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Consumer sector

TNV

Consumer
Công ty Cổ phần Thống Nhất Hà Nội
Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng/Hàng cá nhânCT
17.600
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Very Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
1.196
Current
17.600
Gap
-93.2%
ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CTHàng cá nhân & Gia dụngConsumer
Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng" maps to the consumer group
ModelFCF-Based DCF
Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.800
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
10.10%
Ke
10.10%
x
E/(D+E)
72.07%
+
Kd(1-t)
9.27%
x
D/(D+E)
27.93%
=
WACC
10.00%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend3.25%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
Base FCF4.31B
Projection years10
4
Valuation
Base FCF
4.31B
Growth Rate
3.25%
WACC
10.00%
Terminal Growth
4.00%
DCF Value
1.196
Value Decomposition
43%
57%
Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — TNV

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

50
Fair
Accrual Quality
61
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
100

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.28
Moderate
DSRI
0.639
GMI
0.965
AQI
0.910
SGI
1.202
DEPI
0.868
SGAI
1.072
TATA
0.097
LVGI
1.073

TNV exhibits several concerning indicators regarding earnings quality and potential manipulation, particularly with a Beneish M-Score of -2.2847, which suggests a low likelihood of earnings manipulation. However, the significant ownership by state and institutional investors may provide some stability.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of -2.2847 indicates potential manipulation risk, as it is below the threshold of -1.78.
  • Earnings Quality Score of 50.4/100 is below average, with a cash conversion score of 0.0/100, indicating poor cash flow relative to earnings.
Positive Signals
  • High receivables score of 100.0/100 suggests effective management of accounts receivable, which is a positive indicator for revenue collection.
Ownership Risk

The combined ownership of 86.7% by state and institutional investors may mitigate some risks associated with management practices, but it also raises concerns about potential government influence and lack of minority shareholder rights.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor TNV's cash flow performance and earnings quality metrics while considering a cautious approach due to elevated risk factors. It may be prudent to wait for improved transparency and cash conversion before increasing exposure.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
5/9
Neutral
Z-Score
3.91
Safe Zone

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
13.76P/E
P/B1.65
P/S1.88
ROE14.3%
ROA10.3%
EPS1409.23
BVPS10565.55
Gross Margin18.4%
Net Margin15.2%
D/E0.41
Current Ratio1.53
Rev Growth20.2%
Profit Growth674.7%
EV/EBITDA31.93
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
23.7M
Charter Capital
237.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng
Industry (ICB L3)
Hàng cá nhân
Sub-industry
Hàng cá nhân
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for TNV — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Ủy Ban Nhân Dân Thành Phố Hà Nội
State
45.0%
10.7 trieu
Công ty Cổ Phần Đầu Tư Vsd
Inst
41.7%
9.9 trieu
Đinh Vũ Minh Việt
Indiv
0.3%
79.502
Phạm Văn Minh
Indiv
0.2%
49.900
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a methodology engine — not an advisor. Every number is the deterministic output of a published formula applied to public financial data. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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