UPH

Công ty Cổ phần Dược phẩm TW25

VietnamConsumerY tếDược phẩmUPCOMCT

8.100

VND · Last close

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate

Comparison requires review

+11.9%Calibrated value vs last close

Last close (VND): 8.100
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND): 9.061

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

1
Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
2
Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
3
Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.

Also note

A release of working capital contributes to cash flow.
Historical growth has declined.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 22 Nov 2026

Model reliability: Low; Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks; High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers: Not assessed; A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.

Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Published filingsValued 30 Oct 2026Anchored to close on 23 Oct 2026Recalculated when the displayed close changes.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Y tế→Consumer

Classified as consumer because ICB sector “Y tế” maps to the consumer group.

ModelFCF-Based DCF

Intrinsic = 70% x DCF Value + 30% x (Fair P/E x EPS)

A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.

Technical details

Why this model

Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).

How it works

Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.

Best for

Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.36%

Betasector default

0.910

ERP

4.38%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

11.10%

E/(D+E)

100.00%

Kd(1-t)

0.00%

D/(D+E)

0.00%

WACC

11.10%

Growth Estimate

historical blend4.00%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Base FCF→13.02B

Projection years→10

Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→8.100

Calibrated value vs last close→+11.9%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)

9.061

What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements

Discount rate (WACC)11.10%

Growth rate4.00%growth method: historical blend

Base cash flow13.0 tỷone off strip ratio: 0

DCF Sensitivity

Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.

WACC \ Growth	1.0%	2.5%	4.0%	5.5%	7.0%
9.1%	9.458	9.458	9.458	9.458	9.809
10.1%	9.458	9.458	9.458	9.458	9.458
11.1%	9.289	9.458	9.458	9.458	9.458
12.1%	9.080	9.080	9.080	9.080	9.289
13.1%	9.080	9.080	9.080	9.080	9.080

Above market priceBelow market priceCurrent estimate

UPH among Consumer

Every stock in the sector, UPH marked: calibrated gap vs close across, market value up, model reliability into the board

Each bead is one valued stock in the sector; the amber bead with its stem is UPH. Drag to turn; open another stock from its bead.

Feeds valuation:Cost of capitalGrowthModel inputsFinal calculation

Line item	2026	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	296	293	276	275	274	289	290	329	175	145	134	90	96
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge	·	49	28	29	15	18	8	16	34	76	60	51	5	11
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge	·	32	38	22	19	18	30	35	3	0	17	0	0	0
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)	·	23	27	26	25	25	19	19	60	63	36	37	33	36
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)	·	1	1	5	2	3	3	1	1	0.7	1	0.9	2	0.9
Net Inventories	·	191	199	198	213	208	226	215	227	32	32	45	50	47
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)	·	195	202	200	215	209	227	216	228	34	32	47	51	47
Other current assets	·	0.01	0.5	1	3	3	5	5	5	4	0.6	0.9	2	2
Other current assets (Bn. VND)	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.4	0.3
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	92	94	96	99	99	103	101	82	220	46	48	52	58
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)	·	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	0.1	0.2	0.2	0	0
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)	·	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	0.1	0.2	0.2	0	0
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)	·	18	20	23	26	27	31	29	29	39	42	44	48	49
Tangible fixed assets	·	18	20	23	26	27	31	29	29	39	42	44	48	49
Intagible fixed assets	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.01	0.04	0.07	0	0.01	0.05
Investment in properties	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	161	0	0	0	0
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	4	4	4	8
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	4	4	4	8
Other non-current assets	·	47	49	50	52	54	56	58	21	0.03	0.08	0.3	0.7	0.9
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)	·	47	49	50	52	54	56	58	21	0.03	0.08	0.3	0.7	0.9
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	388	387	372	375	373	392	392	411	395	192	183	143	154
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)	·	230	232	220	225	225	237	230	243	231	30	88	71	84
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)	·	224	231	219	224	224	236	229	242	230	29	86	63	74
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1	·	0	0	0	0	0	8	0	5	158	0	32	42	27
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)	·	178	183	210	209	211	210	209	209	52	0.4	0	0.2	0.00
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)	·	6	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	9	9
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.6
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)Discount rate (WACC)	·	157	155	152	150	148	155	162	168	164	161	95	71	70
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)	·	157	155	152	150	148	155	162	168	164	161	95	71	70
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)	·	133	133	133	133	133	133	133	133	133	133	78	56	56
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)	·	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	9	8	8	8	5	5
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)	·	−6	−8	−11	−13	−15	−8	−1	9	5	2	2	6	5
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)	·	388	387	372	375	373	392	392	411	395	192	183	143	154
Common shares (Bn. VND)	·	133	133	133	133	133	133	133	133	133	133	78	56	56

◆vnvalue Research Note

Full equity analysis · PDF · Updated 30 Oct 2026

Dated original report: includes the model’s unadjusted figures; the website shows calibrated values.

Download

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Good

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

100

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

Remainder

M −2.64 · 31st pctile vs VN companies

YoY ▼ −0.08

Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement

Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI

0.993

GMI

1.020

AQI

0.998

SGI

0.865

DEPI

1.022

SGAI

0.977

TATA

−0.013

LVGI

0.970

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit: 4.7491st pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets: 1.3%41st pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero: 0.04×
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent: 0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest: Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

5/9

Neutral

Z-Score

0.87

Distress Zone

Sharpe

−0.17

Negative

Composite

Below 30

Piotroski F-Score Breakdown

✓Net Income > 0

✓Operating CF > 0

✗ROA Rising

✓OCF > Net Income

✗Lower Leverage

✓Better Liquidity

✓No Dilution

✗Margin Up

✗Turnover Up

DuPont Decomposition

Tax Burden0.77×Interest Burden1.04×Op. Margin0.02×Turnover0.29×Leverage2.46=ROE1.4%

Price Risk

Momentum

−41.4%

Volatility

194.5%

Max Drawdown

−73.6%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

47.54P/E

P/B: 0.68
P/S: 0.95
ROE: 1.4%
ROA: 0.6%
EPS: 170
BVPS: 11.841
Gross Margin: 12.8%
Net Margin: 2.0%
D/E: 0.00
Current Ratio: 1.32
Rev Growth: −13.2%
Profit Growth: −26.2%
EV/EBITDA: 9.54
Div Yield: —

Company Overview

Shares outstanding: 13.3M
Charter Capital: 133B VND
Sector (ICB L2): Y tế
Industry (ICB L3): Dược phẩm
Sub-industry: Dược phẩm
Company Type: CT

Ownership network

Common ownership links for UPH. Hover for detail, select a link to open it.

Shareholders

Công ty Cổ phần Dược Phẩm OPC

OPC

58.1%

7.7M

2026-06-30

Tổng Công ty Dược Việt Nam

Inst

28.4%

3.8M

2026-06-30

Lê Thị Ánh Nguyệt

Indiv

0.1%

13,436

2026-06-30

Board & Management

Lê Thị Ánh Nguyệt0.1%

Member of Supervisors Board

Hà Đức Cường

Member of Management Board

Ngô Tân Long

Deputy General Director/Chief Accountant

Top connections

CDP66.3%DP165.4%TW365.0%DAN28.4%DP328.4%IMP28.4%MKP28.4%VDP28.4%OPC28.4%MED28.4%VMD28.4%MTP28.4%

Listed group

OPCCông ty Cổ phần Dược Phẩm OPC
Parent: holds over 50%
58.1%
2026-06-30

Read from the shareholder lists: control above 50% of the shares (VAS 25), significant influence at 20% or more (VAS 07). Each date is that of the disclosure.

Computed 30/10/2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Earnings-capitalised value

How it is calculated

Keep in mind

Why it needs review

Also note

Valuation Breakdown

DCF Sensitivity

UPH among Consumer

Financial Statements

Earnings Quality

Financial Forensics

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Quantitative Scores

Key Ratios

Company Overview

Ownership network

Listed group

Ownership network

Listed group

UPH among Consumer