TVG
Công ty Cổ phần Tư vấn Đầu tư và Xây dựng Giao thông Vận tải
Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 11.700
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 13.124
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- The closing price is too old for comparison.
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 18 Oct 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.
Technical details
Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.
Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 95.91100th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 0.8%33rd pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The package shows mixed signals: the Beneish M-Score is -0.4529 (91st percentile versus Vietnamese peers, year-over-year change +1.90) indicating accounting metrics that are more aggressive than most local peers, while the Earnings-Quality composite is high at 90.0/100 with perfect scores on accruals, cash conversion and receivables but a weak margin-quality score of 43.5/100. Liquidity/solvency metrics are concerning (Altman Z-Score 1.19, in the distress zone) even as the Piotroski F-Score is strong at 7/9; ownership is highly concentrated among four individuals holding about 85.8% together.
- Beneish M-Score -0.4529 (measures a combination of eight financial ratios that Beneish found correlate with earnings manipulation); the company ranks in the 91st percentile among Vietnamese peers (higher = more aggressive accounting vs VN peers) and the M-Score moved +1.90 year-over-year, which flags a notable upward trajectory in the score compared with local peers.
- AQI (Accounting Quality Index) = 10.0000 (measures unusual accounting attributes across adjusted earnings and balance-sheet items); a value this high is an outlier and merits closer inspection of the components behind it.
- SGI (Sales Growth Index) = 1.9064 (measures sales growth relative to the prior year); high SGI can make aggressive accounting more likely because fast growth strains controls and revenue recognition.
- Altman Z-Score = 1.19 (measures distance to bankruptcy using profitability, leverage, liquidity and activity ratios); 1.19 sits in the distress zone and indicates low buffer against financial stress.
- Margin-quality 43.5/100 (measures stability/persistence of profit margins); a below-average margin-quality score suggests profit margins are volatile or backed by non-recurring items.
- TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = -0.3566 (measures whether accruals are large relative to assets); a materially negative TATA indicates large non-cash items affecting reported profit that should be reconciled with cash flows and notes.
- Director-deal registrations: 0 sale registrations and 11 purchase registrations (7 registrants) totalling 1,844,741 shares; net registered volume equals +90.89% of shares outstanding (registrations are intentions disclosed to the exchange, not confirmed executed trades), which is an unusually large cumulative registered buy volume.
- Earnings-Quality 90.0/100 (an aggregate score measuring multiple dimensions of earnings reliability); this is strong overall.
- Accruals quality 100.0/100 (measures whether accruals are consistent and not extreme relative to peers); indicates reported profits are not driven by unstable accrual patterns.
- Cash conversion 100.0/100 and Vietnam three-year cash conversion = 95.91 (operating cash flow / net profit over 3 years; company is at the 100th percentile among Vietnamese non-financials for the three-year test, but note low cash conversion is bad — here the score indicates cash is supporting profits), meaning profits largely convert to cash over the period.
- Receivables quality 100.0/100 and receivables outside the trade cycle = 0.8% of total assets (33rd percentile) (measures prepayments, loans receivable and other non-trade receivables); low percent of non-trade receivables reduces concern about disguised financing or large related-party receivables.
- Piotroski F-Score 7/9 (measures nine signals of fundamental strength such as profitability, leverage, liquidity and operating efficiency); a 7 indicates generally healthy operating fundamentals.
Ownership is highly concentrated: four individual shareholders hold 24.9%, 24.3%, 20.0% and 16.6% respectively (total ~85.8%), with a fifth at 4.9%. This concentration and the large registered insider purchase intentions (+90.89% of shares outstanding in registrations) are notable governance facts to consider when reviewing affiliated-party disclosures and board-related decisions.
- Compare the consolidated statement of cash flows (operating cash flow) for FY2023–FY2025 with reported net profit to verify the three-year cash conversion ratio cited (95.91) and reconcile any material timing differences in operating cash flow to notes on working capital and non-cash adjustments.
- Inspect the notes and schedules for ‘Receivables’, ‘Loans to related parties’, and ‘Prepayments’ to confirm the composition and balance that produce the 0.8% of total assets figure labelled as receivables outside the trade cycle.
- Reconcile the components of total accruals (TATA = -0.3566) by comparing changes in working-capital lines and non-cash expense notes (depreciation, provisions, impairment) to the profit-and-loss and cash-flow statements.
- Review director-deal registration disclosures and the related-party/insider shareholding note to see which insiders registered purchase volume, the stated purpose of registrations, and whether any registered trades were subsequently executed and reported.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.78
- P/S
- 0.54
- ROE
- 0.5%
- ROA
- 0.2%
- EPS
- 73
- BVPS
- 15.048
- Gross Margin
- 52.5%
- Net Margin
- 0.3%
- D/E
- 0.90
- Current Ratio
- 1.33
- EV/EBITDA
- 7.40
- Div Yield
- 14.5%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 2.0M
- Charter Capital
- 20.3B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Sub-industry
- Xây dựng
- Company Type
- CT