TCL

Construction

Công ty Cổ phần Đại lý Giao nhận Vận tải Xếp dỡ Tân Cảng

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Vận tảiCT

33.550

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

High

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

81.339

Current

33.550

Gap

+142.4%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

59.90%

Kd(1-t)

6.59%

D/(D+E)

40.10%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend5.33%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

39.702

50%DCF Value

122.976

Blended Intrinsic

81.339

Value Decomposition

35%

65%

Explicit period (35%)Terminal value (65%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — TCL

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Good

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

100

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-3.20

Low Risk

DSRI

0.652

GMI

1.090

AQI

1.093

SGI

1.133

DEPI

0.984

SGAI

0.927

TATA

-0.134

LVGI

0.968

TCL exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -3.2049, significantly below the manipulation threshold, indicating a low likelihood of earnings manipulation. The company's earnings quality score of 84.6/100, particularly strong in cash conversion and receivables, further supports the integrity of its financial reporting.

Positive Signals

Beneish M-Score of -3.2049, well below the manipulation threshold of -1.78, indicating low risk of earnings manipulation.
Earnings Quality Score of 84.6/100, with perfect scores in cash conversion and receivables, suggesting strong operational efficiency.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with Công ty TNHH MTV Tổng Công ty Tân Cảng Sài Gòn holding 51.0%, which may pose risks related to governance and minority shareholder rights.

Recommendation

Investors should monitor the company's operational performance closely, while the strong earnings quality metrics suggest a favorable investment opportunity in the current market context.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

6/9

Neutral

Z-Score

3.85

Safe Zone

Sharpe

-0.85

Negative

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

-8.7%

Volatility

15.9%

Max Drawdown

-20.0%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

6.46P/E

P/B1.47

P/S0.55

ROE23.8%

ROA13.6%

EPS5196.13

BVPS22807.33

Gross Margin14.0%

Net Margin8.5%

D/E0.67

Current Ratio1.82

Rev Growth13.3%

Profit Growth7.3%

EV/EBITDA4.91

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

30.2M

Charter Capital

301.6B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp

Industry (ICB L3)

Vận tải

Sub-industry

Dịch vụ vận tải

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for TCL — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Công ty TNHH MTV Tổng Công ty Tân Cảng Sài Gòn

Inst

51.0%

15.4 trieu

Ngân hàng Deutsche Aktiengesellschaft

Inst

7.3%

1.5 trieu

america limited liability company

Inst

5.0%

1.5 trieu

Vietnam Equity Holding

Inst

4.6%

968.979

PYN Elite Fund

Inst

4.5%

1.4 trieu

Công ty Cổ Phần Container Saigon

Inst

1.1%

233.750

Phạm Kim Oanh

Indiv

0.5%

160.761

Công ty Cổ phần Tân Cảng V.F

Inst

0.4%

77.913

Nguyễn Đăng Nghiêm

Indiv

0.1%

39.543

Võ Đắc Thiệu

Indiv

0.1%

37.516

Board & Management

Võ Đắc Thiệu0.1%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Đào Tuấn Anh

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin

Nguyễn Xuân Bình

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Lê Hoàng Linh

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Lê Văn Cường

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Giám đốc

Phạm Văn Hùng

Phó Giám đốc

Nguyễn Thị Nhu

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Châu Thanh Hải

Phó Giám đốc

Hoàng Đức Thịnh

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Phạm Văn Phượng

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Đặng Thanh Sơn

Phó Giám đốc

Phạm Thị Thu Hà

Kế toán trưởng

Lê Thị Kim Chung

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Top connections

TCW59.0%ILB2 links IST51.0%PNP2 links TOS51.0%CLL51.0%MBB2 links SGN25.0%MVC24.9%WCS23.6%DNM22.7%AMS19.1%

Computed 12/04/2026