PVP

Construction

Công ty Cổ phần Vận tải Dầu khí Thái Bình Dương

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Vận tảiCT

15.050

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

High

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

53.332

Current

15.050

Gap

+254.4%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

61.39%

Kd(1-t)

6.31%

D/(D+E)

38.61%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend4.85%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

19.620

50%DCF Value

87.043

Blended Intrinsic

53.332

Value Decomposition

35%

65%

Explicit period (35%)Terminal value (65%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — PVP

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Good

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.65

Low Risk

DSRI

0.725

GMI

1.551

AQI

0.971

SGI

1.340

DEPI

0.754

SGAI

0.670

TATA

-0.117

LVGI

0.922

PVP exhibits an elevated risk of earnings manipulation as indicated by its Beneish M-Score of -2.6459, which is significantly below the manipulation threshold of -1.78. While the earnings quality score of 75.1 suggests reasonable overall performance, specific metrics reveal weaknesses that warrant caution.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of -2.6459 indicates potential earnings manipulation risk, significantly below the threshold of -1.78.
Revenue quality score of 31.0/100 suggests significant concerns regarding the sustainability and recognition of revenue.

Positive Signals

Earnings quality score of 75.1/100 reflects a generally strong earnings profile, particularly in cash conversion (100.0/100) and receivables (100.0/100).
DSRI of 0.7251 indicates that the company's inventory is well-managed relative to sales, which can be a positive sign.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with Tổng Công ty Cổ phần Vận tải Dầu khí holding 64.9%, which may lead to governance issues and reduced minority shareholder influence.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor PVP's financial disclosures for signs of earnings manipulation and consider diversifying their holdings due to the concentrated ownership structure. A thorough review of revenue recognition practices is advisable.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

6/9

Neutral

Z-Score

2.31

Grey Zone

Sharpe

-0.26

Negative

Composite

Strong

Price Risk

Momentum

-3.0%

Volatility

22.7%

Max Drawdown

-24.9%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

7.72P/E

P/B0.79

P/S0.64

ROE10.5%

ROA6.3%

EPS1916.88

BVPS18626.31

Gross Margin12.1%

Net Margin8.3%

D/E0.63

Current Ratio3.42

Rev Growth34.0%

Profit Growth-4.0%

EV/EBITDA2.92

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

103.7M

Charter Capital

1037.0B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp

Industry (ICB L3)

Vận tải

Sub-industry

Dịch vụ vận tải

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for PVP — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Tổng Công ty Cổ phần Vận tải Dầu khí

Inst

64.9%

67.3 trieu

Lê Ngọc Anh

Indiv

6.7%

7.0 trieu

Quỹ Đầu tư Tăng trưởng Thiên Việt 3

Indiv

2.4%

2.2 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Chứng khoán Thiên Việt

Inst

2.3%

2.2 trieu

Quỹ Đầu tư Tăng trưởng Thiên Việt 4

Indiv

1.5%

1.4 trieu

Lê Minh Đức

Indiv

1.0%

1.0 trieu

Lê Ngọc Ý

Indiv

0.8%

780.310

Board & Management

Lê Mạnh Hùng

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Lan Hương

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Khiếu Trung Trực

Phó Giám đốc

Hoàng Đức Chính

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Đoàn Đình Hiếu

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Lê Hoàng Phương

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Lê Mạnh Tuấn

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Giám đốc

Huỳnh Thị Hồng Hạnh

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Hà Hữu Anh

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Vũ Ngọc Khôi

Phó Giám đốc

Phan Phong Phúc

Kế toán trưởng

Lê Trúc Lâm

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Top connections

GSP2 links PTT64.9%PDV64.9%FUCTVGF517.7%FUCTVGF312.8%VE211.9%PHC10.1%DCM2 links DSD7.8%V126.7%MPC6.7%SDG6.7%

Computed 12/04/2026