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Cyclicals sector

TQN

Cyclicals
Công ty Cổ phần Thông Quảng Ninh
Tài nguyên Cơ bản/Lâm nghiệp và GiấyCT
13.500
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
37.956
Current
13.500
Gap
+181.2%
ModelEV EBITDA MIDCYCLE

Valuation Breakdown

CTTài nguyên Cơ bảnCyclical
Classified as cyclical because ICB sector "Tài nguyên Cơ bản" maps to the cyclical group
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA46.37B
Fair EV/EBITDA7.4x
Years of data7
2
Valuation
Mid-Cycle EBITDA
46.37B
x
Fair EV/EBITDA
7.4x
-
Net Debt
208.54B
=
Equity Value
37.956
Years of data7

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — TQN

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

58
Fair
Accrual Quality
98
Cash Conversion
85
Receivables
13
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.84
Low Risk
DSRI
0.885
GMI
0.890
AQI
0.554
SGI
0.957
DEPI
0.897
SGAI
0.856
TATA
-0.005
LVGI
0.899

TQN exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -2.8385, indicating a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is significantly below the manipulation threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality metrics reveal concerning signs, particularly the low receivables and revenue scores, which suggest potential issues in revenue recognition and cash flow management.

Red Flags
  • Earnings Quality Score of 57.5/100 indicates moderate quality, with eq_receivables at only 12.7/100, suggesting potential issues in managing accounts receivable.
  • The eq_margin and eq_revenue scores are both at 0.0/100, indicating no margin or revenue quality, which raises concerns about the sustainability of earnings.
Positive Signals
  • The DSRI of 0.8847 suggests that inventory growth is lower than sales growth, which is generally a positive signal for operational efficiency.
  • The eq_accrual score of 98.1/100 indicates strong accrual quality, suggesting that reported earnings are backed by actual cash flows.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is concentrated among a few individuals, with the top five shareholders holding a combined 70.5% of shares. This concentration may lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor TQN's revenue recognition practices and cash flow management. It may be prudent to conduct further due diligence on the company's operational efficiency and governance structure before making investment decisions.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
7/9
Strong
Z-Score
2.99
Safe Zone
Sharpe
-0.36
Negative
Composite
53
Fair
Price Risk
Momentum
-15.8%
Volatility
84.4%
Max Drawdown
-39.9%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
0.98P/E
P/B0.18
P/S0.05
ROE20.0%
ROA9.4%
EPS13793.52
BVPS74123.61
Gross Margin9.0%
Net Margin4.6%
D/E1.01
Current Ratio1.80
Rev Growth-4.2%
Profit Growth139.7%
EV/EBITDA4.46
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
3.6M
Charter Capital
36.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Tài nguyên Cơ bản
Industry (ICB L3)
Lâm nghiệp và Giấy
Sub-industry
Lâm sản và Chế biến gỗ
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for TQN — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Dương Văn Thơm
Indiv
22.0%
791.330
Phan Thị Thành
Indiv
16.6%
596.394
Trần Việt Hùng
Indiv
14.4%
519.711
Ngô Xuân Trường
Indiv
9.5%
341.543
Lê Thị Vân
Indiv
7.6%
273.992
Dương Trọng Hiếu
Indiv
1.9%
68.609
Trần Văn Sơn
Indiv
1.6%
58.248
Tạ Ngọc Vượng
Indiv
1.2%
43.920
Nguyễn Mạnh Khiêm
Indiv
1.2%
43.643
Dương Trọng Hiền
Indiv
1.0%
34.887
Phan Tiến
Indiv
0.8%
27.492
Nguyễn Xuân Tú
Indiv
0.7%
26.496
Phạm Thị Hồng Dung
Indiv
0.6%
22.953
Board & Management
Dương Văn Thơm22.0%
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Trần Việt Hùng14.4%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Dương Trọng Hiếu1.9%
Tổng Giám đốc
Trần Văn Sơn1.6%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Tạ Ngọc Vượng1.2%
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Mạnh Khiêm1.2%
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Xuân Tú0.7%
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Thị Châm
Kế toán trưởng
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a methodology engine — not an advisor. Every number is the deterministic output of a published formula applied to public financial data. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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