VPL

Cyclicals

Công ty Cổ phần Vinpearl

Du lịch và Giải trí/Du lịch & Giải tríCT

83.000

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Very Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

19.911

Current

83.000

Gap

-76.0%

ModelEV EBITDA MIDCYCLE

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Du lịch và Giải trí→Cyclical

Classified as cyclical because ICB sector "Du lịch và Giải trí" maps to the cyclical group

ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle

Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

Model Inputs

Mid-Cycle EBITDA→1336.96B

Fair EV/EBITDA→34.1x

Years of data→6

Valuation

Mid-Cycle EBITDA

1336.96B

Fair EV/EBITDA

34.1x

Net Debt

9892.11B

Equity Value

19.911

Years of data→6

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — VPL

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Fair

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.25

Moderate

DSRI

1.065

GMI

0.570

AQI

1.281

SGI

1.081

DEPI

0.931

SGAI

1.053

TATA

0.047

LVGI

0.983

VPL exhibits several concerning indicators suggesting potential earnings manipulation, particularly with a Beneish M-Score of -2.2538, which is below the manipulation threshold of -1.78. While the earnings quality score of 51.6 indicates some strengths, the cash conversion metric of 0.0 raises significant red flags regarding the company's ability to convert earnings into cash.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of -2.2538 indicates potential earnings manipulation, significantly below the threshold of -1.78.
Earnings quality cash conversion score of 0.0/100 suggests severe issues in converting earnings to actual cash flow.

Positive Signals

Receivables quality score of 100.0/100 indicates strong management of receivables, which is a positive sign for revenue collection.
The overall earnings quality score of 51.6/100 suggests that there are some aspects of earnings quality that are acceptable.

Ownership Risk

The high concentration of ownership, particularly with Tập đoàn Vingroup holding 85.5%, poses risks related to governance and potential conflicts of interest, limiting minority shareholders' influence.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor VPL's cash flow performance and consider reducing exposure until there is clearer evidence of improved earnings quality and transparency in financial reporting.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

3/9

Weak

Z-Score

2.35

Grey Zone

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

135.76P/E

P/B4.19

P/S9.88

ROE3.3%

ROA1.4%

EPS630.52

BVPS20422.67

Gross Margin34.9%

Net Margin7.3%

D/E1.37

Current Ratio1.13

Rev Growth8.1%

Profit Growth-55.7%

EV/EBITDA24.97

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

1793.3M

Charter Capital

17933.0B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Du lịch và Giải trí

Industry (ICB L3)

Du lịch & Giải trí

Sub-industry

Dịch vụ giải trí

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for VPL — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Tập đoàn Vingroup

Inst

85.5%

1.5 ty

Công ty Cổ Phần Tập Đoàn Đầu Tư Việt Nam

Inst

20.2%

41.6 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Đầu Tư Và Phát Triển Sinh Thái

Inst

15.9%

32.6 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Dịch vụ Thương mại Tổng hợp Wincommerce

Inst

15.2%

115.2 trieu

Công ty TNHH Đầu Tư Continental Pacific

Inst

14.2%

107.8 trieu

Phạm Nhật Vượng

Indiv

9.6%

19.8 trieu

Dynamic Invest Group Limited

Inst

9.5%

19.4 trieu

Phạm Thu Hương

Indiv

7.3%

14.9 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Phát triển Thành Phố Xanh

Inst

4.4%

9.0 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Truyền thông CK B.H.T

Inst

4.4%

9.0 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Vinhomes

Inst

4.0%

8.2 trieu

Nguyễn Quốc Thành

Indiv

2.4%

5.0 trieu

Ngạc Văn Lượng

Indiv

0.3%

4.9 trieu

Board & Management

Trần Khánh Vân

Kế toán trưởng

Nguyễn Khắc Duẩn

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Thế Anh

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Trần Thanh Mai

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Mai Hoa

Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Thường Tín

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Đặng Thanh Thủy

Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Mai Hương Nội

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Mai Thu Thủy

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Top connections

VEF2 links VHM85.5%VNB85.5%VIC5 links TQN14.4%WSS7.3%CTT7.3%DPG5.8%API4.6%TIN4.1%QHD2.4%LPB2.4%

Computed 12/04/2026