PDV

Construction

Công ty Cổ phần Vận tải và Tiếp vận Phương Đông Việt

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Vận tảiCT

9.250

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Medium

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

11.004

Current

9.250

Gap

+19.0%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

46.16%

Kd(1-t)

6.42%

D/(D+E)

53.84%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend4.23%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

1.078

50%DCF Value

20.931

Blended Intrinsic

11.004

Value Decomposition

35%

65%

Explicit period (35%)Terminal value (65%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — PDV

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Fair

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.43

Moderate

DSRI

0.990

GMI

1.837

AQI

0.956

SGI

1.422

DEPI

0.684

SGAI

0.620

TATA

-0.166

LVGI

0.992

PDV exhibits a concerning Beneish M-Score of -2.4348, indicating potential earnings manipulation. While the earnings quality score is relatively strong at 63.1, specific metrics such as the accrual score suggest weaknesses in earnings sustainability.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of -2.4348, significantly below the manipulation threshold of -1.78, indicating a high likelihood of earnings manipulation.
Earnings quality accrual score of 42.3/100, suggesting potential issues with the quality of earnings reported.

Positive Signals

Cash conversion score of 100.0/100 indicates strong cash flow generation relative to earnings.
Top institutional ownership at 74.7% (51.9% + 22.8%) suggests a level of stability and confidence from larger investors.

Ownership Risk

The high concentration of ownership among a few institutions (74.7%) may lead to governance risks, as decisions may favor the interests of these shareholders over minority investors.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor PDV's financial disclosures for signs of earnings manipulation and consider a cautious approach due to the elevated risk level. Engaging with management regarding earnings quality metrics could provide further clarity.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

5/9

Neutral

Z-Score

1.56

Distress Zone

Sharpe

-1.18

Negative

Composite

Weak

Price Risk

Momentum

-22.2%

Volatility

18.2%

Max Drawdown

-26.7%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

8.54P/E

P/B0.73

P/S0.39

ROE8.8%

ROA4.1%

EPS1129.27

BVPS13126.31

Gross Margin8.7%

Net Margin4.6%

D/E1.15

Current Ratio1.50

Rev Growth42.2%

Profit Growth-60.1%

EV/EBITDA5.03

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

79.3M

Charter Capital

793.1B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp

Industry (ICB L3)

Vận tải

Sub-industry

Vận tải Thủy

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for PDV — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Tổng Công ty Cổ phần Vận tải Dầu khí

Inst

51.9%

41.1 trieu

Công ty TNHH Tân Long

Inst

22.8%

18.1 trieu

nguyen-thanh-thuy

Indiv

3.0%

2.4 trieu

Võ Thị Minh Ngọc

Indiv

1.3%

1.1 trieu

Đỗ Bích Vân

Indiv

0.7%

206.000

Nguyễn Thái Đạo

Indiv

0.4%

355.488

Nguyễn Trọng Quý

Indiv

0.4%

182.808

Vũ Trọng Độ

Indiv

0.3%

257.098

Trần Thị Thanh Huyền

Indiv

0.3%

212.971

Hồ Sĩ Thuận

Indiv

0.2%

180.000

Lê Trúc Lâm

Indiv

0.2%

180.000

Nguyễn Xuân Lộc

Indiv

0.2%

164.040

Phạm Văn Nghĩa

Indiv

0.2%

159.378

Trần Thúy Hằng

Indiv

0.1%

120.463

Nguyễn Xuân Quyền

Indiv

0.1%

104.293

Nguyễn Thị Quỳnh Anh

Indiv

0.1%

25.000

Trần Hồng Kiên

Indiv

0.1%

50.000

Board & Management

Nguyễn Thái Đạo0.4%

Kế toán trưởng

Nguyễn Trọng Quý0.4%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Vũ Trọng Độ0.3%

Phó Giám đốc

Hồ Sĩ Thuận0.2%

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Giám đốc

Nguyễn Xuân Lộc0.2%

Phó Giám đốc

Ngô Mạnh Hà

Phó Giám đốc

Hồ Sỹ Hùng

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Bùi Lan Anh

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Hoài Phương

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Đoàn Đình Hiếu

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Thế Anh

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Hà Hữu Anh

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Phạm Thị Huyền Trang

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Top connections

GSP68.0%PVP64.9%PTT54.1%PHN5.0%BBS4.8%EBS4.8%GLT3.0%SB13.0%BSD3.0%BSP3.0%CTB3.0%BSL3.0%

Computed 12/04/2026