GSP

Construction

Công ty Cổ phần Vận tải Sản phẩm Khí Quốc tế

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Vận tảiCT

11.450

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

14.088

Current

11.450

Gap

+23.0%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

49.89%

Kd(1-t)

6.40%

D/(D+E)

50.11%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend4.60%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

10.620

50%DCF Value

17.557

Blended Intrinsic

14.088

Value Decomposition

35%

65%

Explicit period (35%)Terminal value (65%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — GSP

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Good

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-1.36

High Risk

DSRI

1.284

GMI

1.710

AQI

1.593

SGI

1.595

DEPI

0.842

SGAI

0.607

TATA

-0.065

LVGI

1.114

GSP shows a Beneish M-Score of -1.3645, indicating a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is above the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality score of 72.1 suggests some areas of concern, particularly in revenue recognition and profit margins.

Red Flags

SGI of 1.5954 indicates aggressive sales growth which may not be sustainable.
EQ margin of 54.0/100 is low, suggesting potential issues with profitability.
EQ revenue score of 2.9/100 raises concerns about revenue recognition practices.

Positive Signals

High cash conversion score of 100.0/100 indicates strong cash flow management.
Ownership concentration with 68.0% held by a state-owned enterprise may provide stability.

Ownership Risk

The high concentration of ownership by Tổng Công ty Cổ phần Vận tải Dầu khí (68.0%) may limit minority shareholder influence and increase risks related to governance and transparency.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor revenue recognition practices and profitability metrics while considering a cautious approach due to ownership concentration risks.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

5/9

Neutral

Z-Score

2.44

Grey Zone

Sharpe

-0.16

Negative

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

+4.4%

Volatility

25.3%

Max Drawdown

-22.6%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

7.72P/E

P/B0.83

P/S0.21

ROE11.1%

ROA5.2%

EPS1443.56

BVPS13481.82

Gross Margin5.0%

Net Margin2.7%

D/E1.23

Current Ratio1.24

Rev Growth59.5%

Profit Growth-3.2%

EV/EBITDA4.01

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

67.5M

Charter Capital

675.2B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp

Industry (ICB L3)

Vận tải

Sub-industry

Vận tải Thủy

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for GSP — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Tổng Công ty Cổ phần Vận tải Dầu khí

Inst

68.0%

45.9 trieu

Nguyễn Hồng Hiệp

Indiv

4.2%

1.5 trieu

Ngân hàng Thương mại Cổ phần Quốc tế Việt Nam

Inst

3.3%

1.0 trieu

The Knowledge Company Inc

Inst

3.3%

1.0 trieu

Indochina No.1 Limited Liability Partnership

Inst

3.3%

1.0 trieu

Công ty TNHH Quản lý quỹ đầu tư chứng khoán Vietcombank

Inst

1.7%

501.110

afc vietnam fund

Inst

1.4%

422.810

Pension Reserves Investment Trust Fund

Inst

1.2%

357.330

Công ty Cổ phần Quản Lý Quỹ Thiên Việt

Inst

1.1%

340.000

Công ty Cổ phần Chứng khoán Thiên Việt

Inst

0.9%

257.960

Dương Đình Quốc Hưng

Indiv

0.6%

200.000

Công ty Cổ phần Chứng khoán Dầu khí

Inst

0.5%

146.540

Tổng Công ty Cổ phần Bảo Minh

Inst

0.4%

130.000

Tundra Sustainable Frontier Fund

Inst

0.4%

113.000

acadian frontier markets equity fund

Inst

0.2%

64.800

america limited liability company

Inst

0.1%

43.120

Board & Management

Nguyễn Thế Anh

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Nguyễn Cảnh Toàn

Phó Giám đốc

Nguyễn Thị Thu Sương

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Huỳnh Thị Hồng Hạnh

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Bá Nghị

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Lê Anh Nam

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Kế toán trưởng

Vũ Văn Đức

Phó Giám đốc

Võ Vĩnh Đạt

Người phụ trách quản trị công ty

Nguyễn Linh Giang

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Vũ Thị Phương Nga

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Đoàn Đức Trọng

Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Phạm Thị Trúc

Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Top connections

PVP2 links PTT2 links PDV68.0%SGN25.0%WCS23.6%DNM22.7%DAD18.9%IDV18.0%FUCTVGF517.7%MTS17.7%SZL16.1%BAX16.1%

Computed 12/04/2026