SPM

Consumer

Công ty Cổ phần S.P.M

Y tế/Dược phẩmCT

9.100

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

56.795

Current

9.100

Gap

+500.0%

ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Y tế→Consumer

Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Y tế" maps to the consumer group

ModelFCF-Based DCF

Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

0.800

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

10.10%

E/(D+E)

79.67%

Kd(1-t)

5.94%

D/(D+E)

20.33%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

Sector Default4.00%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Base FCF→49.87B

Projection years→10

Valuation

Base FCF

49.87B

Growth Rate

4.00%

WACC

10.00%

Terminal Growth

4.00%

DCF Value

56.795

Value Decomposition

43%

57%

Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — SPM

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Fair

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-3.03

Low Risk

DSRI

1.108

GMI

0.850

AQI

0.496

SGI

0.853

DEPI

0.817

SGAI

1.076

TATA

-0.062

LVGI

0.715

SPM exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -3.0259, indicating a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is well below the threshold of -1.78. However, the Earnings Quality Score of 60.1/100 reveals weaknesses in receivables and margins, suggesting potential issues in revenue recognition and profitability.

Red Flags

Receivables quality is extremely low at 5.0/100, indicating potential issues with revenue collection.
Earnings quality margin score is only 44.1/100, suggesting that profitability may not be sustainable.

Positive Signals

Beneish M-Score of -3.0259 indicates a low risk of earnings manipulation.
Cash conversion score is perfect at 100.0/100, indicating strong cash flow relative to earnings.

Ownership Risk

The top two shareholders, Đào Hữu Hoàng and Đào Hữu Hoàng Vũ, control a combined 57.8% of the company, which presents a risk of concentrated ownership and potential governance issues.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor receivables and margin performance while considering the strong cash conversion as a positive indicator. Diversifying ownership could mitigate governance risks.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

7/9

Strong

Z-Score

2.49

Grey Zone

Sharpe

-0.60

Negative

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

-15.7%

Volatility

42.8%

Max Drawdown

-26.1%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

24.24P/E

P/B0.16

P/S0.50

ROE0.7%

ROA0.5%

EPS375.40

BVPS57294.67

Gross Margin24.0%

Net Margin2.1%

D/E0.17

Current Ratio6.78

Rev Growth-13.3%

Profit Growth13.8%

EV/EBITDA5.22

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

14.0M

Charter Capital

140.0B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Y tế

Industry (ICB L3)

Dược phẩm

Sub-industry

Dược phẩm

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for SPM — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Đào Hữu Hoàng

Indiv

45.0%

6.2 trieu

Đào Hữu Hoàng Vũ

Indiv

12.8%

1.8 trieu

Ngân hàng Thương mại Cổ phần Sài Gòn Thương Tín

Inst

7.6%

1.0 trieu

Đỗ Thị Mai

Indiv

7.1%

1.0 trieu

Vũ Thanh Hiếu

Indiv

5.9%

832.290

Hồ Mộng Tiên

Indiv

5.0%

683.670

Đào Hữu Khôi

Indiv

3.0%

409.935

amersham industries limited

Inst

2.9%

400.650

Đào Thị Ngọc Ánh

Indiv

2.5%

354.540

Nguyễn Thị Quỳnh Hương

Indiv

1.8%

245.845

Văn Tất Chiến

Indiv

0.2%

30.000

Board & Management

Đào Hữu Hoàng45.0%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Đỗ Thị Mai7.1%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Đào Hữu Khôi3.0%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Văn Tất Chiến0.2%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Bùi Công Sơn

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Võ Thành Nhân

Kế toán trưởng

Dương Nguyễn Trường Huy

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Huỳnh Phú Hải

Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Ôn Ngọc Lan

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Ngô Quốc Dũng

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Thế Kỷ

Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Top connections

DCV51.0%SBS16.0%NAS10.7%JOS7.6%COM7.6%GEG7.6%HMC7.6%VTO2 links HLA7.6%SWC7.6%LSS7.6%SCR7.6%

Computed 12/04/2026