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Construction sector

RAT

Construction
Công ty Cổ phần Vận tải và Thương mại Đường sắt
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Vận tảiCT
20.400
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
6.166
Current
20.400
Gap
-69.8%
ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CTHàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệpConstruction
Classified as construction because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the construction group
ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend
Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Distressed Valuation
Negative Enterprise Value
BVPS
12.332
x
Discount
50%
=
Floor Value
12.332

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — RAT

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2024

41
Weak
Accrual Quality
82
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2024

-2.14
Moderate
DSRI
0.999
GMI
0.846
AQI
0.535
SGI
1.401
DEPI
1.107
SGAI
0.775
TATA
0.044
LVGI
1.014

The Beneish M-Score of -2.1395 indicates a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is below the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality score of 40.6/100, particularly the zero scores in cash conversion and revenue quality, raises concerns about the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags
  • Earnings Quality Score of 40.6/100 indicates significant issues with cash conversion (0.0/100) and revenue quality (0.0/100), suggesting potential overstatement of earnings.
Positive Signals
  • Beneish M-Score of -2.1395 is below the manipulation threshold, suggesting a lower risk of earnings manipulation.
Ownership Risk

The top shareholders include several individuals with significant stakes, which may lead to concentrated decision-making and potential governance risks. The largest shareholder holds 19.3%, indicating a lack of majority control.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor cash flow and revenue recognition practices, given the low earnings quality score. It may be prudent to adopt a cautious approach until improvements in cash conversion and revenue quality are observed.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
6/9
Neutral
Z-Score
1.84
Grey Zone
Sharpe
0.20
Positive
Composite
40
Weak
Price Risk
Momentum
+30.7%
Volatility
53.0%
Max Drawdown
-27.4%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2024
25.57P/E
P/B1.44
P/S0.13
ROE6.2%
ROA1.1%
EPS740.29
BVPS12331.91
Gross Margin8.8%
Net Margin0.6%
D/E4.68
Current Ratio0.78
Rev Growth40.1%
Profit Growth148.0%
EV/EBITDA6.87
Div Yield3.4%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
5.9M
Charter Capital
59.2B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
Industry (ICB L3)
Vận tải
Sub-industry
Dịch vụ vận tải
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for RAT — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Phạm Thị Minh Giang
Indiv
19.3%
1.1 trieu
Tổng Công ty Đường sắt Việt Nam
Inst
18.4%
1.1 trieu
Trần Thế Hưng
Indiv
16.4%
972.749
Trần Thị Thu Nga
Indiv
10.3%
612.083
Đỗ Khánh Dư
Indiv
7.6%
452.980
Nguyễn Thị Kim Anh
Indiv
6.5%
385.300
Nguyễn Tuấn Quang
Indiv
5.1%
300.000
Nguyễn Tuấn Vinh
Indiv
4.6%
238.842
Nguyễn Chính Nam
Indiv
4.3%
221.880
Trần Công Nghĩa
Indiv
3.2%
188.349
Phạm Anh Tuấn
Indiv
2.8%
145.289
nguyen-hoang-thanh
Indiv
0.5%
27.687
Board & Management
Trần Thế Hùng16.4%
Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Trần Thị Thu Nga10.3%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Đỗ Khánh Dư7.6%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Hoàng Thanh0.5%
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Trường Giang
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Phạm Thị Quyên
Người phụ trách quản trị công ty/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Kế toán trưởng
Mai Hoàng Long
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Diệp Anh Tuấn
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Trần Thị Xuân
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Computed 12/04/2026
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