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Consumer sector

VTJ

Consumer
Công ty Cổ phần Thương mại và Đầu tư VI NA TA BA
Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng/Thuốc láCT
3.800
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
925
Current
3.800
Gap
-75.7%
ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CTHàng cá nhân & Gia dụngConsumer
Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng" maps to the consumer group
ModelFCF-Based DCF
Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.800
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
10.10%
Ke
10.10%
x
E/(D+E)
92.74%
+
Kd(1-t)
7.79%
x
D/(D+E)
7.26%
=
WACC
10.00%
2
Growth Estimate
Sector Default4.00%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
Base FCF558.87M
Projection years10
4
Valuation
Base FCF
558.87M
Growth Rate
4.00%
WACC
10.00%
Terminal Growth
4.00%
DCF Value
925
Value Decomposition
43%
57%
Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — VTJ

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

99
Good
Accrual Quality
98
Cash Conversion
100

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2021

-3.23
Low Risk
DSRI
0.006
GMI
0.546
AQI
1.240
SGI
1.046
DEPI
2.756
SGAI
0.560
TATA
0.004
LVGI
1.094

VTJ exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -3.2298, significantly below the manipulation threshold, indicating a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation. However, the earnings quality score of 43.2/100, particularly low cash conversion and revenue metrics, raises concerns about the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags
  • Earnings Quality Score of 43.2/100, with cash conversion at 40.0/100 and revenue quality at 0.0/100, indicating potential issues in revenue recognition and cash flow sustainability.
  • Beneish M-Score of -3.2298, well below the manipulation threshold of -1.78, suggesting that while manipulation is unlikely, the company's financial health may still be questionable.
Positive Signals
  • DSRI of 0.0057 suggests that the company is not significantly increasing its receivables relative to sales, which is a positive indicator of revenue recognition practices.
  • High accrual score of 98.3/100 indicates that the company is effectively managing its accruals, which can be a sign of strong operational management.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is fragmented with the largest shareholder holding only 5.0%, which may lead to governance challenges and a lack of strategic direction. This could increase the risk of misalignment between management and minority shareholders.

Recommendation

Investors should approach VTJ with caution, focusing on improving cash conversion and revenue quality metrics. Continuous monitoring of earnings quality and governance practices is advised before making significant investment decisions.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
5/9
Neutral
Z-Score
3.24
Safe Zone
Sharpe
0.05
Positive
Composite
59
Fair
Price Risk
Momentum
+17.1%
Volatility
67.4%
Max Drawdown
-32.0%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
294.92P/E
P/B0.46
P/S4.97
ROE0.2%
ROA0.1%
EPS13.22
BVPS8528.99
Gross Margin1.6%
Net Margin1.7%
D/E0.08
Current Ratio5.88
Profit Growth-53.5%
EV/EBITDA-82.66
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
11.4M
Charter Capital
114.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng
Industry (ICB L3)
Thuốc lá
Sub-industry
Thuốc lá
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for VTJ — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Nguyễn Hoàng Dương
Indiv
5.0%
564.000
Đỗ Thanh Bình
Indiv
4.9%
557.000
Lê Thị Lệ Túy
Indiv
4.4%
505.300
Phạm Thị Hoa
Indiv
2.4%
276.300
Nguyễn Triết
Indiv
0.6%
67.500
Nguyễn Sỹ Khoa
Indiv
0.4%
44.000
Nguyễn Thị Thu Nguyệt
Indiv
0.2%
20.000
Lê Việt Hùng
Indiv
0.2%
17.500
Board & Management
Lê Chí Long
Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Đỗ Anh Ngọc
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Công Đức
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Thị Thùy Duyên
Kế toán trưởng
Lê Thị Hạnh
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Quảng Thanh Bình
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a methodology engine — not an advisor. Every number is the deterministic output of a published formula applied to public financial data. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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