TOS
CyclicalsValuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Valuation Track Record
Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — TOS
Earnings Quality
Fiscal year 2025
Financial Forensics
Beneish M-Score · 2025
The Beneish M-Score of -2.0161 indicates that TOS is not likely involved in earnings manipulation, as it is below the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality metrics reveal significant weaknesses, particularly in revenue recognition, which may pose risks to financial stability.
- Earnings Quality Score of 70.6/100 indicates moderate quality, particularly concerning revenue recognition at 20.6/100, suggesting potential issues with revenue reporting.
- The SGI of 1.3837 indicates a high sales growth rate, which may not be sustainable and could lead to future earnings volatility.
- The DSRI of 0.5942 suggests that accounts receivable are well-managed relative to sales, indicating potential efficiency in revenue collection.
- The AQI of 2.0398 is relatively high, suggesting that the company has a good level of accrual quality, which is a positive indicator for earnings reliability.
The ownership structure shows a significant concentration with 36.0% held by a state-owned enterprise, which may lead to potential conflicts of interest and governance risks. However, the presence of individual shareholders can provide a level of oversight.
Investors should closely monitor revenue recognition practices and consider conducting further due diligence on the sustainability of sales growth. It may be prudent to maintain a cautious stance until clearer indicators of financial stability emerge.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
Company Overview
// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK
> mapping common ownership for TOS — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate