SWC

Construction

Tổng Công ty Cổ phần Đường Sông Miền Nam

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Vận tảiCT

27.700

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Medium

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

35.847

Current

27.700

Gap

+29.4%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

87.63%

Kd(1-t)

6.84%

D/(D+E)

12.37%

WACC

11.54%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend2.00%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

26.521

50%DCF Value

45.172

Blended Intrinsic

35.847

Value Decomposition

41%

59%

Explicit period (41%)Terminal value (59%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — SWC

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Fair

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

100

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.49

Moderate

DSRI

0.996

GMI

0.848

AQI

1.111

SGI

0.941

DEPI

0.867

SGAI

1.207

TATA

0.016

LVGI

0.832

SWC exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -2.492, well below the manipulation threshold of -1.78, indicating a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation. However, the earnings quality metrics reveal significant weaknesses, particularly in revenue recognition and receivables management, which could pose risks to financial integrity.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of -2.492 indicates a low likelihood of manipulation, but the earnings quality score of 63.3/100 is concerning, especially with an eq_revenue score of 0.0/100, suggesting potential issues in revenue recognition.

Positive Signals

The eq_accrual score of 93.5/100 indicates strong accrual quality, suggesting that reported earnings are likely backed by actual cash flows.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with 84.4% held by Công ty TNHH MTV Đầu Tư Hạ Tầng Sotrans, which may lead to governance risks and reduced shareholder influence on management decisions.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor cash flow statements and revenue recognition practices, and consider diversifying their portfolio to mitigate risks associated with concentrated ownership.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

6/9

Neutral

Z-Score

7.91

Safe Zone

Sharpe

-0.29

Negative

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

+5.8%

Volatility

38.8%

Max Drawdown

-24.9%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

6.55P/E

P/B1.04

P/S1.88

ROE16.1%

ROA14.3%

EPS4634.62

BVPS29275.77

Gross Margin24.4%

Net Margin28.7%

D/E0.11

Current Ratio4.04

Rev Growth-5.9%

Profit Growth13.4%

EV/EBITDA5.20

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

67.1M

Charter Capital

671.0B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp

Industry (ICB L3)

Vận tải

Sub-industry

Vận tải Thủy

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for SWC — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Công ty TNHH MTV Đầu Tư Hạ Tầng Sotrans

Inst

84.4%

56.6 trieu

Lê Quỳnh Anh

Indiv

11.9%

8.0 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Kho Vận Miền Nam

Inst

8.9%

6.0 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần SCI

Inst

3.7%

2.5 trieu

Nguyễn Thị Thu Thủy

Indiv

2.6%

1.7 trieu

Ngân hàng Thương mại Cổ phần Sài Gòn Thương Tín

Inst

1.4%

918.720

Công ty Cổ phần Chứng khoán Vietcap

Inst

1.2%

831.386

Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư Sài Gòn Thương Tín

Inst

1.2%

772.619

Võ Phúc Nguyên

Indiv

0.6%

434.428

Board & Management

Tô Hữu Hùng

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Trịnh Văn Quý

Kế toán trưởng

Trần Bảo Ngọc

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Trịnh Thị Thơm

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Đặng Doãn Kiên

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Lê Bá Thọ

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc

Trần Tuấn Anh

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Hồ Sĩ Tuấn

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Top connections

VTX3 links SCI55.5%DCV51.0%ONW21.8%SBS2 links IDP14.3%TDM14.0%VC113.4%NAS10.7%HHP8.3%SPM7.6%SGD7.4%

Computed 12/04/2026