TRV

Construction

Công ty Cổ Phần Vận tải Đường sắt

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Vận tảiCT

13.500

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

33.651

Current

13.500

Gap

+149.3%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

30.81%

Kd(1-t)

6.40%

D/(D+E)

69.19%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

Sector Default3.00%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

50.632

50%DCF Value

16.670

Blended Intrinsic

33.651

Value Decomposition

35%

65%

Explicit period (35%)Terminal value (65%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — TRV

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Good

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

2.54

High Risk

DSRI

0.137

GMI

0.710

AQI

1.788

SGI

7.805

DEPI

0.166

SGAI

1.034

TATA

-0.072

LVGI

0.960

The Beneish M-Score of 2.535 significantly exceeds the manipulation threshold of -1.78, indicating potential earnings manipulation. However, the company's high earnings quality score of 89.7 suggests strong cash conversion and receivables management, which mitigates some concerns.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of 2.535 indicates a high likelihood of earnings manipulation, exceeding the threshold of -1.78.
SGI of 7.8050 suggests aggressive growth that may not be sustainable, raising concerns about revenue recognition practices.

Positive Signals

Earnings Quality Score of 89.7/100 indicates strong cash conversion and effective receivables management.
Cash conversion metric of 100.0/100 reflects excellent operational efficiency.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with Tổng Công ty Đường sắt Việt Nam holding 87.3%, which may lead to governance risks and reduced minority shareholder influence.

Recommendation

Investors should conduct further due diligence on revenue recognition practices and monitor for signs of sustainability in growth. Consider a cautious approach given the elevated risk of earnings manipulation.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

8/9

Strong

Z-Score

2.47

Grey Zone

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

28.47P/E

P/B2.34

P/S0.34

ROE8.6%

ROA2.6%

EPS471.18

BVPS5729.20

Gross Margin8.8%

Net Margin1.2%

D/E2.10

Current Ratio0.73

Rev Growth679.8%

Profit Growth4387.9%

EV/EBITDA7.40

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

130.4M

Charter Capital

1303.7B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp

Industry (ICB L3)

Vận tải

Sub-industry

Đường sắt

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for TRV — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Tổng Công ty Đường sắt Việt Nam

Inst

87.3%

113.8 trieu

Top connections

TSG87.3%CT387.3%RAT87.3%CT687.3%TVG87.3%

Computed 12/04/2026