VGL
CyclicalsValuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Valuation Track Record
Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — VGL
Earnings Quality
Fiscal year 2024
Financial Forensics
Beneish M-Score · 2024
VGL exhibits several concerning indicators of potential earnings manipulation, as evidenced by a Beneish M-Score of -2.2308, which is below the manipulation threshold of -1.78. The company's earnings quality score of 43.3/100, particularly low cash conversion and receivables metrics, further raise red flags regarding the reliability of reported earnings.
- Beneish M-Score of -2.2308 indicates potential earnings manipulation, as it is below the threshold of -1.78.
- Earnings quality score of 43.3/100, with cash conversion at 33.7/100 and receivables at 6.6/100, suggests poor earnings quality and potential overstatement of revenue.
- The company has a strong margin score of 100.0/100, indicating effective cost management relative to revenues.
The ownership structure shows significant concentration, with Tổng Công ty Thép Việt Nam holding 51.0%, which may lead to conflicts of interest and reduced oversight. This concentration could pose risks if the interests of minority shareholders are not adequately represented.
Investors should approach VGL with caution due to the elevated risk of earnings manipulation and poor earnings quality metrics. It is advisable to monitor future earnings reports closely and consider diversifying investments to mitigate exposure.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
Company Overview
// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK
> mapping common ownership for VGL — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate