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Consumer sector

BSD

Consumer
Công ty Cổ phần Bia, Rượu Sài Gòn - Đồng Xuân
Thực phẩm và đồ uống/Bia và đồ uốngCT
23.000
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
76.800
Current
23.000
Gap
+233.9%
ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CTThực phẩm và đồ uốngConsumer
Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Thực phẩm và đồ uống" maps to the consumer group
ModelFCF-Based DCF
Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.800
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
10.10%
Ke
10.10%
x
E/(D+E)
49.95%
+
Kd(1-t)
6.30%
x
D/(D+E)
50.05%
=
WACC
10.00%
2
Growth Estimate
Sector Default4.00%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
Base FCF12.20B
Projection years10
4
Valuation
Base FCF
12.20B
Growth Rate
4.00%
WACC
10.00%
Terminal Growth
4.00%
DCF Value
76.800
Value Decomposition
43%
57%
Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — BSD

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

55
Fair
Accrual Quality
65
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
11
Margin Stability
65
Revenue Quality
10

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.49
Moderate
DSRI
1.623
GMI
0.921
AQI
0.798
SGI
0.988
DEPI
1.034
SGAI
1.060
TATA
-0.088
LVGI
1.088

The Beneish M-Score of -2.4868 indicates a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is well below the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality metrics reveal significant weaknesses, particularly in receivables and revenue recognition, which could pose risks to financial integrity.

Red Flags
  • Receivables quality score at 11.3/100 indicates potential issues with revenue recognition.
  • Revenue quality score at 9.7/100 suggests significant concerns regarding the sustainability of reported revenues.
Positive Signals
  • Beneish M-Score of -2.4868 suggests a low likelihood of earnings manipulation.
  • Cash conversion score of 100.0/100 indicates strong cash flow generation relative to earnings.
Ownership Risk

The top shareholder, Tổng Công ty Cổ phần Bia - Rượu - Nước Giải khát Sài Gòn, holds a dominant 51.2% stake, which may lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest in decision-making.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor the company's receivables and revenue recognition practices while considering a cautious approach to investment, given the elevated risks associated with earnings quality.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
7/9
Strong
Z-Score
3.37
Safe Zone
Sharpe
0.31
Positive
Composite
53
Fair
Price Risk
Momentum
-14.2%
Volatility
137.3%
Max Drawdown
-58.3%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
12.87P/E
P/B0.99
P/S0.21
ROE7.8%
ROA4.0%
EPS1787.07
BVPS23137.72
Gross Margin6.3%
Net Margin1.6%
D/E1.00
Current Ratio0.99
Rev Growth-1.2%
Profit Growth11.7%
EV/EBITDA3.43
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
3.0M
Charter Capital
30.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Thực phẩm và đồ uống
Industry (ICB L3)
Bia và đồ uống
Sub-industry
Sản xuất bia
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for BSD — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Tổng Công ty Cổ phần Bia - Rượu - Nước Giải khát Sài Gòn
Inst
51.2%
1.5 trieu
Nguyễn Ngọc Hoàn
Indiv
5.1%
151.800
Công ty Cổ phần Rượu Bình Tây
Inst
5.0%
150.000
Nguyễn Văn Thìn
Indiv
1.7%
50.700
Vi Thị Phố
Indiv
1.3%
39.900
Nguyễn Xuân Hải
Indiv
1.3%
40.000
Nguyễn Thị Liên Hà
Indiv
1.0%
31.000
Nguyễn Thị Thúy Hiệp
Indiv
0.8%
25.000
Dương Thế Quang
Indiv
0.3%
10.000
Nguyễn Hồng Tiến
Indiv
0.2%
5.000
nguyen-thanh-thuy
Indiv
0.1%
4.250
Board & Management
Nguyễn Thị Liên Hà1.0%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Dương Thế Quang0.3%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Hồng Tiến0.2%
Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Thanh Thuỷ0.1%
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Ngô Văn Phong
Phó Giám đốc
Lê Thị Lan Anh
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Trần Hoàng Nam
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Hoàng Thị Bình
Kế toán trưởng
Hoàng Thanh Vân
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
NGUYỄN TIẾN DŨNG
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Thảo Nguyên
Người phụ trách quản trị công ty
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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