IST

Construction

Công ty Cổ phần ICD Tân Cảng Sóng Thần

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Vận tảiCT

38.600

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

29.356

Current

38.600

Gap

-23.9%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

46.20%

Kd(1-t)

6.40%

D/(D+E)

53.80%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend8.36%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

37.721

50%DCF Value

20.992

Blended Intrinsic

29.356

Value Decomposition

34%

66%

Explicit period (34%)Terminal value (66%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — IST

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Good

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

100

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

100

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2024

-2.79

Low Risk

DSRI

0.937

GMI

0.960

AQI

1.011

SGI

1.092

DEPI

0.976

SGAI

1.035

TATA

-0.064

LVGI

1.016

IST exhibits a strong earnings quality score of 93.6, indicating robust cash conversion and revenue recognition practices. The Beneish M-Score of -2.7867 is well below the manipulation threshold, suggesting a low likelihood of earnings manipulation.

Positive Signals

Earnings quality score of 93.6/100 indicates strong financial health and reliability in reported earnings.
Cash conversion and revenue recognition metrics are perfect at 100.0/100, highlighting effective operational efficiency.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with 51% held by a single state-owned enterprise, which may pose risks related to governance and potential conflicts of interest.

Recommendation

Investors should consider IST as a stable investment due to its strong earnings quality and low risk of manipulation, while remaining vigilant about the implications of concentrated ownership.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

7/9

Strong

Z-Score

2.92

Grey Zone

Sharpe

0.02

Positive

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

+7.2%

Volatility

92.0%

Max Drawdown

-31.3%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

6.24P/E

P/B1.87

P/S1.00

ROE32.2%

ROA15.5%

EPS5495.90

BVPS18312.57

Gross Margin29.8%

Net Margin16.1%

D/E0.97

Current Ratio0.94

Rev Growth12.5%

Profit Growth25.9%

EV/EBITDA3.42

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

15.0M

Charter Capital

150.1B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp

Industry (ICB L3)

Vận tải

Sub-industry

Kho bãi, hậu cần và bảo dưỡng

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for IST — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Công ty TNHH MTV Tổng Công ty Tân Cảng Sài Gòn

Inst

51.0%

7.7 trieu

Công ty Cổ Phần Hàng Hải Á Châu

Inst

24.0%

3.6 trieu

Công ty Cổ Phần Tiếp Vận Tân Cảng - Bình Dương

Inst

3.9%

473.524

Vũ Thị Thùy Trang

Indiv

0.8%

100.000

Lưu Phước Hồng

Indiv

0.1%

14.122

Hồ Hải Đăng

Indiv

0.1%

12.400

Board & Management

Hồ Hải Đăng0.1%

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin

TRẦN TRÍ DŨNG

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Giám đốc

Nguyễn Thị Minh Hương

Kế toán trưởng

Nguyễn Quang Ngọc

Phó Giám đốc

Thành Quang Vinh

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Việt Hưng

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Phạm Thị Hồng Nhung

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Phạm Thanh Sơn

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Giám đốc

Vũ Thị Lan Anh

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Sơn

Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Dương Thị Thu Trang

Người phụ trách quản trị công ty

Trần Hồng Diễm

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Top connections

TCW59.0%ILB51.3%TCL51.0%PNP51.0%TOS51.0%CLL51.0%MBB51.0%DIC6.9%GVT5.3%KTT4.7%SRF4.1%ELC1.8%

Computed 12/04/2026