VNVALUEVNVALUE
Updated weekly
Back to Dashboard
Cyclicals sector

ECO

Cyclicals
Công ty Cổ Phần Nhựa Sinh Thái Việt Nam
Hóa chấtCT
31.500
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Very Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
25.432
Current
31.500
Gap
-19.3%
ModelEV EBITDA MIDCYCLE

Valuation Breakdown

CTHóa chấtCyclical
Classified as cyclical because ICB sector "Hóa chất" maps to the cyclical group
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA31.70B
Fair EV/EBITDA28.4x
Years of data3
2
Valuation
Mid-Cycle EBITDA
31.70B
x
Fair EV/EBITDA
28.4x
-
Net Debt
138.88B
=
Equity Value
25.432
Years of data3

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — ECO

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

25
Poor
Accrual Quality
48
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
83

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-1.31
High Risk
DSRI
1.514
GMI
0.801
AQI
1.931
SGI
1.029
DEPI
0.655
SGAI
1.252
TATA
0.145
LVGI
1.595

ECO exhibits several concerning indicators that suggest potential earnings manipulation, particularly with a Beneish M-Score of -1.3092, which is above the manipulation threshold of -1.78. The low earnings quality score of 25.2/100, especially the cash conversion score of 0.0/100, raises significant red flags regarding the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of -1.3092 indicates potential earnings manipulation, as it is above the threshold of -1.78.
  • Earnings Quality Score of 25.2/100, with a cash conversion score of 0.0/100, suggests severe issues in converting earnings into cash.
  • High DSRI of 1.5140 indicates that accounts receivable are growing faster than revenue, which may signal aggressive revenue recognition practices.
Positive Signals
  • SGI of 1.0292 indicates stable sales growth, which is a positive sign in the context of overall market performance.
  • Strong gross margin of 82.6/100 suggests that the company maintains a healthy profitability level despite concerns in other areas.
Ownership Risk

The concentrated ownership structure, with the top three shareholders holding 69% of the shares, raises concerns about governance and potential conflicts of interest, particularly in decision-making processes.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and closely monitor ECO's financial disclosures and cash flow statements. It is advisable to wait for improved earnings quality metrics and clearer governance practices before considering an investment.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
2/9
Weak
Z-Score
4.06
Safe Zone
Sharpe
1.43
Excellent
Composite
47
Weak
Price Risk
Momentum
+243.1%
Volatility
50.1%
Max Drawdown
-30.9%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
48.63P/E
P/B2.72
P/S1.38
ROE5.7%
ROA3.5%
EPS663.55
BVPS11883.50
Gross Margin8.2%
Net Margin2.8%
D/E0.85
Current Ratio2.34
Rev Growth3.0%
Profit Growth-5.9%
EV/EBITDA28.45
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
30.0M
Charter Capital
300.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hóa chất
Industry (ICB L3)
Hóa chất
Sub-industry
Nhựa, cao su & sợi
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for ECO — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Lê Văn Hoan
Indiv
39.0%
0
Nguyễn Văn Bính
Indiv
20.0%
6.0 trieu
Phạm Thanh Lâm
Indiv
10.0%
0
nguyen-thi-luong
Indiv
4.9%
1.5 trieu
Đào Quốc Hùng
Indiv
1.5%
450.000
nguyen-dinh-tuan
Indiv
1.5%
450.000
nguyen-thanh-an
Indiv
0.8%
150.000
Đỗ Thị Duyên
Indiv
0.8%
224.250
Trần Ngọc Phương
Indiv
0.3%
50.000
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a methodology engine — not an advisor. Every number is the deterministic output of a published formula applied to public financial data. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

By using vnvalue you accept the Terms of Service and Privacy Policy. Full disclaimer →