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Consumer sector

BSL

Consumer
Công ty Cổ phần Bia Sài Gòn - Sông Lam
Thực phẩm và đồ uống/Bia và đồ uốngCT
11.500
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
26.134
Current
11.500
Gap
+127.3%
ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CTThực phẩm và đồ uốngConsumer
Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Thực phẩm và đồ uống" maps to the consumer group
ModelFCF-Based DCF
Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.800
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
10.10%
Ke
10.10%
x
E/(D+E)
76.75%
+
Kd(1-t)
6.35%
x
D/(D+E)
23.25%
=
WACC
10.00%
2
Growth Estimate
Sector Default4.00%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
Base FCF65.41B
Projection years10
4
Valuation
Base FCF
65.41B
Growth Rate
4.00%
WACC
10.00%
Terminal Growth
4.00%
DCF Value
26.134
Value Decomposition
43%
57%
Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — BSL

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

60
Fair
Accrual Quality
79
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
100
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-1.76
Elevated
DSRI
2.146
GMI
1.027
AQI
0.941
SGI
0.952
DEPI
0.878
SGAI
0.931
TATA
-0.052
LVGI
1.120

BSL exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -1.764, indicating a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, but several components raise concerns about earnings quality. The high DSRI suggests potential issues with inventory management, while the low receivables and revenue scores indicate challenges in cash collection and revenue recognition.

Red Flags
  • DSRI of 2.1464 indicates a significant increase in inventory relative to sales, suggesting potential overstocking or demand issues.
  • EQ Receivables score of 0.0/100 shows an alarming inability to convert sales into cash, raising liquidity concerns.
  • SGI of 0.9523 suggests a decline in sales growth, which may indicate weakening market demand.
Positive Signals
  • Earnings Quality Score of 59.8/100, particularly strong cash conversion at 100.0/100, suggests that cash flows are being generated effectively despite other concerns.
  • Beneish M-Score of -1.764 is above the manipulation threshold of -1.78, indicating a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with 68.8% held by a single institution, which may lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest. This concentration could limit minority shareholders' influence and oversight.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor inventory levels and receivables management while considering a cautious approach to investment in BSL. Engaging with management on improving cash collection and sales growth strategies is advisable.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
6/9
Neutral
Z-Score
4.18
Safe Zone
Sharpe
0.31
Positive
Composite
71
Strong
Price Risk
Momentum
+24.4%
Volatility
74.3%
Max Drawdown
-23.1%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
11.18P/E
P/B0.92
P/S0.53
ROE8.3%
ROA6.4%
EPS938.98
BVPS11413.79
Gross Margin5.9%
Net Margin4.7%
D/E0.30
Current Ratio3.39
Rev Growth-4.8%
Profit Growth4.7%
EV/EBITDA4.21
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
45.0M
Charter Capital
450.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Thực phẩm và đồ uống
Industry (ICB L3)
Bia và đồ uống
Sub-industry
Sản xuất bia
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for BSL — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Tổng Công ty Cổ phần Bia - Rượu - Nước Giải khát Sài Gòn
Inst
68.8%
30.9 trieu
Văn Bảo Ngọc
Indiv
3.9%
1.8 trieu
Công Ty Cổ Phần Đầu Tư Thái Bình
Inst
3.7%
1.7 trieu
nguyen-thi-hanh
Indiv
0.9%
400.000
Văn Thảo Nguyên
Indiv
0.9%
400.000
Võ Hải Thanh
Indiv
0.4%
197.100
Văn Thanh Liêm
Indiv
0.4%
182.673
nguyen-huynh-loan-anh
Indiv
0.1%
50.000
Nguyễn Hồng Anh
Indiv
0.1%
50.000
nguyen-minh-anh
Indiv
0.1%
50.000
Board & Management
Võ Hải Thanh0.4%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Giám đốc
Văn Thanh Liêm0.4%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Hồng Anh0.1%
Phó Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Hoàng Lâm Hòa
Phó Giám đốc
Trần Thị Nguyệt
Trưởng Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ
Bùi Hải Nam
Thành viên Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ
Cao Thanh Bích
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Lưu Thanh Thảo
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Văn Bá Thi
Kế toán trưởng
Nguyễn Thị Thùy Dung
Người phụ trách quản trị công ty
Hoàng Thanh Vân
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Tiến Dũng
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Lê Thị Hoàng Đan
Thành viên Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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