PSC

Construction

Công ty Cổ phần Vận tải và Dịch vụ Petrolimex Sài Gòn

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Vận tảiCT

11.000

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

7.656

Current

11.000

Gap

-30.4%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

51.04%

Kd(1-t)

4.31%

D/(D+E)

48.96%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend4.34%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

21.164

50%DCF Value

-5.853

Blended Intrinsic

7.656

Value Decomposition

35%

65%

Explicit period (35%)Terminal value (65%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — PSC

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Fair

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-1.19

High Risk

DSRI

2.316

GMI

1.090

AQI

0.787

SGI

1.107

DEPI

0.996

SGAI

0.941

TATA

0.015

LVGI

1.171

The Beneish M-Score of -1.1897 indicates a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is above the threshold of -1.78. However, the high DSRI of 2.3160 and poor earnings quality metrics suggest potential concerns regarding revenue recognition and cash conversion.

Red Flags

DSRI of 2.3160 indicates that accounts receivable are growing significantly faster than revenue, which may signal aggressive revenue recognition practices.
Earnings Quality Score of 52.7/100 is concerning, particularly with an eq_margin and eq_revenue both at 0.0/100, indicating poor profitability and revenue reliability.

Positive Signals

The eq_accrual score of 94.1/100 suggests that the company has a strong ability to convert earnings into cash, which is a positive indicator despite other red flags.
The ownership structure shows significant institutional ownership (69.4%), which may provide stability and a level of oversight.

Ownership Risk

The high concentration of ownership by Tập đoàn Xăng dầu Việt Nam (52.7%) could lead to potential conflicts of interest, especially in decision-making processes that may not align with minority shareholders' interests.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor cash flow and revenue recognition practices, considering a cautious approach given the elevated risk signals. Engaging with management to clarify revenue policies and future cash flow projections could provide additional insights.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

4/9

Neutral

Z-Score

3.23

Safe Zone

Sharpe

0.16

Positive

Composite

Weak

Price Risk

Momentum

-5.8%

Volatility

78.3%

Max Drawdown

-23.8%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

10.23P/E

P/B0.65

P/S0.10

ROE6.6%

ROA3.1%

EPS1075.15

BVPS16834.85

Gross Margin9.8%

Net Margin1.0%

D/E1.32

Current Ratio0.90

Rev Growth10.7%

Profit Growth681.4%

EV/EBITDA3.25

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

7.2M

Charter Capital

72.0B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp

Industry (ICB L3)

Vận tải

Sub-industry

Dịch vụ vận tải

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for PSC — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Tập đoàn Xăng dầu Việt Nam

Inst

52.7%

3.8 trieu

Công Ty Cổ Phần Đầu Tư Partners Việt Nam

Inst

16.7%

1.2 trieu

Phạm Chí Giao

Indiv

6.4%

460.000

Phạm Anh Tuấn

Indiv

4.5%

321.000

Phạm Chí Hà

Indiv

1.6%

117.266

Nguyễn Thị Ngọc Sương

Indiv

1.5%

106.000

Nguyễn Xuân Thái

Indiv

1.3%

90.000

Phạm Anh Tú

Indiv

0.9%

67.500

Phạm Anh Tiến

Indiv

0.9%

67.500

Đào Trung Dũng

Indiv

0.9%

66.533

nguyen-tien-nghia

Indiv

0.8%

60.198

Vũ Hồng Châu

Indiv

0.7%

46.936

Nguyễn Văn Bính

Indiv

0.4%

30.000

Phạm Thị Như Quỳnh

Indiv

0.4%

30.000

Lê Thị Bằng

Indiv

0.2%

14.500

Trần Thị Lan Hải

Indiv

0.2%

22.500

Trịnh Văn Tâm

Indiv

0.2%

18.330

Ngô Anh Dũng

Indiv

0.1%

10.500

Board & Management

Phạm Chí Giao6.4%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Phạm Anh Tuấn4.5%

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Xuân Thái1.3%

Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Tiến Nghĩa0.8%

Phó Giám đốc

Nguyễn Văn Bình0.4%

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Lưu Thị Hồng Trinh

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin

Vũ Hoàng Chương

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Đặng Thị Thu

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Lê Anh Tuấn

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Tiến Nhương

Phó Giám đốc

Bùi Trung Định

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Top connections

PLC79.1%VPA58.0%PGC52.7%PJC52.7%PTX52.7%PGI52.7%PGB52.7%VSE52.7%BMF52.7%VPG25.8%ECO20.0%TST17.0%

Computed 12/04/2026