HJS

Utilities

Công ty Cổ phần Thủy điện Nậm Mu

Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt/Sản xuất & Phân phối ĐiệnCT

27.500

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

37.433

Current

27.500

Gap

+36.1%

ModelDDM 3STAGE

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt→Utility

Classified as utility because ICB sector "Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt" maps to the utility group

Model3-Stage DDM

Value = Sum of [DPS x (1+g)^t / (1+Ke)^t] + Terminal Dividend / (Ke - g_terminal)

The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+). As John D. Rockefeller said: "The only thing that gives me pleasure is to see my dividends coming in."

Cost of Equity (Ke)

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

0.600

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

8.70%

Growth Estimate

fundamental equity blend1.79%

Model Inputs

DPS source:Actual dividends

DPS→2.000

Payout ratio→89.8%

Valuation

Dividends Per Share

2.000

Base Growth

1.79%

Cost of Equity

8.70%

Terminal Growth

3.50%

DDM Value

37.433

Value Decomposition

26%

74%

Explicit period (26%)Terminal value (74%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — HJS

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Good

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

100

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.43

Moderate

DSRI

1.551

GMI

0.993

AQI

0.954

SGI

0.819

DEPI

0.891

SGAI

1.263

TATA

-0.045

LVGI

1.020

HJS exhibits several concerning indicators that suggest potential earnings manipulation, particularly with a Beneish M-Score of -2.4322, which is below the manipulation threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality score of 70.3 indicates reasonable overall earnings quality, although specific metrics like receivables raise concerns.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of -2.4322 indicates potential earnings manipulation, significantly below the threshold of -1.78.
Receivables quality score of 12.3/100 suggests significant issues with revenue recognition and collection efficiency.

Positive Signals

Earnings quality score of 70.3/100 indicates a generally strong earnings profile, particularly with cash conversion at 100.0/100.
Strong institutional ownership with top shareholders holding a combined 51.0% and 25.0%, which may provide stability.

Ownership Risk

The high concentration of institutional ownership (96.3% combined) suggests a stable governance structure, but it may also lead to potential conflicts of interest or lack of transparency in decision-making.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor HJS for signs of earnings manipulation and consider a cautious approach, focusing on improving receivables management and transparency in financial reporting.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

6/9

Neutral

Z-Score

9.51

Safe Zone

Sharpe

-0.16

Negative

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

-9.3%

Volatility

49.0%

Max Drawdown

-19.5%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

14.09P/E

P/B1.83

P/S4.56

ROE12.8%

ROA10.9%

EPS1880.84

BVPS14516.27

Gross Margin44.1%

Net Margin32.4%

D/E0.13

Current Ratio4.11

Rev Growth-18.1%

Profit Growth-16.2%

EV/EBITDA8.04

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

21.0M

Charter Capital

210.0B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt

Industry (ICB L3)

Sản xuất & Phân phối Điện

Sub-industry

Sản xuất & Phân phối Điện

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for HJS — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Công ty Cổ phần Sông Đà 9

Inst

51.0%

10.7 trieu

Công ty TNHH Sản xuất kinh doanh Xuất nhập khẩu Bình Minh

Inst

25.0%

3.8 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư ICAPITAL

Inst

18.3%

3.8 trieu

Công ty Cổ Phần Dây Điện Và Phích Cắm Trần Phú

Inst

17.8%

3.7 trieu

Trịnh Thị Thúy

Indiv

5.0%

1.0 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Chứng khoán VIX

Inst

4.8%

1.0 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Hạ tầng GELEX

Inst

4.0%

840.962

Huỳnh Quang Hiếu

Indiv

0.9%

192.000

Hà Ngọc Phiếm

Indiv

0.5%

115.000

Bùi Vi Dương

Indiv

0.2%

46.620

Đoàn Hùng Sơn

Indiv

0.2%

31.250

Board & Management

Bùi Trọng Cẩn

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Giám đốc

Nguyễn Đức Lương

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Trần Thế Quang

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Trần Thị Len

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Viết Kỳ

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Trần Xuân Du

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Kế toán trưởng

Trần Thị Chung

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Vũ Ngọc Toàn

Phó Giám đốc

Trần Ngọc Anh

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Đặng Thị Đoan Trang

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Top connections

PXL2 links VGC2 links VCG25.0%VIT18.4%STG3 links GEX2 links TDB14.1%XHC11.4%PC15.0%MHC4.8%EIB4.8%SD34.8%

Computed 12/04/2026