ILB

Construction

Công ty Cổ phần ICD Tân Cảng - Long Bình

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Vận tảiCT

21.600

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Medium

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

47.956

Current

21.600

Gap

+122.0%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

36.23%

Kd(1-t)

6.38%

D/(D+E)

63.77%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend4.59%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

30.327

50%DCF Value

65.585

Blended Intrinsic

47.956

Value Decomposition

35%

65%

Explicit period (35%)Terminal value (65%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — ILB

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Good

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

100

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.39

Moderate

DSRI

0.930

GMI

1.029

AQI

0.884

SGI

1.157

DEPI

1.207

SGAI

1.231

TATA

0.003

LVGI

0.846

ILB exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -2.3876, indicating a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is well below the threshold of -1.78. However, the SGI and SGAI metrics suggest potential concerns regarding sales growth and administrative expenses, which may warrant further scrutiny.

Red Flags

SGI of 1.1575 indicates sales growth that exceeds industry norms, which could signal aggressive revenue recognition.
SGAI of 1.2315 suggests rising selling, general, and administrative expenses, potentially indicating inefficiencies or mismanagement.

Positive Signals

Earnings Quality Score of 78.7/100 reflects strong accruals (98.8/100) and receivables management (100.0/100), indicating robust financial health.
Beneish M-Score of -2.3876 is significantly below the manipulation threshold, suggesting a lower risk of earnings manipulation.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with 51.3% held by a state-owned enterprise, which may lead to potential conflicts of interest and governance issues.

Recommendation

Investors should monitor the company's sales growth and administrative expenses closely while considering the strong earnings quality metrics as a positive indicator. A thorough review of financial statements and management practices is advisable before making investment decisions.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

4/9

Neutral

Z-Score

1.17

Distress Zone

Sharpe

-1.04

Negative

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

-16.0%

Volatility

25.0%

Max Drawdown

-31.0%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

8.55P/E

P/B1.06

P/S1.51

ROE14.9%

ROA5.9%

EPS2659.68

BVPS21404.04

Gross Margin37.3%

Net Margin17.7%

D/E1.17

Current Ratio1.08

Rev Growth15.7%

Profit Growth4.3%

EV/EBITDA3.58

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

38.2M

Charter Capital

382.0B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp

Industry (ICB L3)

Vận tải

Sub-industry

Kho bãi, hậu cần và bảo dưỡng

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for ILB — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Công ty TNHH MTV Tổng Công ty Tân Cảng Sài Gòn

Inst

51.3%

19.6 trieu

america limited liability company

Inst

12.8%

4.9 trieu

Nguyễn Bích Hòa

Indiv

1.4%

343.750

Công ty Cổ phần Chứng khoán MB

Inst

1.3%

325.020

Quỹ Đầu tư Cân bằng Tuệ Sáng Vinacapital

Inst

1.0%

235.000

TRẦN TRIỆU PHÚ

Indiv

0.5%

120.750

Công ty TNHH Bảo hiểm nhân thọ CHUBB Việt Nam

Inst

0.3%

62.300

Lâm Thị Diễm Trinh

Indiv

0.2%

63.126

Ngô Trọng Phàn

Indiv

0.2%

37.500

Công ty TNHH bảo hiểm Hanwha Life Việt Nam

Inst

0.1%

30.500

Trần Hoàng Lân

Indiv

0.1%

25.710

Board & Management

TRẦN TRIỆU PHÚ0.5%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Phan Anh Tuấn

Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Cao Ngọc Đức

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Thành Nhân

Phó Giám đốc

Đoàn Thị Hằng

Phó Giám đốc

Lê Quỳnh Quang

Kế toán trưởng

Ngô Quốc Tuấn

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin

Nguyễn Đức Khiêm

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Trần Nghĩa Sĩ

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Thái Hoàng Lam

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Phạm Văn Phòng

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Top connections

TCW59.0%IST51.3%TCL2 links PNP51.3%TOS51.3%CLL51.3%MBB51.3%SGN25.0%WCS23.6%DNM22.7%WSS22.5%IDV18.0%

Computed 12/04/2026