KDM

Construction

Công ty Cổ phần Tập đoàn GCL

Xây dựng và Vật liệuCT

27.900

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Very Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

2.561

Current

27.900

Gap

-90.8%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Xây dựng và Vật liệu→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Xây dựng và Vật liệu" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

98.79%

Kd(1-t)

6.41%

D/(D+E)

1.21%

WACC

12.13%

Growth Estimate

Sector Default3.00%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

2.289

50%DCF Value

2.832

Blended Intrinsic

2.561

Value Decomposition

43%

57%

Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — KDM

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Poor

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2017

-1.10

High Risk

DSRI

0.615

GMI

2.863

AQI

3.934

SGI

0.536

DEPI

0.668

SGAI

0.082

TATA

-0.063

LVGI

0.538

KDM exhibits a moderate risk profile with potential earnings manipulation suggested by its Beneish M-Score of -1.1045, which is above the manipulation threshold. However, the company shows strong cash conversion metrics, indicating some level of operational efficiency despite concerns over revenue recognition.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of -1.1045 indicates potential earnings manipulation, as it is above the threshold of -1.78.
Earnings Quality Score of 43.7/100 is relatively low, particularly with 0.0/100 in receivables, margin, and revenue metrics, suggesting significant concerns in revenue recognition.

Positive Signals

Strong cash conversion score of 100.0/100 indicates effective cash flow management.
Low SGI of 0.5360 suggests that sales growth is not overly aggressive compared to previous periods.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is fragmented with no single entity holding a controlling stake, which may reduce the risk of concentrated decision-making. However, the presence of multiple individual shareholders could lead to potential conflicts of interest.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor KDM's revenue recognition practices and consider conducting a deeper analysis into its financial reporting. Given the moderate risk, a cautious approach is recommended, possibly waiting for improved earnings quality metrics before making significant investments.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

2/9

Weak

Z-Score

198.71

Safe Zone

Sharpe

0.86

Positive

Composite

Weak

Price Risk

Momentum

+43.5%

Volatility

66.5%

Max Drawdown

-36.8%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

331.42P/E

P/B2.92

P/S15.44

ROE0.9%

ROA0.9%

EPS90.52

BVPS10265.21

Gross Margin2.1%

Net Margin4.7%

D/E0.01

Current Ratio112.39

Rev Growth-58.6%

Profit Growth-47.0%

EV/EBITDA-311.26

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

7.6M

Charter Capital

76.0B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Xây dựng và Vật liệu

Industry (ICB L3)

Xây dựng và Vật liệu

Sub-industry

Xây dựng

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for KDM — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

nguyen-dinh-hung

Indiv

10.1%

717.700

Công ty Cổ phần Đầu Tư Nmvt

Inst

9.7%

1.4 trieu

nguyen-thi-van

Indiv

6.7%

510.624

nguyen-thi-mai

Indiv

6.3%

479.800

Lê Thị Bích Lan

Indiv

4.8%

340.900

Đỗ Yến Vy

Indiv

4.7%

336.400

Trần Thị Mến

Indiv

4.7%

330.500

Trịnh Thị Chung

Indiv

4.2%

300.000

Lê Thị Hạnh Nguyên

Indiv

3.5%

250.000

Trịnh Bá Toàn

Indiv

3.2%

229.700

Công ty Cổ phần Trường Tiền Holdings

Inst

3.2%

230.000

Mai Lệ Huyền

Indiv

3.2%

229.100

Nguyễn Văn Hưng

Indiv

3.2%

225.000

Nguyễn Văn Hiệp

Indiv

3.2%

225.000

Trần Ngọc Huy

Indiv

2.8%

201.000

Lại Xuân Hưởng

Indiv

2.8%

199.900

Hoàng Xuân Hòa

Indiv

2.7%

185.500

Lã Văn Châm

Indiv

2.6%

180.000

Lã Văn Quyến

Indiv

2.6%

180.000

Hoàng Lê Hoàng

Indiv

2.5%

176.000

Chu Văn Dũng

Indiv

1.7%

127.009

nguyen-cong-hoan

Indiv

1.4%

100.000

Tạ Quốc Toàn

Indiv

0.7%

50.000

Nguyễn Thị Thanh Hương

Indiv

0.7%

50.000

Lại Mai Hương

Indiv

0.7%

50.000

Vũ Minh Thu

Indiv

0.7%

50.000

Board & Management

Lê Thị Hạnh Nguyên3.5%

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Quang Huy

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Thanh Cường

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Thị Kiều Anh

Kế toán trưởng

Bùi Thị Hiền Hậu

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin

Đỗ Thị Hà

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc

Trần Thị Ngân Hà

Kế toán trưởng

Top connections

SFI50.7%LKW16.8%QBS13.3%DCS10.1%TTE10.1%SGN10.1%KIP10.1%C926.7%VNX6.7%STG6.7%PEN6.7%HAH6.7%

Computed 12/04/2026