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Cyclicals sector

DCM

Cyclicals
Công ty Cổ phần - Tổng Công ty Phân bón Dầu Khí Cà Mau
Hóa chấtCT
48.500
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Very Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
39.001
Current
48.500
Gap
-19.6%
ModelEV EBITDA MIDCYCLE

Valuation Breakdown

CTHóa chấtCyclical
Classified as cyclical because ICB sector "Hóa chất" maps to the cyclical group
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA1961.59B
Fair EV/EBITDA9.9x
Years of data7
2
Valuation
Mid-Cycle EBITDA
1961.59B
x
Fair EV/EBITDA
9.9x
-
Net Debt
-1307.85B
=
Equity Value
39.001
Years of data7

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — DCM

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

24
Poor
Accrual Quality
45
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
100
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-0.86
High Risk
DSRI
1.927
GMI
0.767
AQI
1.056
SGI
1.236
DEPI
0.891
SGAI
1.160
TATA
0.155
LVGI
1.100

DCM exhibits several concerning indicators, particularly with a Beneish M-Score of -0.8637, which is well above the manipulation threshold of -1.78. The earnings quality score of 23.6/100, especially the cash conversion and receivables metrics at 0.0/100, raises significant red flags regarding the reliability of reported earnings.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of -0.8637 indicates potential earnings manipulation risk, as it is above the threshold of -1.78.
  • Earnings Quality Score of 23.6/100, with cash conversion and receivables both at 0.0/100, suggests severe issues in cash flow management and revenue recognition.
Positive Signals
  • The gross margin score of 100.0/100 indicates strong operational efficiency in terms of cost management.
Ownership Risk

The high concentration of ownership, with 75.6% held by Tập Đoàn Công Nghiệp – Năng Lượng Quốc Gia Việt Nam, poses a risk of governance issues and lack of minority shareholder protection in decision-making processes.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and closely monitor DCM's financial disclosures and operational performance. Consider waiting for improved earnings quality metrics and transparency before making investment decisions.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
5/9
Neutral
Z-Score
3.60
Safe Zone
Sharpe
0.37
Positive
Composite
32
Weak
Price Risk
Momentum
+4.2%
Volatility
31.0%
Max Drawdown
-29.8%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
13.10P/E
P/B2.39
P/S1.54
ROE18.7%
ROA11.7%
EPS3701.95
BVPS20330.40
Gross Margin24.3%
Net Margin11.8%
D/E0.63
Current Ratio2.43
Rev Growth23.5%
Profit Growth38.0%
EV/EBITDA10.85
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
529.4M
Charter Capital
5294.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hóa chất
Industry (ICB L3)
Hóa chất
Sub-industry
Sản phẩm hóa dầu, Nông dược & Hóa chất khác
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for DCM — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Tập Đoàn Công Nghiệp – Năng Lượng Quốc Gia Việt Nam
Inst
75.6%
400.0 trieu
Công ty Cổ phần Quản lý quỹ Ngân hàng TMCP Đại chúng Việt nam
Inst
8.4%
44.6 trieu
Công ty Cổ phần Quản lý quỹ Ngân hàng TMCP Đại chúng Việt nam
Inst
5.0%
26.3 trieu
CTBC Vietnam Equity Fund
Inst
2.2%
11.5 trieu
Norges Bank
Inst
1.8%
9.3 trieu
DC Developing Markets Strategies Public Limited Company
Inst
0.9%
5.0 trieu
Board & Management
Văn Tiến Thanh
Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Thanh Tùng
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Đinh Như Cường
Kế toán trưởng
Đỗ Minh Đương
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Lê Ngọc Minh Trí
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Phan Thị Cẩm Hương
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Trần Ngọc Nguyên
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Thị Hiền
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Tuấn Anh
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Đỗ Minh Dương
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Đỗ Thành Hưng
Người phụ trách quản trị công ty
Trần Văn Bình
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Trần Mỹ
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin
Trương Hồng
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập
Lê Đức Quang
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập
Đỗ Thị Hoa
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a methodology engine — not an advisor. Every number is the deterministic output of a published formula applied to public financial data. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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