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Consumer sector

DAN

Consumer
Công ty Cổ phần Dược Danapha
Y tế/Dược phẩmCT
32.400
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
39.411
Current
32.400
Gap
+21.6%
ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CTY tếConsumer
Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Y tế" maps to the consumer group
ModelFCF-Based DCF
Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.800
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
10.10%
Ke
10.10%
x
E/(D+E)
47.93%
+
Kd(1-t)
6.26%
x
D/(D+E)
52.07%
=
WACC
10.00%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend6.99%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
Base FCF76.56B
Projection years10
4
Valuation
Base FCF
76.56B
Growth Rate
6.99%
WACC
10.00%
Terminal Growth
4.00%
DCF Value
39.411
Value Decomposition
43%
57%
Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — DAN

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

71
Good
Accrual Quality
94
Cash Conversion
49
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
100
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.30
Moderate
DSRI
1.019
GMI
0.944
AQI
1.136
SGI
1.146
DEPI
0.971
SGAI
1.012
TATA
0.015
LVGI
1.173

The Beneish M-Score of -2.2981 indicates that DAN is not likely to be manipulating earnings, as it is below the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality metrics reveal significant concerns, particularly with a cash conversion score of only 48.8, which suggests potential issues in converting earnings into cash.

Red Flags
  • Cash conversion score of 48.8 indicates potential liquidity issues.
  • Revenue quality score of 0.0 suggests that reported revenues may not be reliable.
Positive Signals
  • High accrual score of 94.0 indicates strong earnings quality in terms of accruals.
  • Strong receivables quality score of 100.0 suggests effective management of receivables.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with 71.0% held by Công ty TNHH Danhson VN and 26.5% by Tổng Công ty Dược Việt Nam, which may limit minority shareholder influence and raise concerns about governance.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor cash flow performance and revenue recognition practices. Given the elevated risk level, a cautious approach is advised, possibly waiting for improved earnings quality metrics before making significant investments.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
3/9
Weak
Z-Score
0.93
Distress Zone
Sharpe
0.18
Positive
Composite
68
Fair
Price Risk
Momentum
+20.2%
Volatility
128.9%
Max Drawdown
-26.2%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
8.06P/E
P/B0.80
P/S1.05
ROE10.4%
ROA4.5%
EPS4018.99
BVPS40551.96
Gross Margin55.0%
Net Margin13.0%
D/E1.57
Current Ratio1.27
Rev Growth13.7%
Profit Growth20.2%
EV/EBITDA8.29
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
20.9M
Charter Capital
209.4B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Y tế
Industry (ICB L3)
Dược phẩm
Sub-industry
Dược phẩm
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for DAN — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Công ty TNHH Danhson VN
Inst
71.0%
14.9 trieu
Tổng Công ty Dược Việt Nam
Inst
26.5%
5.5 trieu
Đỗ Thị Thủy
Indiv
4.3%
897.407
Phạm Khắc Hà
Indiv
0.4%
79.000
Mai Đăng Đẩu
Indiv
0.3%
55.000
Dương Chí Toản
Indiv
0.1%
25.000
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a methodology engine — not an advisor. Every number is the deterministic output of a published formula applied to public financial data. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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