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Consumer sector

IDP

Consumer
Công ty Cổ phần Sữa Quốc tế LOF
Thực phẩm và đồ uống/Sản xuất thực phẩmCT
264.000
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Very Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
200.415
Current
264.000
Gap
-24.1%
ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CTThực phẩm và đồ uốngConsumer
Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Thực phẩm và đồ uống" maps to the consumer group
ModelFCF-Based DCF
Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.800
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
10.10%
Ke
10.10%
x
E/(D+E)
49.29%
+
Kd(1-t)
6.17%
x
D/(D+E)
50.71%
=
WACC
10.00%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend4.00%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
Base FCF875.30B
Projection years10
4
Valuation
Base FCF
875.30B
Growth Rate
4.00%
WACC
10.00%
Terminal Growth
4.00%
DCF Value
200.415
Value Decomposition
43%
57%
Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — IDP

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

28
Poor
Accrual Quality
76
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
43
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.11
Moderate
DSRI
1.045
GMI
1.114
AQI
0.515
SGI
0.971
DEPI
3.416
SGAI
1.219
TATA
0.060
LVGI
1.075

The Beneish M-Score of -2.1069 indicates a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is below the threshold of -1.78. However, the Earnings Quality Score of 27.7/100, particularly low cash conversion and revenue quality metrics, raises concerns about the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags
  • Earnings Quality Score of 27.7/100, indicating poor earnings quality.
  • Cash conversion score of 0.0/100 suggests significant issues in converting earnings to cash.
Positive Signals
  • Beneish M-Score of -2.1069, which is below the manipulation threshold, suggesting lower risk of earnings manipulation.
Ownership Risk

The top three institutional shareholders control 78.6% of the company, indicating a strong institutional presence which can stabilize governance but may also lead to conflicts of interest.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor cash flow metrics and earnings quality indicators, and consider a cautious approach until improvements in cash conversion and revenue quality are observed.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
1/9
Weak
Z-Score
3.41
Safe Zone
Sharpe
0.13
Positive
Composite
27
Poor
Price Risk
Momentum
-4.3%
Volatility
47.7%
Max Drawdown
-26.1%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
90.09P/E
P/B4.83
P/S2.12
ROE5.2%
ROA2.4%
EPS2836.17
BVPS52921.86
Gross Margin36.6%
Net Margin2.4%
D/E1.20
Current Ratio1.25
Rev Growth-2.8%
Profit Growth-80.0%
EV/EBITDA52.97
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
61.8M
Charter Capital
618.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Thực phẩm và đồ uống
Industry (ICB L3)
Sản xuất thực phẩm
Sub-industry
Thực phẩm
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for IDP — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Công ty CP Blue Point
Inst
51.8%
32.0 trieu
Công ty Cổ phần Chứng khoán Vietcap
Inst
14.3%
8.8 trieu
DAYTONA INVESTMENTS PTE. LTD
Inst
12.5%
7.7 trieu
Đặng Phạm Minh Loan
Indiv
4.4%
2.7 trieu
Đinh Quang Hoàn
Indiv
2.4%
1.5 trieu
nguyen-phan-minh-khoi
Indiv
2.0%
1.2 trieu
Board & Management
Đặng Phạm Minh Loan4.4%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc
Đinh Quang Hoàn2.4%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Đoàn Hữu Nguyên
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Văn Khoa
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Tôn Minh Phương
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Phan Văn Thắng
Kế toán trưởng/Giám đốc Tài chính
Tô Hải
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Trương Nguyễn Thiên Kim
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Trương Ngọc Hoài Phương
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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