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Cyclicals sector

VID

Cyclicals
Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư Phát triển Thương mại Viễn Đông
Tài nguyên Cơ bản/Lâm nghiệp và GiấyCT
4.900
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
5.157
Current
4.900
Gap
+5.2%
ModelEV EBITDA MIDCYCLE

Valuation Breakdown

CTTài nguyên Cơ bảnCyclical
Classified as cyclical because ICB sector "Tài nguyên Cơ bản" maps to the cyclical group
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA40.81B
Fair EV/EBITDA14.8x
Years of data7
2
Valuation
Mid-Cycle EBITDA
40.81B
x
Fair EV/EBITDA
14.8x
-
Net Debt
393.47B
=
Equity Value
5.157
Years of data7

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — VID

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

50
Weak
Accrual Quality
69
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
6
Revenue Quality
82

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-1.75
Elevated
DSRI
1.301
GMI
1.093
AQI
1.155
SGI
0.956
DEPI
1.018
SGAI
0.799
TATA
0.077
LVGI
1.069

VID's Beneish M-Score of -1.7549 is close to the manipulation threshold, indicating potential earnings manipulation. The earnings quality score of 49.5 suggests significant issues, particularly in cash conversion, which is at 0.0, raising concerns about the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of -1.7549 is just above the manipulation threshold of -1.78, indicating potential earnings manipulation.
  • Earnings quality score of 49.5/100, particularly low cash conversion score of 0.0/100, suggests poor earnings sustainability.
Positive Signals
  • Receivables quality score of 100.0/100 indicates strong management of receivables, which could suggest effective credit control.
Ownership Risk

The top shareholders are predominantly individuals, with the largest holding at 16.5%, which may lead to potential governance issues and lack of accountability in decision-making.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor cash flow statements and earnings reports for signs of manipulation. Consider a cautious approach to investment until clearer signals of financial stability emerge.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
4/9
Neutral
Z-Score
1.47
Distress Zone
Sharpe
-0.07
Negative
Composite
48
Weak
Price Risk
Momentum
+5.0%
Volatility
21.6%
Max Drawdown
-12.5%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
23.89P/E
P/B0.42
P/S0.18
ROE1.7%
ROA0.7%
EPS206.32
BVPS11760.48
Gross Margin5.6%
Net Margin0.7%
D/E0.76
Current Ratio1.20
Rev Growth-4.4%
Profit Growth21.3%
EV/EBITDA34.07
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
40.8M
Charter Capital
408.4B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Tài nguyên Cơ bản
Industry (ICB L3)
Lâm nghiệp và Giấy
Sub-industry
Sản xuất giấy
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for VID — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Bùi Quang Mẫn
Indiv
16.5%
5.1 trieu
Công Ty Cổ Phần Thương Mại Toàn Lực
Inst
7.9%
3.2 trieu
Nguyễn Thị Thu
Indiv
7.1%
2.9 trieu
Bùi Thị Ngọc Minh
Indiv
4.9%
2.0 trieu
Nguyễn Thị Thủy Tiên
Indiv
4.3%
1.7 trieu
Quỹ tầm nhìn SSI
Inst
3.2%
816.840
Bùi Thị Ngọc Yến
Indiv
3.1%
1.3 trieu
Bùi Quang Khoa
Indiv
2.7%
1.1 trieu
Trần Hoàng Nghĩa
Indiv
2.4%
993.138
Công ty Cổ phần Mai Lan
Inst
2.1%
547.492
Ngô Thị Ngọc Diệp
Indiv
1.7%
701.242
Bùi Quang Minh
Indiv
1.2%
501.604
Công ty TNHH Quản lý quỹ SSI
Inst
1.0%
247.380
nguyen-thi-viet-anh
Indiv
0.8%
202.000
Lê Nguyễn Thị Bích Trang
Indiv
0.7%
177.369
Trần Thị Thủy Tiên
Indiv
0.7%
238.234
Lê Thị Minh Giang
Indiv
0.6%
229.387
Võ Nguyên Khôi
Indiv
0.5%
127.330
Mai Thị Trúc Giang
Indiv
0.5%
191.926
Huỳnh Anh Tùng
Indiv
0.2%
38.825
Board & Management
Bùi Quang Mẫn16.5%
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Thị Thu7.1%
Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Thị Thủy Tiên4.3%
Kế toán trưởng
Bùi Thị Ngọc Yến3.1%
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Bùi Quang Khoa2.7%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Trần Hoàng Nghĩa2.4%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Bùi Quang Minh1.2%
Tổng Giám đốc
Lê Thị Minh Giang0.6%
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Mai Thị Trúc Giang0.5%
Trưởng Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ
Nguyễn Minh Hùng
Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Người phụ trách quản trị công ty
Trần Thị Thanh Thủy
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Đặng Thị Giang
Thành viên Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ
Phạm Thị Như Ngọc
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a methodology engine — not an advisor. Every number is the deterministic output of a published formula applied to public financial data. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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