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Construction sector

TCW

Construction
Công ty Cổ phần Kho Vận Tân Cảng
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Vận tảiCT
32.300
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Medium
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
75.627
Current
32.300
Gap
+134.1%
ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CTHàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệpConstruction
Classified as construction because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the construction group
ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend
Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
1.100
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
12.20%
Ke
12.20%
x
E/(D+E)
56.95%
+
Kd(1-t)
6.15%
x
D/(D+E)
43.05%
=
WACC
10.00%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend6.62%
Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
4
Valuation
50%EV/EBITDA Value
45.463
50%DCF Value
105.791
Blended Intrinsic
75.627
Value Decomposition
34%
66%
Explicit period (34%)Terminal value (66%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — TCW

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

73
Good
Accrual Quality
83
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
42
Margin Stability
100
Revenue Quality
24

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.60
Low Risk
DSRI
1.004
GMI
1.052
AQI
0.822
SGI
1.142
DEPI
0.856
SGAI
0.896
TATA
-0.042
LVGI
1.039

TCW exhibits several concerning indicators of potential earnings manipulation, as evidenced by a Beneish M-Score of -2.6015, significantly below the manipulation threshold of -1.78. While the earnings quality score of 72.7 suggests reasonable performance, the low receivables score of 41.5 raises concerns about revenue recognition practices.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of -2.6015 indicates potential earnings manipulation, significantly below the threshold of -1.78.
  • Low receivables quality score of 41.5 suggests possible issues with revenue recognition.
Positive Signals
  • Earnings quality score of 72.7/100 indicates overall good earnings quality.
  • Strong cash conversion score of 100.0/100 suggests effective cash generation from earnings.
Ownership Risk

The majority ownership of 59.0% by Công ty TNHH MTV Tổng Công ty Tân Cảng Sài Gòn could lead to potential conflicts of interest and reduced minority shareholder influence.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor TCW's financial reporting and consider a cautious approach due to elevated risks of earnings manipulation, while also leveraging the strong cash conversion metrics as a potential positive indicator.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
7/9
Strong
Z-Score
3.97
Safe Zone
Sharpe
-0.33
Negative
Composite
66
Fair
Price Risk
Momentum
-2.0%
Volatility
14.2%
Max Drawdown
-28.6%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
5.72P/E
P/B1.72
P/S0.53
ROE31.5%
ROA16.2%
EPS5633.32
BVPS18757.73
Gross Margin22.7%
Net Margin9.3%
D/E0.81
Current Ratio1.71
Rev Growth14.2%
Profit Growth16.6%
EV/EBITDA2.90
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
20.0M
Charter Capital
199.9B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
Industry (ICB L3)
Vận tải
Sub-industry
Kho bãi, hậu cần và bảo dưỡng
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for TCW — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Công ty TNHH MTV Tổng Công ty Tân Cảng Sài Gòn
Inst
59.0%
11.8 trieu
Phùng Ngọc Minh
Indiv
0.3%
49.211
Bùi Quang Huy
Indiv
0.1%
20.801
Trịnh Văn Mợi
Indiv
0.1%
25.642
Board & Management
Bùi Quang Huy0.1%
Giám đốc
Trịnh Văn Mợi0.1%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Võ Thị Xuân Lan
Phó Giám đốc
Nguyễn Thị Hồng Liên
Kế toán trưởng
Trần Minh Lãng
Phó Giám đốc
Nguyễn Thị Thúy Nga
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Trần Quang Thảo
Phó Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Thị Thu Hà
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Bùi Văn Bằng
Phó Giám đốc
Đoàn Phi
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Giám đốc
Nguyễn Hồng Sơn
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Ngô Văn Ngự
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Đỗ Xuân Minh
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a methodology engine — not an advisor. Every number is the deterministic output of a published formula applied to public financial data. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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