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Utilities sector

GEG

Utilities
Công ty Cổ phần Điện Gia Lai
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt/Sản xuất & Phân phối ĐiệnCT
16.950
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
16.028
Current
16.950
Gap
-5.4%
ModelDDM 3STAGE

Valuation Breakdown

CTĐiện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốtUtility
Classified as utility because ICB sector "Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt" maps to the utility group
Model3-Stage DDM
Value = Sum of [DPS x (1+g)^t / (1+Ke)^t] + Terminal Dividend / (Ke - g_terminal)

The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+). As John D. Rockefeller said: "The only thing that gives me pleasure is to see my dividends coming in."

1
Cost of Equity (Ke)
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.600
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
8.70%
2
Growth Estimate
Sector Default2.00%
3
Model Inputs
DPS source:Actual dividends
DPS850
Payout ratio110.7%
4
Valuation
Dividends Per Share
850
Base Growth
2.00%
Cost of Equity
8.70%
Terminal Growth
3.50%
DDM Value
16.028
Value Decomposition
26%
74%
Explicit period (26%)Terminal value (74%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — GEG

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

58
Fair
Accrual Quality
100
Cash Conversion
79
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
12

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-1.87
Moderate
DSRI
1.205
GMI
0.807
AQI
1.644
SGI
1.290
DEPI
0.949
SGAI
1.145
TATA
0.001
LVGI
0.919

GEG exhibits signs of potential earnings manipulation with a Beneish M-Score of -1.8743, which is below the threshold of -1.78. While the earnings quality score of 58.1 suggests reasonable performance, the low revenue quality score of 12.3 indicates significant concerns regarding revenue recognition practices.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of -1.8743 indicates potential earnings manipulation, as it is below the threshold of -1.78.
  • Revenue quality score of 12.3/100 suggests significant issues with revenue recognition.
Positive Signals
  • High accrual quality score of 99.6/100 indicates strong earnings management practices.
  • Institutional ownership is substantial, with Jera Asia Vietnam Holdings and Avh Pte.ltd each holding 35.1%, suggesting confidence from significant investors.
Ownership Risk

The concentrated ownership structure, with the top three shareholders holding over 87% of shares, may pose risks related to governance and decision-making transparency.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor GEG's financial reporting and consider a cautious approach due to the elevated risk of earnings manipulation, while also leveraging the strong institutional backing as a potential stabilizing factor.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
7/9
Strong
Z-Score
0.93
Distress Zone
Sharpe
0.46
Positive
Composite
52
Fair
Price Risk
Momentum
+8.4%
Volatility
34.5%
Max Drawdown
-22.5%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
8.60P/E
P/B1.22
P/S2.01
ROE15.0%
ROA4.6%
EPS1692.73
BVPS11968.64
Gross Margin57.2%
Net Margin23.4%
D/E1.33
Current Ratio2.03
Rev Growth29.0%
Profit Growth511.5%
EV/EBITDA6.18
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
358.3M
Charter Capital
4148.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
Industry (ICB L3)
Sản xuất & Phân phối Điện
Sub-industry
Sản xuất & Phân phối Điện
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for GEG — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Jera Asia Vietnam Holdings Pte. Ltd.
Inst
35.1%
125.8 trieu
Avh Pte.ltd
Inst
35.1%
113.0 trieu
Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư Thành Thành Công
Inst
16.8%
60.2 trieu
International Finance Corporation
Inst
13.7%
0
DEG – Deutsche Investitions - Und Entwicklungsgesellschaft MBH
Inst
13.4%
56.5 trieu
Công ty Cổ phần Thành Thành Công - Biên Hòa
Inst
11.0%
39.4 trieu
Công ty Cổ Phần Xuất Nhập Khẩu Bến Tre
Inst
6.3%
22.7 trieu
Ngân hàng Thương mại Cổ phần Sài Gòn Thương Tín
Inst
5.3%
4.0 trieu
Công ty Cổ phần Hàng tiêu dùng Biên Hòa
Inst
5.3%
18.9 trieu
Công ty Cổ phần Khu Công Nghiệp Thành Thành Công
Inst
3.8%
13.7 trieu
CÔNG TY TNHH MTV THÀNH THÀNH CÔNG GIA LAI
Inst
2.9%
9.3 trieu
Công ty Cổ phần Nông nghiệp AgriS Gia Lai
Inst
2.9%
9.3 trieu
Phạm Ngọc Thanh Mai
Indiv
0.4%
715.000
Huỳnh Bích Ngọc
Indiv
0.3%
1.3 trieu
Đặng Huỳnh Ức My
Indiv
0.2%
977.596
Hà Nguyên Hoàng
Indiv
0.2%
416.200
Nguyễn Thái Hà
Indiv
0.1%
532.324
Đặng Huỳnh Anh Tuấn
Indiv
0.1%
471.912
Andrew Mark Affleck
Indiv
0.1%
200.000
Board & Management
Nguyễn Thái Hà0.1%
Tổng Giám đốc
Đặng Huỳnh Anh Tuấn0.1%
Thành viên Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Lê Thanh Vinh
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Phong Phú
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Phạm Thị Khuê
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập
Nguyễn Thùy Vân
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập/Trưởng Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ
Phạm Thành Tuấn Anh
Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Người phụ trách quản trị công ty
Trần Thị Hồng Thắm
Kế toán trưởng/Giám đốc Tài chính
Nguyễn Thế Vinh
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Deepak Chand Khanna
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Thành viên Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ
TÂN XUÂN HIẾN
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Computed 12/04/2026
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All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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