

-7.2%

Volatility

27.7%

Max Drawdown

-22.3%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

5.84P/E

P/B1.12

P/S0.31

ROE20.5%

ROA6.9%

EPS5390.26

BVPS28107.71

Gross Margin13.5%

Net Margin5.3%

D/E2.23

Current Ratio1.33

Rev Growth5.4%

Profit Growth-0.6%

EV/EBITDA10.65

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

21.0M

Charter Capital

209.8B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Y tế

Industry (ICB L3)

Dược phẩm

Sub-industry

Dược phẩm

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for DP1 — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Tổng Công ty Dược Việt Nam

Inst

65.4%

13.7 trieu

Lê Nam Thắng

Indiv

8.1%

1.7 trieu

Lê Thị Kim Ánh

Indiv

7.2%

1.5 trieu

nguyen-doan-liem

Indiv

5.8%

1.2 trieu

nguyen-thanh-lam

Indiv

3.7%

770.400

Board & Management

Nguyễn Doãn Liêm5.8%

Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Lường Thị Kim Thanh

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Thị Hòa

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Đặng Thị Dư

Kế toán trưởng

Bùi Thị Thanh Hải

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Thùy Dung

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Hồng Nhung

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Hà Lan Anh

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Huy Thanh

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Hàn Thị Khánh Vinh

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Top connections

CDP66.3%TW365.4%UPH65.4%DAN65.4%DP365.4%IMP65.4%MKP65.4%VDP65.4%OPC65.4%MED65.4%VMD65.4%MTP65.4%

Computed 12/04/2026