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Cyclicals sector

SDK

Cyclicals
Công ty Cổ phần Cơ khí Luyện Kim
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Công nghiệp nặngCT
14.800
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
28.782
Current
14.800
Gap
+94.5%
ModelEV EBITDA MIDCYCLE

Valuation Breakdown

CTHàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệpCyclical
Classified as cyclical because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the cyclical group
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA17.36B
Fair EV/EBITDA5.5x
Years of data7
2
Valuation
Mid-Cycle EBITDA
17.36B
x
Fair EV/EBITDA
5.5x
-
Net Debt
5.03B
=
Equity Value
28.782
Years of data7

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — SDK

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

51
Fair
Accrual Quality
30
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
27
Margin Stability
22
Revenue Quality
40

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-3.60
Low Risk
DSRI
0.763
GMI
1.260
AQI
1.000
SGI
0.875
DEPI
0.951
SGAI
0.998
TATA
-0.214
LVGI
0.759

SDK exhibits a concerning Beneish M-Score of -3.599, indicating a low likelihood of earnings manipulation. However, the earnings quality metrics reveal significant weaknesses, particularly in accruals and receivables, which could point to potential financial distress.

Red Flags
  • Earnings Quality Score of 50.5/100, with a notably low eq_accrual of 29.6/100, suggesting potential issues with earnings sustainability.
  • Receivables score at 27.2/100 indicates poor management of receivables, which could lead to cash flow problems.
Positive Signals
  • Cash conversion score of 100.0/100 indicates strong cash flow generation relative to earnings, which is a positive sign for liquidity.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with the top shareholder, Tổng Công ty Thép Việt Nam, holding 45%. This could pose risks related to governance and decision-making, particularly if interests diverge from minority shareholders.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor SDK's earnings quality and cash flow management. It may be prudent to adopt a cautious approach, considering the elevated risk signals, while keeping an eye on potential improvements in operational metrics.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
5/9
Neutral
Z-Score
3.76
Safe Zone
Sharpe
-0.11
Negative
Composite
57
Fair
Price Risk
Momentum
+5.7%
Volatility
93.1%
Max Drawdown
-40.1%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
40.25P/E
P/B1.03
P/S0.28
ROE2.6%
ROA1.3%
EPS383.13
BVPS14943.37
Gross Margin13.9%
Net Margin0.7%
D/E0.70
Current Ratio1.93
Rev Growth-12.3%
Profit Growth-78.9%
EV/EBITDA10.70
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
3.1M
Charter Capital
31.2B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
Industry (ICB L3)
Công nghiệp nặng
Sub-industry
Máy công nghiệp
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for SDK — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Tổng Công ty Thép Việt Nam
Inst
45.0%
1.4 trieu
Nguyễn Thái Thiện
Indiv
22.0%
686.400
Trần Phước Dũng
Indiv
8.3%
260.360
Trần Văn Ngọc
Indiv
6.9%
180.264
Công ty Cổ phần Bảo hiểm Viễn Đông
Inst
6.9%
180.263
Nguyễn Xuân Thu
Indiv
6.6%
170.442
Bùi Thị Lan Phương
Indiv
5.4%
139.500
Nguyễn Ngô Long
Indiv
4.2%
110.000
Ngô Thế Hiển
Indiv
2.5%
78.480
Vũ Văn Hiến
Indiv
0.9%
22.100
Nguyễn Thái Sơn
Indiv
0.8%
24.000
Phạm Văn Tốn
Indiv
0.5%
13.300
Đỗ Xuân Quang
Indiv
0.1%
2.800
Board & Management
Nguyễn Thái Thiện22.0%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Trần Phước Dũng8.3%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Ngô Thế Hiển2.5%
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Vũ Văn Hiến0.9%
Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Mai Văn Thanh
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Hà Thị Thu Hiền
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Xuân Sơn
Tổng Giám đốc/Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Phạm Thụy Hoàng Yến
Người phụ trách quản trị công ty
Đoàn Thị Thủy
Kế toán trưởng
Nguyễn Minh Tính
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Phạm Mạnh Cường
Phụ trách Công bố thông tin
Computed 12/04/2026
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