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Utilities sector

THN

Utilities
Công ty Cổ phần Cấp nước Thanh Hóa
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt/Nước & Khí đốtCT
3.800
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
20.998
Current
3.800
Gap
+452.6%
ModelDDM 3STAGE

Valuation Breakdown

CTĐiện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốtUtility
Classified as utility because ICB sector "Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt" maps to the utility group
Model3-Stage DDM
Value = Sum of [DPS x (1+g)^t / (1+Ke)^t] + Terminal Dividend / (Ke - g_terminal)

The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+). As John D. Rockefeller said: "The only thing that gives me pleasure is to see my dividends coming in."

1
Cost of Equity (Ke)
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.600
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
8.70%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental equity blend4.75%
3
Model Inputs
DPS source:Actual dividends
DPS1.009
Payout ratio57.9%
4
Valuation
Dividends Per Share
1.009
Base Growth
4.75%
Cost of Equity
8.70%
Terminal Growth
3.50%
DDM Value
20.998
Value Decomposition
25%
75%
Explicit period (25%)Terminal value (75%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — THN

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

87
Good
Accrual Quality
74
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
68
Revenue Quality
93

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2020

-2.92
Low Risk
DSRI
0.805
GMI
1.211
AQI
0.630
SGI
1.038
DEPI
1.013
SGAI
0.616
TATA
-0.074
LVGI
0.940

THN exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -2.9205, indicating a low likelihood of earnings manipulation. However, the Earnings Quality Score of 66.3/100 reveals weaknesses in revenue recognition and profit margins, which could pose risks to financial stability.

Red Flags
  • Earnings Quality Score of 66.3/100, particularly low eq_margin at 19.2/100, suggests potential issues with profitability.
  • GMI of 1.2105 indicates a rising gross margin, which could be misleading if not supported by actual revenue growth.
Positive Signals
  • DSRI of 0.8054 suggests that inventory levels are well managed relative to sales, indicating operational efficiency.
  • Cash conversion metrics are strong, with eq_cash_conv at 100.0/100, indicating effective cash management.
Ownership Risk

The significant state ownership at 63.6% may lead to potential governance risks, particularly in decision-making transparency and alignment with minority shareholders' interests.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor THN's revenue recognition practices and profit margins while considering the strong cash conversion metrics as a positive sign. A cautious approach is advised, given the moderate risk profile.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
5/9
Neutral
Z-Score
1.24
Distress Zone
Sharpe
0.00
Negative
Composite
79
Strong
Price Risk
Momentum
+0.0%
Volatility
0.8%
Max Drawdown
0.0%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
1.99P/E
P/B0.29
P/S0.26
ROE14.6%
ROA8.9%
EPS1907.65
BVPS13254.48
Gross Margin32.6%
Net Margin13.3%
D/E0.64
Current Ratio0.42
Rev Growth4.1%
Profit Growth1.3%
EV/EBITDA1.94
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
33.0M
Charter Capital
330.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
Industry (ICB L3)
Nước & Khí đốt
Sub-industry
Nước
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for THN — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Uỷ Ban Nhân Dân Tỉnh Thanh Hóa
State
63.6%
21.0 trieu
Phạm Văn Tư
Indiv
20.9%
6.9 trieu
Nguyễn Huy Nhắn
Indiv
3.2%
1.1 trieu
Nguyễn Ngọc Cần
Indiv
0.3%
107.900
Nguyễn Huy Nam
Indiv
0.3%
106.200
Lê Sỹ Len
Indiv
0.2%
57.400
Dương Văn Hóa
Indiv
0.2%
56.200
Lê Văn Sơn
Indiv
0.2%
57.700
Board & Management
Nguyễn Ngọc Cần0.3%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Huy Nam0.3%
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Lê Sỹ Len0.2%
Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Dương Văn Hóa0.2%
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Lê Thị Hà
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Lê Văn Quí
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Thị Nga
Kế toán trưởng
Trịnh Thị Huyền
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Lê Trung Hiếu
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Lê Ngọc Đỉnh
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Công Khanh
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Hùng Phương
Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Computed 12/04/2026
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