SHC

Construction

Công ty Cổ phần Hàng hải Sài Gòn

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Vận tảiCT

10.500

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

20.600

Current

10.500

Gap

+96.2%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

86.05%

Kd(1-t)

6.32%

D/(D+E)

13.95%

WACC

11.38%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend2.42%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

20.289

50%DCF Value

20.910

Blended Intrinsic

20.600

Value Decomposition

40%

60%

Explicit period (40%)Terminal value (60%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — SHC

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Good

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-1.30

High Risk

DSRI

2.180

GMI

0.827

AQI

1.102

SGI

1.210

DEPI

1.125

SGAI

0.890

TATA

-0.004

LVGI

1.162

The Beneish M-Score of -1.2985 indicates that SHC is not likely to be manipulating earnings, as it is below the threshold of -1.78. However, the high DSRI of 2.1798 suggests potential issues with inventory management, which could signal overstatement of revenue.

Red Flags

DSRI of 2.1798 indicates significant inventory growth relative to sales, suggesting potential revenue recognition issues.
The low eq_margin score of 65.4/100 indicates that profit margins may not be sustainable, raising concerns about long-term profitability.

Positive Signals

Earnings Quality Score of 75.8/100 reflects strong overall earnings quality, particularly with an eq_accrual score of 98.2/100, indicating effective accrual management.
The high eq_receivables score of 100.0/100 suggests that receivables are being managed effectively, which is a positive sign for cash flow.

Ownership Risk

The concentrated ownership structure with top shareholders holding over 70% of shares raises potential governance risks, as decisions may favor the interests of a few individuals over minority shareholders.

Recommendation

Investors should monitor inventory levels closely and assess the sustainability of profit margins, while also considering the implications of concentrated ownership on corporate governance.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

6/9

Neutral

Z-Score

3.98

Safe Zone

Sharpe

-0.00

Negative

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

+1.7%

Volatility

96.1%

Max Drawdown

-37.4%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

5.46P/E

P/B0.52

P/S0.43

ROE9.9%

ROA8.4%

EPS1923.58

BVPS20108.18

Gross Margin13.1%

Net Margin8.0%

D/E0.19

Current Ratio4.30

Rev Growth21.0%

Profit Growth69.4%

EV/EBITDA1.72

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

4.3M

Charter Capital

43.1B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp

Industry (ICB L3)

Vận tải

Sub-industry

Vận tải Thủy

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for SHC — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Nguyễn Đại Thắng

Indiv

15.2%

654.950

Nguyễn Minh Thắng

Indiv

14.7%

636.280

Nguyễn Xuân Phú

Indiv

13.9%

600.000

nguyen-thi-van-anh

Indiv

11.2%

486.300

Nguyễn Đình Hiệu

Indiv

11.2%

482.190

Tổng Công ty Hàng hải Việt Nam

Inst

10.2%

437.400

nguyen-thi-hang

Indiv

10.0%

437.400

Kamm Investment Holdings, Inc

Inst

4.4%

188.750

Công ty TNHH Đầu Tư & Tm Thiên Hải

Inst

1.0%

42.660

Bạch Thái Dũng

Indiv

0.5%

19.104

Nguyễn Thị Phú Lai

Indiv

0.4%

17.575

Đặng Ngọc Thụy

Indiv

0.1%

5.900

Nguyễn Hổ

Indiv

0.1%

4.900

Board & Management

Nguyễn Minh Thắng14.7%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Xuân Phú13.9%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Thị Vân Anh11.2%

Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Đình Hiệu11.2%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Thị Hằng10.0%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Bạch Thái Dũng0.5%

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Đoàn Thị Hảo

Kế toán trưởng

Nguyễn Xuân Cường

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Vĩnh Hà

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Top connections

CCT99.0%PHP92.6%CCR80.9%QNP75.0%CDN75.0%SGP65.5%VLG56.7%CPI56.6%VSA51.0%NAP51.0%VNA51.0%VOS51.0%

Computed 12/04/2026