TDB

Utilities

Công ty Cổ phần Thủy điện Định Bình

Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt/Sản xuất & Phân phối ĐiệnCT

40.900

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

72.075

Current

40.900

Gap

+76.2%

ModelDDM 3STAGE

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt→Utility

Classified as utility because ICB sector "Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt" maps to the utility group

Model3-Stage DDM

Value = Sum of [DPS x (1+g)^t / (1+Ke)^t] + Terminal Dividend / (Ke - g_terminal)

The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+). As John D. Rockefeller said: "The only thing that gives me pleasure is to see my dividends coming in."

Cost of Equity (Ke)

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

0.600

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

8.70%

Growth Estimate

fundamental equity blend4.45%

Model Inputs

DPS source:Actual dividends

DPS→3.500

Payout ratio→83.9%

Valuation

Dividends Per Share

3.500

Base Growth

4.45%

Cost of Equity

8.70%

Terminal Growth

3.50%

DDM Value

72.075

Value Decomposition

25%

75%

Explicit period (25%)Terminal value (75%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — TDB

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Good

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

100

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2019

-2.27

Moderate

DSRI

1.515

GMI

0.982

AQI

0.919

SGI

0.987

DEPI

0.000

SGAI

0.924

TATA

-0.040

LVGI

0.752

TDB exhibits several concerning indicators, particularly with a Beneish M-Score of -2.2685, which suggests a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation. However, the earnings quality score of 61.4 indicates potential issues with revenue recognition and receivables management, warranting caution.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of -2.2685, indicating potential earnings manipulation risk as it is below the threshold of -1.78.
Earnings quality metrics show a low receivables score of 29.5/100, suggesting potential issues with revenue collection.
Revenue quality score of 0.0/100 indicates a complete lack of reliability in revenue recognition.

Positive Signals

Strong cash conversion score of 93.6/100, indicating effective cash flow management.
High earnings quality margin score of 100.0/100, reflecting strong profitability on a margin basis.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is concentrated with institutional investors holding 52.3%, which may provide stability but also raises concerns about potential governance issues and alignment with minority shareholders.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor TDB's revenue recognition practices and receivables management. A cautious approach is recommended, considering the elevated risk indicators, while also leveraging the strong cash flow metrics.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

5/9

Neutral

Z-Score

10.22

Safe Zone

Sharpe

0.11

Positive

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

+6.7%

Volatility

24.6%

Max Drawdown

-14.9%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

9.27P/E

P/B3.62

P/S4.50

ROE39.3%

ROA31.6%

EPS4412.53

BVPS11288.23

Gross Margin63.4%

Net Margin48.5%

D/E0.27

Current Ratio3.33

Rev Growth11.9%

Profit Growth12.2%

EV/EBITDA6.94

Div Yield7.3%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

8.2M

Charter Capital

82.3B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt

Industry (ICB L3)

Sản xuất & Phân phối Điện

Sub-industry

Sản xuất & Phân phối Điện

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for TDB — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Tổng Công Ty Điện Lực Miền Trung

Inst

24.1%

2.0 trieu

Công ty TNHH Quản lý Quỹ Bảo Việt

Inst

14.1%

1.2 trieu

Tổng công ty Bảo Việt Nhân thọ

Inst

14.1%

1.2 trieu

Lê Thị Xuân Loan

Indiv

1.9%

160.000

Phạm Thị Thu Trang

Indiv

1.5%

127.000

Trần Xuân Toàn

Indiv

1.5%

121.150

Phạm Văn Nho

Indiv

1.3%

110.591

Đặng Ngọc Căn

Indiv

1.3%

109.095

Trương Đình Du

Indiv

1.2%

101.760

Nguyễn Văn Phú

Indiv

0.7%

57.700

nguyen-luong-am

Indiv

0.6%

50.955

Phan Thanh Tuấn

Indiv

0.5%

44.593

Huỳnh Ngọc Việt

Indiv

0.5%

40.000

Phan Thị Xuân Hương

Indiv

0.4%

36.018

Nguyễn Thị Nam Phương

Indiv

0.4%

33.700

Nguyễn Bình Sơn

Indiv

0.4%

30.001

thái văn thắng

Indiv

0.4%

29.250

Phạm Thị Trúc

Indiv

0.2%

20.000

Tăng Tấn Ngân

Indiv

0.2%

19.250

Tạ Thị Hòa

Indiv

0.2%

18.799

Huỳnh Ngọc Lê Anh

Indiv

0.2%

17.933

Đinh Châu Hiếu Thiện

Indiv

0.2%

15.850

Lê Thị Xuân Liên

Indiv

0.2%

15.000

Hoàng Lê Giang

Indiv

0.1%

11.000

Bùi Thị Hạnh

Indiv

0.1%

10.000

Nguyễn Thái Bình

Indiv

0.1%

8.500

Board & Management

Lê Thị Xuân Loan1.9%

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Trần Xuân Toàn1.5%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Giám đốc

Đặng Ngọc Căn1.3%

Phó Giám đốc

Trương Đình Du1.2%

Kế toán trưởng

Nguyễn Văn Phú0.7%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Thái Văn Thắng0.4%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Bùi Thị Hạnh0.1%

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Tăng Trần Nhân

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Thị Ánh Tuyền

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Tiến Hải

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Phan Thành Hiệp

Người phụ trách quản trị công ty

Top connections

PIC74.1%KHP53.4%SBA2 links DRL30.4%SEB24.1%CHP24.1%GHC24.1%AVC24.1%XHC14.1%SSG14.1%STG14.1%IJC14.1%

Computed 12/04/2026