Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 29.400
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 36.100
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
- The model uses profit in place of cash flow, which was not available.
- The latest cash flow is zero or negative.
Also note
- Historical growth has declined.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 3 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.
Technical details
Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).
Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.
Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
DCF Sensitivity
Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −0.4517th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 0.5%23rd pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company’s Beneish M-Score is -1.6724 (75th percentile among Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +0.66, indicating accounting aggressiveness is above most local peers and has recently moved. Supportive signals are mixed: TATA is low at 0.1325 (small total accruals relative to assets) but cash-based metrics are weak — the three-year cash conversion is -0.45 (17th percentile) and the Earnings Quality Score is 26.2/100, while Altman Z-Score (2.17) sits in the grey zone and Piotroski F-Score is low at 2/9.
- Beneish M-Score = -1.6724 (75th Vietnam peer percentile; +0.66 YoY). The M-Score is above many Vietnamese peers and the increase shows accounting measures became more aggressive year-over-year.
- DSRI = 1.1545. Days-sales-in-receivables index above 1 suggests receivables are growing faster than sales, a signal that revenue recognition or collection may be weakening.
- GMI = 1.1350. Gross margin index above 1 indicates gross margins deteriorated year-over-year, which can pressure management to manage earnings.
- LVGI = 1.0964. Leverage index above 1 shows leverage increased year-over-year, which can amplify earnings-management incentives.
- Cash-conversion (operating cash flow / net profit, 3-year) = -0.45 (17th percentile among Vietnamese non-financials). Profits have not converted into cash; this is a significant working-capital / cash quality concern.
- Earnings Quality Score = 26.2/100 with Revenue quality = 0.0/100 and Cash conversion = 0.0/100. These sub-scores indicate very low quality of reported revenue and poor cash backing of earnings.
- Piotroski F-Score = 2/9. Weak fundamental score (few quality signals from profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency tests).
- TATA = 0.1325. Total accruals to assets are relatively low, which reduces one common mechanism of earnings manipulation.
- AQI = 0.8700. Asset quality index below 1 suggests no large increase in non-current asset reclassifications or write-ups relative to sales in the period measured.
- SGAI = 0.9688. Selling, general & administrative expenses scaled to sales are slightly lower year-over-year, not showing an immediate expense-classification inflation.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 0.5% of total assets (23rd percentile). The absolute amount of non-trade receivables/prepayments/long-term receivables is small relative to peers.
The share register is concentrated: Tổng Công ty Dược Việt Nam (a large institutional/state-related owner) holds 65.4%, with four individuals holding the next largest stakes (8.1%, 7.2%, 5.8%, 3.7%). No director-deal registrations were provided in the input. The dominant institutional shareholder implies potential group or state influence on financial reporting and related-party transactions.
- Compare the break-down of 'Receivables and prepayments' in the FY2025 notes to the 0.5% of total assets figure to identify amounts classified as prepayments, loans to related parties or other long-term receivables.
- Reconcile operating cash flow to reported net profit in the consolidated cash flow statement and the profit-and-loss note to understand drivers of the three-year cash conversion ratio = -0.45.
- Inspect the related-party transactions note for sales, purchases, loans and balances with Tổng Công ty Dược Việt Nam and other large shareholders to see if sizeable intra-group items could explain receivables or cash patterns.
- Review the auditor’s report and any explanatory notes about going concern, accounting estimates, and revenue recognition policies to contextualise the Revenue quality = 0.0/100 and DSRI = 1.1545.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 1.04
- P/S
- 0.29
- ROE
- 20.5%
- ROA
- 6.8%
- EPS
- 5.390
- BVPS
- 28.108
- Gross Margin
- 13.5%
- Net Margin
- 5.3%
- D/E
- 1.04
- Current Ratio
- 1.32
- Rev Growth
- +5.4%
- Profit Growth
- −0.6%
- EV/EBITDA
- 9.46
- Div Yield
- 4.1%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 21.0M
- Charter Capital
- 210B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Y tế
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Dược phẩm
- Sub-industry
- Dược phẩm
- Company Type
- CT