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Cyclicals sector

PLC

Cyclicals
Tổng Công ty Hóa dầu Petrolimex - Công ty Cổ phần
Hóa chấtCT
23.300
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
34.318
Current
23.300
Gap
+47.3%
ModelEV EBITDA MIDCYCLE

Valuation Breakdown

CTHóa chấtCyclical
Classified as cyclical because ICB sector "Hóa chất" maps to the cyclical group
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA317.71B
Fair EV/EBITDA13.1x
Years of data7
2
Valuation
Mid-Cycle EBITDA
317.71B
x
Fair EV/EBITDA
13.1x
-
Net Debt
1402.55B
=
Equity Value
34.318
Years of data7

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — PLC

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

48
Weak
Accrual Quality
92
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.58
Low Risk
DSRI
0.706
GMI
0.928
AQI
1.092
SGI
1.122
DEPI
0.942
SGAI
1.154
TATA
0.020
LVGI
0.992

PLC exhibits several concerning indicators regarding earnings quality and potential manipulation. Although the Beneish M-Score of -2.5822 suggests a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation, the earnings quality score of 47.6/100, particularly low cash conversion metrics, raises significant concerns.

Red Flags
  • Earnings Quality Score of 47.6/100 indicates poor earnings quality, particularly with cash conversion at 0.0/100.
  • The SGI of 1.1215 suggests that sales growth may not be sustainable, which could lead to future earnings shortfalls.
Positive Signals
  • Beneish M-Score of -2.5822 is below the manipulation threshold of -1.78, indicating a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation.
  • Strong receivables score of 100.0/100 suggests effective management of accounts receivable.
Ownership Risk

The high concentration of ownership with Tập đoàn Xăng dầu Việt Nam holding 79.1% raises concerns about minority shareholder rights and potential governance issues.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor cash flow metrics and consider a cautious approach to investing in PLC, given the elevated risks associated with earnings quality and ownership concentration.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
5/9
Neutral
Z-Score
2.60
Grey Zone
Sharpe
0.46
Positive
Composite
53
Fair
Price Risk
Momentum
+7.1%
Volatility
54.1%
Max Drawdown
-29.5%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
177.56P/E
P/B1.97
P/S0.31
ROE1.1%
ROA0.3%
EPS167.83
BVPS15132.96
Gross Margin12.8%
Net Margin0.2%
D/E2.21
Current Ratio1.17
Rev Growth12.2%
Profit Growth-68.6%
EV/EBITDA18.13
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
80.8M
Charter Capital
808.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hóa chất
Industry (ICB L3)
Hóa chất
Sub-industry
Sản phẩm hóa dầu, Nông dược & Hóa chất khác
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for PLC — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Tập đoàn Xăng dầu Việt Nam
Inst
79.1%
63.9 trieu
PHEIM AIZAWA TRUST
Inst
0.8%
628.029
Trần Nguyễn Ngọc Linh
Indiv
0.8%
607.142
Vũ Văn Chiến
Indiv
0.5%
400.050
nguyen-van-duc
Indiv
0.2%
151.823
nguyen-thanh-son
Indiv
0.1%
86.527
Board & Management
Hà Thanh Tuấn
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Phương Thảo Hiền
Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Kế toán trưởng
LÊ QUANG TUẤN
Tổng Giám đốc
Phạm Tuấn Phương
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Đoàn Hồng Sáng
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Lương Thị Ngọc Anh
Thành viên Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ
Trần Tuấn Linh
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Đinh Thị Kiều Trang
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
ĐỖ HỮU TẠO
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Thanh Khương
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Hà Trung
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a methodology engine — not an advisor. Every number is the deterministic output of a published formula applied to public financial data. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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