STG

Construction

Công ty Cổ phần Kho Vận Miền Nam

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Vận tảiCT

34.900

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

30.776

Current

34.900

Gap

-11.8%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

78.60%

Kd(1-t)

6.06%

D/(D+E)

21.40%

WACC

10.89%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend3.58%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

32.275

50%DCF Value

29.278

Blended Intrinsic

30.776

Value Decomposition

38%

62%

Explicit period (38%)Terminal value (62%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — STG

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Fair

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.22

Moderate

DSRI

1.186

GMI

0.797

AQI

1.230

SGI

1.055

DEPI

0.932

SGAI

1.009

TATA

0.029

LVGI

1.216

The Beneish M-Score of -2.2191 indicates a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is below the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality score of 57.2 suggests moderate concerns regarding the sustainability of earnings, particularly with a concerning revenue quality score of 0.0.

Red Flags

Earnings quality score of 57.2 indicates potential issues with earnings sustainability.
Revenue quality score of 0.0 suggests that revenue recognition may not be reliable.

Positive Signals

Beneish M-Score of -2.2191 indicates a low likelihood of earnings manipulation.
High accrual quality score of 88.5 suggests strong earnings management practices.

Ownership Risk

The concentrated ownership structure, with 69.3% held by ITL Group, may pose risks related to governance and decision-making, potentially limiting minority shareholder influence.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor earnings quality metrics and consider engaging with management for clarity on revenue recognition practices, while remaining cautious due to the concentrated ownership structure.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

5/9

Neutral

Z-Score

4.36

Safe Zone

Sharpe

-0.13

Negative

Composite

Weak

Price Risk

Momentum

-20.2%

Volatility

80.5%

Max Drawdown

-33.4%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

13.21P/E

P/B1.52

P/S1.50

ROE12.2%

ROA8.8%

EPS2989.90

BVPS26027.46

Gross Margin20.1%

Net Margin11.3%

D/E0.35

Current Ratio2.42

Rev Growth5.5%

Profit Growth52.6%

EV/EBITDA9.05

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

98.3M

Charter Capital

982.5B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp

Industry (ICB L3)

Vận tải

Sub-industry

Kho bãi, hậu cần và bảo dưỡng

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for STG — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Công ty Cổ phần Tập đoàn ITL

Inst

69.3%

68.1 trieu

Psa Cargo Solutions Vietnam Investments Pte. Ltd.

Inst

24.9%

24.5 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Chứng khoán VIX

Inst

4.8%

4.1 trieu

Công ty TNHH Đà Lạt Safari

Inst

4.7%

4.0 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư Sài Gòn Thương Tín

Inst

4.6%

386.619

Công ty TNHH Quản lý Quỹ Bảo Việt

Inst

4.2%

3.6 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần SCI

Inst

3.2%

890.948

Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư ICAPITAL

Inst

2.9%

811.420

nguyen-thi-van

Indiv

0.7%

700.000

Võ Phúc Nguyên

Indiv

0.4%

384.428

Trịnh Thị Hương

Indiv

0.4%

383.500

Hoàng Quyến

Indiv

0.1%

9.267

Board & Management

Đặng Vũ Thành

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc

Trần Thị Thanh Bình

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Ngô Thị Thanh Thủy

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Đặng Doãn Kiên

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Trần Tuấn Anh

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Hồ Sĩ Tuấn

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin

Nguyễn Hoàng Giang

Kế toán trưởng/Trưởng phòng Tài chính - Kế toán

Đỗ Lê Hùng

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Trần Thị Cẩm Tú

Người phụ trách quản trị công ty

Nguyễn Thị Oanh

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Quốc Thúc

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Top connections

SCI55.5%VIT18.4%HJS3 links TDB14.1%XHC11.4%SGD7.4%KDM6.7%SBS5.0%MHC2 links PC15.0%PCT4.8%EIB4.8%

Computed 12/04/2026