QHD

Construction

Công ty Cổ phần Que hàn điện Việt Đức

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Hàng công nghiệpCT

54.000

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

29.253

Current

54.000

Gap

-45.8%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

68.03%

Kd(1-t)

6.38%

D/(D+E)

31.97%

WACC

10.34%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend9.70%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

35.556

50%DCF Value

22.950

Blended Intrinsic

29.253

Value Decomposition

35%

65%

Explicit period (35%)Terminal value (65%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — QHD

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Good

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2020

-2.04

Moderate

DSRI

0.980

GMI

0.692

AQI

0.896

SGI

1.137

DEPI

0.900

SGAI

0.911

TATA

0.097

LVGI

0.730

The Beneish M-Score of -2.0366 indicates a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is below the manipulation threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality score of 58.8/100, particularly low cash conversion (46.5/100) and zero margin quality (0.0/100), raises concerns about the sustainability of earnings.

Red Flags

Earnings quality score of 58.8/100 indicates potential issues with cash conversion and margin quality, which could affect future profitability.
The SGI of 1.1373 suggests that sales growth is outpacing industry norms, which may indicate aggressive revenue recognition practices.

Positive Signals

The DSRI of 0.9799 indicates that accounts receivable are in line with sales, suggesting no immediate red flags regarding revenue recognition.
The high receivables quality score of 100.0/100 indicates strong management of receivables, which is a positive sign for cash flow.

Ownership Risk

The top shareholders are individuals with significant stakes, which may lead to concentrated control and potential governance issues. However, the diversity among individual shareholders may mitigate some risks associated with ownership concentration.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor the company's cash conversion and margin quality metrics while considering a cautious approach to investment, given the elevated risk level. A deeper analysis of revenue recognition practices is recommended to ensure long-term sustainability.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

6/9

Neutral

Z-Score

6.86

Safe Zone

Sharpe

1.68

Excellent

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

+70.4%

Volatility

53.6%

Max Drawdown

-16.3%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

14.68P/E

P/B2.81

P/S0.81

ROE20.2%

ROA13.6%

EPS3678.06

BVPS19194.69

Gross Margin15.6%

Net Margin5.5%

D/E0.49

Current Ratio2.51

Rev Growth23.8%

Profit Growth80.9%

EV/EBITDA9.72

Div Yield3.1%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

6.6M

Charter Capital

66.3B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp

Industry (ICB L3)

Hàng công nghiệp

Sub-industry

Công nghiệp phức hợp

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for QHD — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Ngô Văn Hùng

Indiv

12.6%

696.114

Phạm Văn Tư

Indiv

7.3%

312.563

Ngô Bá Việt

Indiv

5.2%

284.645

Ngô Duy Đông

Indiv

4.9%

270.925

Ngô Huy Đông

Indiv

4.9%

208.404

Phạm Hà Phương

Indiv

3.2%

135.000

Nguyễn Huy Tiến

Indiv

1.3%

71.363

Hoàng Xuân Thành

Indiv

0.5%

28.077

Nguyễn Thanh Khán

Indiv

0.4%

20.278

Đặng Quốc Dũng

Indiv

0.3%

15.000

Nguyễn Thị Quý

Indiv

0.2%

11.698

Đặng Trần Lương

Indiv

0.2%

7.794

Bùi Hồng Sơn

Indiv

0.2%

9.057

Trần Văn Sơn

Indiv

0.1%

6.000

Phạm Văn Chương

Indiv

0.1%

4.590

Board & Management

Ngô Bá Việt5.2%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Ngô Duy Đông4.9%

Phó Giám đốc Kinh doanh/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Huy Tiến1.3%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Giám đốc

Hoàng Xuân Thành0.5%

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Kế toán trưởng

Đặng Quốc Dũng0.3%

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Quốc Thành

Phó Giám đốc Kỹ thuật/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Lê Mạnh Hùng

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Thái Thị Hồng Loan

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Hữu Mải

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Top connections

THN20.9%SC520.0%PVH7.3%NTP6.9%VPL2.4%LGC2.0%TQN1.6%

Computed 12/04/2026