SCR

Real Estate

Công ty Cổ phần Địa Ốc Sài Gòn Thương Tín

Bất động sảnCT

6.240

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Fairly Valued

Very Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

6.534

Current

6.240

Gap

+4.7%

ModelDCF LEVERAGE SCREEN

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Bất động sản→Real Estate

Classified as real estate because ICB sector "Bất động sản" maps to the real estate group

ModelRNAV + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 40% x (BVPS x 1.5) + 60% x DCF Value

Real estate developers in Vietnam report land banks at historical acquisition cost (Vietnamese Accounting Standards don't allow revaluation). This means book value severely understates true asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (revalued net asset value, applying a 1.5x factor to book value) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.300

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

13.60%

E/(D+E)

46.13%

Kd(1-t)

4.70%

D/(D+E)

53.87%

WACC

10.00%

+2% WACC penalty (high leverage)

Growth Estimate

Sector Default3.00%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

40%RNAV Proxy

13.069

60%DCF Value

-8.668

Blended Intrinsic

6.534

Value Decomposition

33%

67%

Explicit period (33%)Terminal value (67%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — SCR

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Weak

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.78

Low Risk

DSRI

0.580

GMI

-0.185

AQI

1.137

SGI

1.520

DEPI

0.768

SGAI

2.070

TATA

0.092

LVGI

1.086

SCR exhibits several concerning financial metrics that suggest potential earnings manipulation, particularly with a Beneish M-Score of -2.7824, which is well below the threshold indicating possible manipulation. The earnings quality score of 35.8/100 also raises alarms, particularly due to a cash conversion score of 0.0/100, indicating severe issues with cash flow relative to reported earnings.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of -2.7824 indicates potential earnings manipulation as it is below the threshold of -1.78.
Earnings Quality Score of 35.8/100, with a cash conversion score of 0.0/100, suggests significant discrepancies between earnings and cash flows.

Positive Signals

The DSRI of 0.5802 indicates a lower rate of receivables growth relative to sales, which could suggest better inventory management.

Ownership Risk

The top shareholders include significant institutional ownership (22.7% by Thành Thành Công), which may provide some stability, but the high concentration of ownership among a few entities raises concerns about governance and potential conflicts of interest.

Recommendation

Investors should approach SCR with caution, considering the elevated risk of earnings manipulation and poor cash flow metrics. It may be prudent to monitor upcoming quarterly reports closely for improvements in cash conversion and overall earnings quality.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

6/9

Neutral

Z-Score

0.78

Distress Zone

Sharpe

0.22

Positive

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

+25.4%

Volatility

36.2%

Max Drawdown

-35.6%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

38.87P/E

P/B0.56

P/S2.44

ROE1.5%

ROA0.6%

EPS177.27

BVPS12284.47

Gross Margin33.3%

Net Margin6.3%

D/E1.41

Current Ratio2.11

Rev Growth51.8%

Profit Growth2499.2%

EV/EBITDA27.60

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

430.6M

Charter Capital

4306.0B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Bất động sản

Industry (ICB L3)

Bất động sản

Sub-industry

Bất động sản

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for SCR — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư Thành Thành Công

Inst

22.7%

97.7 trieu

Đặng Hồng Anh

Indiv

10.1%

34.3 trieu

Công ty Cổ Phần Global Mind Việt Nam

Inst

8.9%

21.7 trieu

Trương Thị Ngọc Hiền

Indiv

5.8%

24.8 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Thương Mại Thành Thành Công

Inst

4.8%

16.3 trieu

Công ty Cổ Phần Xuất Nhập Khẩu Bến Tre

Inst

4.2%

14.3 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Khu Công Nghiệp Thành Thành Công

Inst

2.0%

8.4 trieu

Bùi Tiến Thắng

Indiv

0.2%

911.774

Lâm Minh Châu

Indiv

0.2%

737.783

Board & Management

Nguyễn Thị Thanh Thảo

Kế toán trưởng

Trần Yến Duyên

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Phạm Thị Khuê

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Huỳnh Sơn Trung

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Vũ Quốc Thái

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin

Trần Diệp Phượng Nhi

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Đỗ Ngọc Giang

Trưởng Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ

Nguyễn Thùy Vân

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Võ Quốc Khánh

Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Thành Chương

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Hoàng Mạnh Tiến

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Hồ Thị Vy

Giám đốc Tài chính

Đỗ Diệu Linh

Người phụ trách quản trị công ty

Top connections

DCV51.0%VNG4 links SBT3 links GEG4 links VGL21.4%SBS16.0%NAS10.7%DCT10.3%SPM7.6%SDK6.9%JOS6.4%LDP5.8%

Computed 12/04/2026