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Utilities sector

PGC

Utilities
Tổng Công ty Gas Petrolimex - Công ty Cổ phần
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt/Nước & Khí đốtCT
13.850
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
High
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
22.046
Current
13.850
Gap
+59.2%
ModelDDM 3STAGE

Valuation Breakdown

CTĐiện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốtUtility
Classified as utility because ICB sector "Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt" maps to the utility group
Model3-Stage DDM
Value = Sum of [DPS x (1+g)^t / (1+Ke)^t] + Terminal Dividend / (Ke - g_terminal)

The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+). As John D. Rockefeller said: "The only thing that gives me pleasure is to see my dividends coming in."

1
Cost of Equity (Ke)
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.600
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
8.70%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental equity blend3.69%
3
Model Inputs
DPS source:Actual dividends
DPS1.100
Payout ratio63.0%
4
Valuation
Dividends Per Share
1.100
Base Growth
3.69%
Cost of Equity
8.70%
Terminal Growth
3.50%
DDM Value
22.046
Value Decomposition
25%
75%
Explicit period (25%)Terminal value (75%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — PGC

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

77
Good
Accrual Quality
88
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
97
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.89
Low Risk
DSRI
0.903
GMI
0.939
AQI
0.470
SGI
1.088
DEPI
1.094
SGAI
1.087
TATA
-0.029
LVGI
1.022

PGC exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -2.8856, indicating a low likelihood of earnings manipulation. However, the earnings quality metrics reveal a concerning score of 0.0/100 for revenue quality, which may suggest potential issues in revenue recognition.

Red Flags
  • Earnings quality score of 0.0/100 for revenue indicates significant concerns regarding revenue recognition practices.
  • The SGI of 1.0880 suggests that sales growth is outpacing industry norms, which could be a sign of aggressive accounting practices.
Positive Signals
  • Beneish M-Score of -2.8856 is well below the manipulation threshold of -1.78, indicating a lower risk of earnings manipulation.
  • Strong earnings quality metrics with an overall score of 77.1/100, particularly high scores in cash conversion (100.0/100) and receivables (100.0/100), suggesting solid operational performance.
Ownership Risk

The top shareholder, Tập đoàn Xăng dầu Việt Nam, holds a significant 52.4% stake, which may lead to potential conflicts of interest and reduced minority shareholder influence.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor revenue recognition practices and consider conducting further due diligence on the company's sales growth claims. Given the strong cash conversion metrics, PGC may still present a viable investment opportunity if revenue concerns are addressed.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
6/9
Neutral
Z-Score
2.02
Grey Zone
Sharpe
-0.36
Negative
Composite
64
Fair
Price Risk
Momentum
-3.0%
Volatility
20.0%
Max Drawdown
-14.6%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
7.66P/E
P/B0.99
P/S0.18
ROE12.9%
ROA3.7%
EPS1866.77
BVPS14452.28
Gross Margin18.4%
Net Margin2.4%
D/E2.56
Current Ratio1.16
Rev Growth8.2%
Profit Growth3.9%
EV/EBITDA12.94
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
60.3M
Charter Capital
603.4B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
Industry (ICB L3)
Nước & Khí đốt
Sub-industry
Phân phối xăng dầu & khí đốt
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for PGC — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Tập đoàn Xăng dầu Việt Nam
Inst
52.4%
31.6 trieu
Trần Vũ Nam
Indiv
5.0%
3.0 trieu
Vũ Thị Hồng Điệp
Indiv
5.0%
3.0 trieu
Công ty Cổ phần Quản lý quỹ đầu tư MB
Inst
4.5%
2.7 trieu
Công ty TNHH Bảo hiểm Nhân thọ MB Ageas
Inst
1.4%
863.800
Trần Văn Thành
Indiv
1.1%
637.537
Quỹ Đầu tư Giá trị MB Capital
Inst
0.6%
346.712
Board & Management
Trần Vũ Nam5.0%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Vũ Hồng Khánh
Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Thị Thanh Huyền
Kế toán trưởng
Nguyễn Khắc Trí
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Phan Phương Anh
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Kiều Văn Chiến
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Lê Thị Hải
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Doãn Duy Đạo
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Đỗ Thị Vân Chi
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Đăng Công
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Hữu Quang
Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Quang Dũng
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Phạm Thanh Sơn
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Computed 12/04/2026
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